Orioles-Marlins series preview: A trip to Miami

Wow that was ugly. After a four-game sweep by the hands of the Yankees, the Orioles are doing just like the snowbirds, leaving the Bronx for the sunny local weather of Miami, and admittedly, it is a reduction.

The Marlins are a much less scary opponent, however they can not be taken frivolously, both. (And these hot-and-cold Orioles have had a manner of enjoying down to the competitors, so you possibly can by no means get too cocky.) At 16-19, they’re holding down second place within the NL East. They, too, have hot-or-cold tendencies: they took two of three from the mighty Dodgers final week, however have additionally just lately dropped series to St. Louis and Milwaukee.

The Marlins, unusually, are a good-hitting group this yr. They’re not a lot within the energy division with a fourth-lowest 25 homers, however their collective .252 common outranks all however seven groups. As a group, they have been led by three gamers enjoying out of their minds: shortstop Otto Lopez (.341 BA and an MLB-leading 45 hits in 33 video games), second baseman Xavier Edwards (.336 BA, .896 OPS) and catcher Liam Hicks (.309 BA, .923 OPS). Hicks, in simply his second yr, has practically exceeded his WAR from 120 video games his rookie season. Former Orioles buddies have not excelled: Kyle Stowers has missed time due to a hamstring, and infielder Connor Norby has simply been just-OK, with a .238 common and 107 OPS+ to this point.

Miami’s beginning pitching workers has been a weak spot during the last two seasons, regardless of having a man like Sandy Alcantara fronting it. This yr, the rotation is simply above common, whereas the group’s fundamental weak spot lies within the bullpen. The group has blown 9 video games through which they’d a lead, which looks like a sizeable quantity to me. Closer Pete Fairbanks is on the 15-day IL with nerve irritation, and others, like Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi and Calvin Faucher, have been ineffective.

Following accidents to Trevor Rogers and Dean Kremer, a pitching-strapped O’s might be countered with Chris Bassitt, Brandon Young and Cade Povich. Young and Povich specifically are giving Little Engine That Could vibes: you root exhausting for them, however continuously view them as outmatched.

Game 1: Tuesday, May 5, 6:40 ET

Chris Bassitt (2-2, 5.46, 17 SO) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.04 ERA, 31 SO)

Alcantara opened 2026 along with his franchise-record sixth straight Opening Day begin, throwing 7 shutout innings towards the Rockies. He adopted that up with a complete-game shutout of the White Sox on April 1, hanging out seven and permitting simply three hits in a 10-0 break. After his tough 2025—a full season again from Tommy John surgical procedure that produced a 5.36 ERA—this appears to be like extra just like the classic Alcantara, with a fastball that usually sits round 97 mph and maxes out round 101. His 3.04 ERA comes with a stable 1.16 WHIP.

Signs Chris Bassitt is figuring it out: he is given up one earned run or fewer in three of his final 4 begins. Signs he isn’t: the Royals tagged him for 5 runs on eight hits on April 22. The veteran righty has a profession 3.68 ERA. I select to imagine.

Game 2: Wednesday, May 6, 6:40 ET

Brandon Young (2-1, 6.14 ERA, 9 SO) vs. RHP Eury Pérez (2-3, 4.46 ERA, 39 SO)

Eury Pérez is 23 years previous and already appears to have lived a lifetime in pitcher years. He debuted in 2023 at age 20, posting a pleasant 3.15 ERA in 19 begins. Then I missed all of 2024 with Tommy John. A 4.25 ERA on his return appeared like a dip, however he had a robust 1.05 WHIP and three.67 FIP. This season has been his worst to this point: his 4.63 FIP suggests he is getting hit, exhausting, and so does a 13.9% barrel proportion within the backside seventh percentile of pitchers. The strikeout stuff could be very a lot current, however he is additionally strolling extra hitters than he ever has. This is the matchup the Orioles want to reap the benefits of.

Thrust into the rotation by Dean Kremer’s quad harm, the massive Texan has had one good begin in three tries: a scoreless 5 innings towards the White Sox on April 6. Since, he is given up three runs in 5 ⅔ innings towards Boston and—gulp—ten runs in 4 innings towards Houston. There’s been discuss Young engaged on his offspeed pitches within the offseason: if that’s the case, this is able to be an excellent time to see it.

Game 3: Thursday, May 7, 6:40 ET

Cade Povich (1-1, 4.41 ERA, 11 SO) vs. RHP Max Meyer (1-0, 3.30 ERA, 33 SO)

Drafted third general by the Marlins in 2020, Max Meyer is at the moment Miami’s greatest starter in sheer WAR (1.1, edging out Alcantara’s 1.0). Through seven begins he has a 3.30 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 30⅔ innings, averaging 9.9 Ok/9, with opponents hitting simply .207 towards him. Length is not a power of his, but, as he is averaging simply 5 innings per outing, however he is been efficient. His most up-to-date begin noticed him throw 5 scoreless innings towards the Giants.

The solely southpaw within the rotation proper now, Cade Povich is at all times teetering on the sting of success within the main leagues, it looks like. But inevitably he’ll flash his vital strikeout potential, then lay an egg. This inconsistency works out to a form of consistency, as I’ve posted practically an identical ERA’s in 2023 and ’24: 5.20, give or take one hundredths of some extent. Like Young, Povich was not supposed to be within the rotation, however that is the place we’re. In three begins to this point, he is allowed eight runs in 16.1 innings.

It’s exhausting to really feel large optimism in regards to the Orioles proper now, contemporary off a sweep within the Bronx and placing out a starter lineup of Bassitt, Young and Povich heading into Miami. Injuries stink, however this backup plan feels extra typical of a rebuilding yr than what followers have been promised for these subsequent few seasons. Maybe I’m only a grouch. We’ll see if these early May doldrums find yourself characterizing the season.

So, Birdland devoted, how do you suppose the Orioles will fare on their trip to the 305? Sound off within the feedback.