Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 4 Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 4, which kicks off Thursday night time with a sport between the Steelers and Browns.
This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances, and in fact, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to show you how to with all kinds of decision-making, together with sit/begin, last-minute waiver provides and lineup selections.
Additionally, now we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns right here. Using our play-by-play knowledge, we’re in a position to determine defensive schemes and the place every broad receiver and cornerback strains up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we are able to supply one of the best fantasy steerage every week.
All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively customary scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 Okay, 1 D/ST), though I’ll typically point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for not less than 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is mechanically decided utilizing a proprietary metric that elements in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection.
(Editor’s be aware: Projections and rankings will align nearly completely, however generally when a projection is shut, a participant is perhaps ranked barely larger or decrease due to different elements, together with upside or danger. This column is topic to updates in the course of the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will all the time be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)
PIT-CLE | IND-WAS | NE-BUF | NYJ-CHI | JAX-CIN | ARI-NYG | LAR-PHI | GB-TB
TEN-BAL | DAL-HOU | MIA-MIN | KC-LV | DEN-SF | LAC-SEA | DET-CAR | ATL-NO
Projected rating: Steelers 19, Browns 17
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren
Fantasy scoop: Harold Fannin Jr. busted out with a 7-51-2 receiving line on 9 targets in Week 3. The second-year tight finish got here out slowly with simply 21 yards on three targets in Week 1 however improved to a 5-54-0 line on six targets in Week 2 previous to Sunday’s massive sport. Fannin’s snaps (85%) and route participation (85%) are up massive from final season and his goal share (22.0%) is up barely.
As lengthy as Deshaun Watson continues to play at a satisfactory stage, Fannin might be positioned for TE1 fantasy manufacturing. He’s a fringe top-10 choice in opposition to a Steelers protection that allowed Mike Gesicki to seek out the tip zone final week.
Over/below: 35.9 (Lowest)
Win chance: Steelers 60% (eighth highest)
Projected rating: Colts 26, Commanders 24
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: Keenan Allen put collectively a 6-63-1 receiving line on 9 targets in Week 3. This, after the veteran receiver totaled a 7-37-0 line on 11 targets throughout Weeks 1-2. Allen actually loved a lift in utilization with Alec Pierce sidelined, however we have seen this story earlier than. In 2025 with the Chargers, Allen averaged a wholesome 7.0 targets per sport (22.1% share). However, that allowed him solely 10.7 fantasy PPG, most of which got here within the first half of the season. In reality, previous to Sunday, Allen had gone 12 straight video games with below 11 fantasy factors.
Allen will not be a super WR3 choice in most weeks, however he is on the radar in opposition to a Washington protection that has allowed essentially the most catches, touchdowns and fantasy factors to broad receivers this season.
Over/below: 49.8 (third highest)
Win chance: Colts 58% (tenth highest)
Projected rating: Bills 28, Patriots 21
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III, DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid
Fantasy scoop: Drake Maye was unable to get again on monitor in Jacksonville final week and now has only one landing cross (and six interceptions) on the season. The 2025 MVP finalist has been held below 210 passing yards in all three video games, and his effectivity ranks among the many worst on the place.
On the plus aspect, Maye has been coping with a tricky schedule (Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars), and the slate lightens up shifting ahead. That contains this week in opposition to a Buffalo protection that sits within the high eight in yards, TDs and fantasy factors allowed to QBs. Additionally, Maye is on tempo for 465 speeding yards, which is up barely from 2025.
Maye’s poor play means he belongs glued to benches this week, however he should not be despatched to waivers simply but.
Over/below: 49.3 (4th highest)
Win chance: Bills 74% (fifth highest)
Projected rating: Bears 23, Jets 21
Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Garrett Wilson, Luther Burden III
Fantasy scoop: Breece Hall is predicted to overlook this sport, which positions Braelon Allen as New York’s lead again. Allen has served as a transparent backup all through his profession and hasn’t fared significantly nicely (3.7 YPC, 4.8 YPT), however he has been busy off the bench this season, totaling 19 carries and 5 targets by means of three video games. The 2024 fourth-round choose is among the league’s greater backs and figures to deal with major early down and goal-line work.
Isaiah Davis will even be concerned. While he would not have any touches this season, he did rack up 64 touches behind Hall final season and has been efficient in a small pattern of labor over his profession (5.6 YPC, 6.2 YPT).
Allen ought to see sufficient work to warrant flex consideration in opposition to a Bears protection that has struggled in opposition to backs this season, together with Saquon Barkley on “Monday Night Football.”
Over/below: 44.3 (eleventh highest)
Win chance: Bears 58% (eleventh highest)
Projected rating: Jaguars 26, Bengals 24
Lineup locks: Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Parker Washington, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: Bhayshul Tuten simply misses the “lineup lock” lower. The second-year again’s speeding manufacturing has been about as constant as you will see (13-66-0, 13-65-1, 15-73-1), however he is benefited fairly a bit from sport script — Jacksonville has been forward or tied on a league-high 97% of offensive snaps.
Tuten continues to rotate with three different backs. As a end result, he has performed on solely 49% of snaps, has dealt with simply 52% of the runs and been restricted to solely 5 targets (a 7% share). Tuten’s speeding quantity and effectivity are sufficient to maintain him within the RB2 combine, however a lift in receiving work might be essential to get him to the following stage.
Over/below: 49.2 (fifth highest)
Win chance: Jaguars 57% (twelfth highest)
Projected rating: Giants 24, Cardinals 22
Lineup locks: Cam Skattebo, Jeremiyah Love, Malik Nabers, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, Isaiah Likely
Fantasy scoop: Love was a bit sluggish out of the gate to start his profession, however the third total choose in April’s draft is again within the “lineup lock” combine after an enormous increase in utilization and manufacturing in Week 3. After taking part in on 43% of snaps and totaling 95 yards and one landing on 25 touches throughout Weeks 1-2, Love jumped to 63% of snaps and totaled 109 yards (plus one TD) on 26 touches this previous Sunday.
It seems that Arizona is able to lean on Love as its function again, and he is in a great spot this week in opposition to a Giants protection that’s permitting 5.1 yards per RB carry this season (third highest).
Over/below: 46.7 (eighth highest)
Win chance: Giants 56% (thirteenth highest)
Projected rating: Rams 25, Eagles 22
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, DeVonta Smith, Davante Adams
Fantasy scoop: Jalen Hurts is trending within the improper route, having adopted up a 25-point fantasy effort in Week 1 with a pair of finishes of QB15 or worse in opposition to Tennessee and Chicago over the previous two weeks. Hurts did throw 5 TD passes throughout Weeks 1-2, however he is thrown three INTs over his final two video games — and his lone rating in opposition to Chicago final week was a desperation “tush push” to finish the primary half.
Perhaps most regarding here’s a lack of a rebound for Hurts within the speeding division. After main all QBs in carries and speeding scores throughout every of the 2021-24 seasons, Hurts took an enormous step again in 2025. Hurts’ dip in speeding led to an eighth-place end in fantasy PPG final season and he is exhibiting indicators that he could repeat as not more than a back-end QB1 this 12 months. (He at present sits at solely 16-87-1 by means of three weeks in 2026.)
Especially in opposition to a strong Rams protection, Hurts is a fringe beginning choice this week.
Over/below: 46.5 (ninth highest)
Win chance: Rams 59% (ninth highest)
Projected rating: Buccaneers 21, Packers 20
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden
Fantasy scoop: With Baker Mayfield sidelined for roughly three weeks, the Buccaneers will flip to Jalon Daniels. The undrafted rookie dealt with 45 begins throughout six seasons at Kansas and, whereas he performs an aggressive sport (a class-high 9.3 aDOT final season) and provides worth along with his legs (a profession 345-1977-23 speeding line), he has a protracted technique to go as a passer (solely a 62% completion fee and a class-high 15.3% off-target fee throughout his profession).
Daniels’ dual-threat skill makes him a fantasy deep sleeper, however Tampa Bay’s passing quantity and effectivity are prone to take a large hit. Top receiver Emeka Egbuka is on the flex radar in opposition to the Packers, however there is a ton of danger right here and no different cross catcher needs to be in lineups.
Over/below: 41.3 (14th highest)
Win chance: Buccaneers 55% (14th highest)
Projected rating: Ravens 30, Titans 16
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Mark Andrews makes for a really difficult analysis. On the one hand, his utilization has been wonderful, as he is had a goal share within the 24-25% vary in all three video games. In reality, his 24.7% goal share for the season is his highest since he was fantasy’s No. 4 scoring tight finish in 2022. On the opposite hand, the heavy utilization hasn’t transformed to a lot fantasy manufacturing, as he is turned his 18 targets into solely a 13-122-0 receiving line. Andrews has now gone 10 consecutive video games beneath 11.0 fantasy factors.
Game scripts might be higher at occasions (Baltimore has been forward on 65% of its offensive snaps and Jackson is thus simply twenty sixth in cross makes an attempt), however that is nonetheless a workforce that might be forward loads and will run the ball typically. (They’re the game-script-adjusted second run-heaviest offense by means of three weeks).
Andrews is finest valued as a fringe TE1 and is not overly interesting this week in opposition to a Titans protection that has allowed a complete of solely 48 yards on 18 TE targets this season.
Over/below: 45.5 (tenth highest)
Win chance: Ravens 91% (2nd highest)
Projected rating: Texans 25, Cowboys 25
Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, George Pickens
Fantasy scoop: After producing 79 yards and three touchdowns on 23 touches in Week 1, David Montgomery has totaled a mere 70 yards (and zero TDs) on 21 touches throughout Houston’s final two video games. Montgomery (37 carries and seven targets on 111 snaps) has struggled badly with effectivity (2.8 YPC), performs a restricted function as a receiver (seven targets) and continues to separate the Houston backfield with Woody Marks (22 carries and eight targets on 90 snaps).
Montgomery did hit a season-high snap share in Week 3 (65%), however Marks remained loads concerned and dealt with the workforce’s lone purpose line carry. Montgomery is, at finest, a fringe RB2 in opposition to Dallas.
Over/below: 50.0 (2nd highest)
Win chance: Texans 51% (Lowest)
Projected Score: Vikings 26, Dolphins 12
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson
Fantasy scoop: De’Von Achane (ACL) is finished for the 2026 season, which opens the door for Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright to battle it out for work within the Miami backfield. Wright was sidelined in Week 3, which allowed Gordon to play on 82% of offensive snaps. He wasn’t significantly efficient (17-41-1 speeding, 3-3-14-0 receiving) and is now averaging an unsightly 2.7 yards per carry and 3.8 yards per goal on 100 profession touches.
Wright, who dealt with 70-plus touches in each of the previous two seasons, had a protracted look as a lead again in Week 14 final season and delivered 24-107-1 on the bottom, however was held and not using a catch on three targets.
The more healthy of the 2 backs, Gordon is the popular choice of those two for the second, however neither is a very interesting flex in Miami’s low-scoring offense and in opposition to a Minnesota protection that’s permitting 3.1 yards per carry and the third-fewest RB fantasy factors.
Over/below: 38.3 (fifteenth highest)
Win chance: Vikings 93% (Highest)
Projected rating: Chiefs 27, Raiders 22
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, Ashton Jeanty, Rashee Rice, Brock Bowers, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: Rice’s utilization and manufacturing have elevated every week of the season and he is discovered himself proper again within the “lineup lock” combine. After underwhelming with a 2-19-1 receiving line on two targets in Week 1, Rice improved to 4-83-0 on six targets in Week 2 earlier than leaping to 7-88-0 on 9 targets final week. Rice dealt with a hefty 39% goal share in opposition to Miami on Sunday and is having fun with career-high utilization when it comes to each snaps (79%) and route participation (75%) this season.
The fourth-year receiver is a robust fantasy WR2 in opposition to a Las Vegas protection that has but to permit any WR touchdowns, although that is a bit fluky contemplating it has surrendered a complete of 5 passing TDs (eleventh most).
Over/below: 48.5 (sixth highest)
Win chance: Chiefs 68% (sixth highest)
Projected rating: 49ers 26, Broncos 19
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: Courtland Sutton‘s sluggish begin has eradicated him from “lineup lock” consideration. The veteran wideout has been held to an 8-82-0 receiving line on 16 targets and has but to achieve 8.0 fantasy factors in any sport this season. His 18% goal share is his lowest since his rookie season in 2018. On the plus aspect, his utilization was up in Week 3 (23% goal share) and he stays busy close to the purpose line (three finish zone targets, third most amongst WRs). Consider him as not more than a flex.
Over/below: 44.1 (twelfth highest)
Win chance: 49ers 74% (4th highest)
Projected rating: Seahawks 28, Chargers 16
Lineup lock: (*4*)
Fantasy scoop: Omarion Hampton has a pair of touchdowns and sits tenth amongst RBs in carries this season, however his utilization — mixed with a tricky Week 4 matchup — makes him a dangerous fantasy play. The second-year again has been a nonfactor (nearly actually) within the passing sport, having totaled simply 21 yards on three targets (with each of his catches coming in Week 2). As a end result, he is been held beneath 8.5 fantasy factors in two out of three video games regardless of the great speeding manufacturing.
Hampton, who performed on a season-low 42% of snaps in Week 3, will now face a Seattle protection that has allowed 2.9 yards per carry (second lowest) and the fifth-fewest fantasy factors to RBs this season. Hampton is finest seen as a fringe RB2.
Over/below: 43.5 (thirteenth highest)
Win chance: Seahawks 87% (third highest)
Projected rating: Lions 29, Panthers 27
Lineup locks: Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs, Chuba Hubbard, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: Young fell again to earth final week, however that should not cease you from streaming him right here in Week 4. Despite the quiet fantasy day (13.6 factors), the 2023 first total choose nonetheless managed 291 passing yards and now leads the NFL in that class by means of three video games.
Young threw three TD passes in each Weeks 1 and 2 and additionally paces the league in anticipated passing TDs. We might use extra speeding manufacturing (3-16-1 this season), however we could not want it this week in opposition to a Detroit protection that has allowed essentially the most passing yards and QB fantasy factors, in addition to the second-most passing TDs (9). Josh Allen, Geno Smith and Tyler Shough every scored 23-plus factors in opposition to Detroit this season.
Over/below: 56.0 (Highest)
Win chance: Lions 54% (fifteenth highest)
Projected rating: Saints 26, Falcons 22
Lineup locks: Tyler Shough, Bijan Robinson, Chris Olave, Drake London
Fantasy scoop: Travis Etienne Jr. is predicted to overlook time, which leaves New Orleans with a three-headed committee that includes Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson. Kamara figures to guide the group, however contemplating his lack of manufacturing final season (1 TD, 9.7 fantasy PPG) and restricted utilization this season (63 yards on 24 snaps over two video games), the 31-year-old is a protracted shot to play a “feature back” function.
Instead, Miller (49 yards and one TD on 15 touches in his two video games) and Donaldson (9 yards on 5 touches over three video games) might be loads concerned, with Miller being a candidate to guide the group in carries. Kamara is a low-ceiling flex choice in opposition to an Atlanta protection that has allowed 3.1 yards per carry and the fourth-fewest fantasy factors to RBs.
Over/below: 47.7 (seventh highest)
Win chance: Saints 62% (seventh highest)