Connelly – Alabama, Ohio State among ranked teams on upset alert
September is each thrilling and deceptive. The proverbial September Heisman winner virtually by no means wins the precise Heisman, and previously 21 seasons the staff ranked No. 1 in Week 5 went on to win the nationwide title solely thrice.
There are loads of shake-ups to come back, in different phrases, they usually may begin this weekend. Week 5 is not as loaded with apparent headliners as Week 4 was, however eight of the highest 12 teams within the AP ballot are enjoying on the highway, and three are favorites of lower than a landing. Per SP+ projections, there’s twice nearly as good an opportunity of three favorites shedding (23.9%) as there’s of all eight profitable (11.9%).
The aesthetics are fairly pleasing all through the weekend: We get a matchup of the sport’s two most fun younger quarterbacks, and Ohio State-Iowa provides us an opportunity to reminisce about an enormous 2017 upset. We additionally get an amazing Friday evening slate, determined residence video games for USC and Texas A&M, and possibly the most important UMass residence sport ever.
We’re going to take down some favorites, and we’ll have some enjoyable. Here’s all the pieces it’s essential comply with in Week 5.
Note: All occasions are Eastern.
Keelon vs. Kamario! Yes!
No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (midday, ABC)
Mississippi State and Alabama have met as ranked foes 14 occasions, and the Crimson Tide are 14-0. MSU’s Kamario Taylor has created magic this season — and won the September Heisman — however is he prepared to finish an all-time shedding streak? And can he outduel possibly the second-most thrilling younger QB within the nation in Keelon Russell?
Based on preseason SP+ projections, Mississippi State was taking a look at a mean of two.0 wins via 4 video games; as an alternative, the Bulldogs are 4-0. Only the fantastic UMass Minutemen overachieved extra in September.
Alabama additionally dealt with September with aplomb — the Tide are virtually a full win forward of schedule.
Bama’s offense regarded just like the completed article final Saturday, gaining 489 yards at 8.6 yards per play in a 49-18 win over South Carolina. Russell was 13-for-15 for 234 yards and 4 touchdowns within the first half alone, and 5 gamers caught at the very least one go of 20-plus yards. The Crimson Tide’s run sport has improved, and the passing sport is unbelievable. Meanwhile, Mississippi State ranks simply 67th in yards allowed per dropback and gave up greater than 400 complete yards to each South Carolina and Missouri.
Taylor and the Bulldogs have been extremely prolific, they usually’ve executed it regardless of lulls, recognizing South Carolina a 16-0 lead over the primary 20 minutes and getting outscored 24-3 within the center two quarters in opposition to Missouri. Despite dialing in for under 30-45 minutes per week, MSU is averaging 43 factors and 533 yards per sport.
On paper, Alabama’s protection is the most effective the Bulldogs have confronted, however the Tide have sprung a number of extra leaks than anticipated. The run protection is great — although it will have its arms full with yards-after-contact maestro Fluff Bothwell — however the go protection is suspect. The Tide D ranks simply 81st in yards per dropback, and 22.7% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (a hundred and twenty fifth). Rain may make this sport extra run-primarily based, however Taylor remains to be extremely harmful.
This is a tough run of video games for each teams. MSU is within the second of a 5-week run of SP+ prime-30 opponents; three of the following 4 are prime-10. For Bama, 4 of the following 5 opponents rank 18th or higher. Both have overachieved to date, however the challenges have solely begun.
Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 5.4 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.0
Iowa goes for the double
No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
In 1962, Jerry Burns’ Iowa staff went simply 4-5, however the final two of these wins got here in Iowa City by matching 28-14 scores — first in opposition to Ohio State, then in opposition to Michigan. It’s the one time the Hawkeyes beat each Big Ten heavyweights in the identical season, however now they’ve an opportunity to do it in a two-week span.
This is someway the Buckeyes’ first go to to Kinnick Stadium since their unimaginable 55-24 loss in 2017. In the final 40 years, solely the Buckeyes’ well-known 1998 loss to Nick Saban and Michigan State got here as a heavier favourite.
Iowa was extraordinarily lucky to beat Michigan final week. Generally, getting outgained by 1.5 yards per play and giving up twice as many crimson zone journeys as you create is a fairly ineffective technique for profitable a sport, however crimson zone magic on each ends, and an inconceivable final drive, received the job executed. The recipe for one more Hawkeyes win may take form in comparable style: Hold Ohio State to area targets, keep inside attain so long as potential and hope the Buckeyes’ recollections of current shut losses come into play late.
Jeremiah Smith & Co. will most likely simply be too rattling good for Iowa. The Hawkeyes’ protection will make some stops as a result of it is wonderful, however their offense ranks 73rd in factors per drive because of basic inefficiency and a scarcity of huge go performs. Ohio State’s protection is not as impenetrable as final 12 months’s, however the Buckeyes are fifteenth in factors allowed per possession regardless of having performed two prime-25 offenses (Texas and Illinois). The run protection is merely stable, and Iowa operating again Kamari Moulton may get pleasure from an honest sport, however main passing success for Iowa’s Hank Brown is probably going out of attain.
Strangely, it is a greater sport for the Buckeyes than for the Hawkeyes. Ohio State has already spent a mulligan with the loss to Texas, and the Buckeyes nonetheless face journeys to Indiana and USC and a house sport in opposition to Oregon. They cannot actually afford to drop this one, however Iowa, someway with just one SP+ prime-25 opponent left after this, is in nice place for a run at 10-2.
Current line: OSU -14.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 11.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 13.5
Which different prime-15 highway teams is perhaps in bother?
Six different prime teams additionally face highway journeys of various levels of trickiness. Who is in probably the most hazard of happening?
No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Almost no offense is ideal, and a bunch of properly-paid defensive coordinators will discover methods to frustrate just about everybody in some unspecified time in the future. But nobody has managed to frustrate Florida simply but.
The Gators are first in factors per possession, grinding away with Jadan Baugh and an amazing run sport, drawing up extensive-open passes for Aaron Philo and enjoying virtually completely within the crimson zone. But Missouri held down Kamario Taylor and MSU for a few quarters and forces three-and-outs and turnover alternatives properly. Can the Tigers change into the primary staff to ding an imperious assault?
Mizzou has been good within the area place and turnover departments, however when the Tigers wanted yet one more rating late in opposition to MSU, Austin Simmons & Co. could not get it executed. They nonetheless haven’t got an amazing run sport, and whereas Simmons has been fairly good on passing downs, he has confronted a number of too many. Florida has allowed at the very least 21 factors in opposition to all three FBS opponents it has confronted and ranks simply 78th in success charge* allowed. The Gators pounce on impatient errors, however what occurs if they should power the problem?
(Success charge: How ceaselessly an offense is gaining 50% of essential yardage on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
Current line: Florida -5.5 | SP+ projection: Florida by 2.3 | FPI projection: Florida by 7.3
No. 10 BYU at TCU (7 p.m., ESPN)
Over Sonny Dykes’ first 4 years at TCU, the Horned Frogs received three video games whereas permitting at the very least 36 factors. The Horned Frogs can usually dangle in a monitor meet, however of their first two 2026 video games in opposition to energy-convention opponents, they allowed 36 complete factors … and went 0-2. They allowed 17 tackles for loss, dedicated 5 turnovers and managed two touchdowns in eight crimson zone journeys. Offensive errors ruined two sturdy defensive performances.
BYU’s offense ranks first nationally in success charge. Running again LJ Martin runs imply as hell, and freshman receiver Legend Glasker is a major deep menace. More importantly, the Cougars’ protection is creating two takeaways per sport and stopping large performs and simple scores. TCU nonetheless has potential, however the Frogs have a lot to scrub up.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 5.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 7.4
No. 12 Texas Tech at Colorado (7:30 p.m., Fox)
Colorado has pulled off solely half a turnaround. The Buffaloes’ protection has change into much more aggressive and disruptive and may problem a Tech offense that boasts sturdy effectivity numbers (fifteenth in success charge) however would not make a great deal of large performs, turns the ball over an excessive amount of and is coping with O-line accidents.
Only one half of the matchup is intriguing, nonetheless — there’s little motive to suppose the Buffaloes will truly rating. Tech’s protection is not as sturdy as final 12 months’s, however Colorado ranks a hundred and fifteenth in factors per drive, getting solely random bursts from the run sport and nothing however nibbles via the air. It seems Utah switch Isaac Wilson will begin over blue-chip teen Julian Lewis, however he did not do a lot in opposition to Baylor final week. It will take critical Boulder magic for this to change into attention-grabbing.
Current line: Tech -12.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Tech by 21.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 16.1
No. 4 Miami at Clemson (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Since Clemson’s Week 1 humiliation in opposition to LSU, the Tigers’ protection has allowed simply 0.8 factors per drive (seventh nationally) and 4.2 yards per dropback (sixth). That has allowed the staff to win three straight regardless of a moribund offense.
Miami is obliterating opposing run video games, and Clemson QB Tait Reynolds will seemingly see far too many passing downs. But this might nonetheless be a stable take a look at for a Hurricanes offense that hasn’t confronted a prime-60 protection (per SP+). Miami ranks first in yards per play (8.5), second in factors per drive (4.3) and third in success charge (58.0%), and Darian Mensah has accomplished a preposterous 89% of his passes. But Clemson ought to defend soundly sufficient — particularly with wet situations — to present the Canes a dose of adversity.
Current line: Miami -16.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 18.3 | FPI projection: Miami by 16.5
No. 3 Notre Dame at North Carolina (midday, ESPN)
UNC has had a disjointed begin to the season with a Week 0 sport and two bye weeks shut collectively. Now come 9 straight video games beginning with a go to from Notre Dame. The Tar Heels have the most effective go rush CJ Carr has confronted, and if the Fighting Irish aren’t operating the ball significantly properly and Carr is dealing with third-and-longs, that may change into a problem.
That’s most likely the one path UNC has to an upset, although. Notre Dame has a lot of paths to victory. The Heels are ninetieth in factors per drive and have not confronted a protection this good, and the Irish O-line has barely let Carr get touched. The Notre Dame offense has probably found a brand new gear with Micah Gilbert reeling in deep balls, and the run sport is environment friendly sufficient even when it lacks explosiveness.
Current line: ND -21 (down from -22.5) | SP+ projection: ND by 22.5 | FPI projection: ND by 20.0
No. 6 Indiana at Rutgers (8 p.m., BTN)
Indiana is working with the most important unfold right here, however I like this take a look at as a result of the Hoosiers have suffered extra defensive glitches than anticipated, particularly within the secondary, and Rutgers’ offense has truly come to life. Quarterback Dylan Lonergan is trying far stronger since returning to the lineup, and if IU’s consideration span continues to wobble at occasions, the Scarlet Knights may hold this shut for a bit.
IU ought to ultimately rating far an excessive amount of, however Rutgers will inform us if the Hoosiers’ defensive glitches are a real concern.
Current line: Indiana -23.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 26.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 28.5
A sneaky-large Friday evening
Northwestern opens its new/previous stadium, and Virginia Tech performs “Enter Sandman” for a battle of unbeatens. Combine that with Liberty-Delaware and “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives,” and that is a pleasant Friday evening quad field!
Pitt at Virginia Tech (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
Virginia Tech and Pitt hadn’t each began 4-0 since 2000, when Michael Vick was behind heart for the Hokies and the Panthers’ Antonio Bryant was posting otherworldly receiving numbers. Pitt has grown fairly used to quick begins — 7-0 in 2024, 7-2 in 2025 — however James Franklin has Tech enjoying at its highest stage shortly. The Hokies weren’t wonderful in highway wins over Maryland and Boston College (the latter in a wet nor’easter), however operating again Jeffrey Overton Jr. is posting sturdy numbers regardless of a banged-up O-line, Ethan Grunkemeyer is finishing 74% of his passes, and the protection leads the nation in stuff charge (run stops at or behind the road) and sack charge. They assault and assault.
That’s normally Pitt’s factor. The Panthers are second in stuff charge, and although the go rush is not elite, they’re nonetheless nineteenth in third-down conversion charge and third in factors allowed per drive. Grunkemeyer and Pitt’s Mason Heintschel will seemingly be in fairly a number of third-and-longs. Whoever makes extra performs — or higher avoids catastrophe — will transfer to five-0.
Current line: VT -3 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: VT by 0.1 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.7
Penn State at Northwestern (8 p.m., Fox)
RIP to Northwestern’s momentary soccer residence by the lake — Ryan Field reopens after an $800 million renovation, and the Wildcats will welcome a Penn State staff that’s abruptly reeling after final week’s late breakdowns in opposition to Wisconsin.
Northwestern has overachieved in opposition to projections in every of its first three video games and is one spot forward of Wisconsin in SP+. That is perhaps scary for Penn State, contemplating that the Badgers outgained the Nittany Lions by 1.9 yards per play and had been trailing late solely due to turnovers. But the PSU protection nonetheless appears fairly prime-notch — eighth in factors per drive, third in yards allowed per dropback — and the Nittany Lions are nonetheless favored. We’ll must see much more from Rocco Becht and the offense, although: They averaged a dismal 3.6 yards per play final week.
Current line: PSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 7.1 | FPI projection: PSU by 2.0
Group of 6 video games of the week
Per SP+, there are six main contenders for the Group of 6’s computerized CFP slot: unbeaten James Madison, North Dakota State and USF and one-loss New Mexico, Boise State and Memphis. The subsequent staff within the pecking order after that group? UNBEATEN UMASS!! The Minutemen are enjoying of their largest residence sport since becoming a member of the FBS, and USF hosts a aggressive and annoyed Temple.
Eastern Michigan at UMass (3:30 p.m., ESPN+)
Joe Harasymiak’s UMass Minutemen are 4-0 for the primary time since 2007, and McGuirk Stadium will seemingly be bought out Saturday afternoon. Hell sure. Quarterback Pop Watson III is the Minutemen’s finest true playmaker in ages, and the protection has been stable in opposition to the go and nice in opposition to the run.
EMU has a veteran quarterback in Noah Kim and an offensive line that does not commit many penalties or enable many unfavourable performs. But the Eagles have overwhelmed solely Lindenwood and Sacramento State — by 18 fewer factors at residence than UMass did on the highway — and it might be a shock if UMass did not make it to five-0.
Current line: UMass -6.5 (up from -4) | SP+ projection: UMass by 14.3 | FPI projection: UMass by 13.4
Temple at USF (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
USF is tough to determine. The offense stays on schedule and manages turnovers properly however has scored fewer than 20 factors twice, together with in opposition to a horrible Bowling Green protection. The Bulls’ protection, in the meantime, barely stands out statistically however has allowed 17 or fewer factors thrice. The Bulls are projected favorites in each remaining sport, however with such a low-scoring offense, they’re susceptible.
Temple has misplaced its previous two video games by a complete of 4 factors, and because of backs Keveun Mason and Samuel Brown and quarterback Ajani Sheppard, the Owls have one of many G6’s extra explosive run video games. Their protection has dissatisfied, but when they’ll hold USF at 24 or fewer factors, an upset is on the desk.
Current line: USF -6.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 12.5 | FPI projection: USF by 6.7
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We’re as soon as once more utilizing this house to will chaos into existence, taking a look at 4 rigorously curated video games with fairly large level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-pleasant quantity. We’re rolling this 12 months — we have taken down at the very least one favourite in three of 4 weeks, and final week we took down two for the second time. Let’s hold it going!
According to SP+, there’s solely a 33% likelihood that Houston (-10.5 vs. UCF), Wisconsin (-10 vs. Michigan State), Illinois (-10 vs. Purdue) and North Dakota State (-20.5 vs. Wyoming) all win this weekend. I like our possibilities!
Week 5 playlist
Here are some extra video games you need to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from info and leisure views.
Friday night
Liberty at Delaware (7 p.m., CBSSN). Liberty is the Conference USA favourite after a few nice performances, however Delaware is 7-1 at residence since becoming a member of the FBS, and quarterback Nick Minicucci is a giant-play hunter who may take a look at a wonderful Liberty go protection. But can an honest Blue Hens run protection sluggish the relentless dashing duo of Kam Davis and Peyton Jones?
Current line: Liberty -7.5 | SP+ projection: Liberty by 10.8 | FPI projection: Liberty by 5.4
Early Saturday
Michigan at Minnesota (midday, Fox). Michigan’s September started and ended with wild video games that had been determined with no time on the clock. Michigan’s offense moved the ball properly within the loss to Iowa — its 6.3 yards per play was probably the most the Hawkeyes have allowed previously 10 video games — however suffered crimson zone points and dangerous breaks. An wonderful Wolverines protection ought to hold Minnesota at 21 or fewer factors, however the Golden Gophers may stick round in the event that they maintain Michigan to area targets.
Current line: Michigan -5.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 5.3 | FPI projection: Michigan by 9.6
Michigan State at Wisconsin (12:30 p.m., BTN). After its first prime-15 highway win since 2019, Wisconsin returns residence to welcome a Michigan State staff that misplaced its first two energy-convention video games by 35 mixed factors. RB Cam Edwards is out for the season, and hopes for an upset will hinge on MSU’s protection forcing turnovers (the Badgers are fairly beneficiant) and receiver Rodney Bullard Jr. reeling in some large features.
Current line: UW -10 | SP+ projection: UW by 9.1 | FPI projection: UW by 6.1
UCF at No. 20 Houston (midday, ESPN2). UCF is 5 factors from an unbeaten file and has allowed greater than 13 factors solely as soon as this season. But Conner Weigman and the Houston offense rank third in factors per drive and may grind teams down with both the run or go. UCF has gotten by with minimal passing, thanks partly to nice work from RB Duke Watson, however QB Keyone Jenkins will most likely should make some large throws to attain an upset.
Current line: Houston -11.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 5.9 | FPI projection: Houston by 8.1
Vanderbilt at No. 2 Georgia (12:45 p.m., SECN). Vanderbilt has underachieved in opposition to SP+ projections in each sport and is a large projected underdog right here. The Commodores do not appear to have the offense, and freshman quarterback Jared Curtis is listed as questionable. Still, they’ve an excellent go rush and environment friendly go protection, so that they’ll give us an extra concept of Gunner Stockton and the Georgia passing sport’s newfound upside.
Current line: UGA -25.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 25.2 | FPI projection: UGA by 26.2
Navy at Air Force (midday, CBS). The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy collection begins! Devastating losses to FAU and UAB have wounded Navy’s American Conference title hopes, and now the Midshipmen head to Colorado Springs, the place they’ve misplaced 5 of six. Navy’s Jackson Gutierrez has run a stable possibility assault within the injured Braxton Woodson‘s absence, simply as Liam Szarka has for Air Force, however the sport shall be determined by which struggling protection shines.
Current line: Air Force -3.5 (up from -1.5) | SP+ projection: Air Force -2.8 | FPI projection: Air Force by 5.3
Saturday afternoon
Virginia at Florida State (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). It’s make-or-break time for Mike Norvell at FSU: Five of the Seminoles’ final eight video games this season are projected inside one rating, they usually may must win all of them for Norvell to maintain his job. Virginia has been wonderful in three video games however could not cease West Virginia’s run sport in a stunning loss. That could possibly be excellent news for FSU’s Ousmane Kromah, however the Seminoles’ struggling protection will nonetheless must decelerate a comparatively mistake-free UVA offense.
Current line: UVA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 6.2 | FPI projection: UVA by 2.9
Auburn at No. 17 Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Auburn has confronted one prime-40 offense (per SP+), and it gave up 44 factors. Six of the following eight offenses the Tigers face rank twenty second or higher. Against Texas final week, all of Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon‘s dangerous habits — particularly, his one-learn-and-go scrambling — had been laid naked, and now, Vols guard Wendell Moe Jr. is out for the season. Can Auburn take benefit? And can Auburn rating on an more and more spectacular Vols protection?
Current line: UT -7 | SP+ projection: UT by 8.8 | FPI projection: UT by 7.6
Louisville at NC State (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Louisville has allowed 30-plus factors to all three of its energy-convention opponents. The Cardinals create virtually no disruption and misplaced to Wake Forest final week when the offense started settling for area targets. Now, quarterback Lincoln Kienholz is listed as questionable. Uh-oh. NC State’s offense has rounded into type, however the Wolfpack protection is perhaps even much less disruptive than Louisville’s.
Current line: Louisville -3.5 (down from -6) | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 6.1
No. 24 Kentucky at South Carolina (4:15 p.m., SECN). In the previous three halves, South Carolina has been outscored 76-29. Dylan Stewart is suspended, and the protection is getting rocked. If this sport comes right down to confidence, Kentucky has all of it. The Wildcats are ranked for the primary time in three years, and backs CJ Baxter and Jason Patterson are operating properly. The protection remains to be susceptible, although, if the Gamecocks are up for a monitor meet (and wet situations enable for one).
Current line: Gamecocks -3 | SP+ projection: Gamecocks by 2.0 | FPI projection: Gamecocks by 2.7
Maryland at Nebraska (4 p.m., FS1). Lou Holtz used to say you coach a special staff each week, however Mike Locksley has to hope his staff is very totally different from final week’s: Maryland was a 1.5-level residence underdog in opposition to UCLA and misplaced by 51. The 2-2 Terrapins are projected favorites in simply two remaining video games. It may get dangerous if they do not instantly rebound, and Nebraska has rolled to 4 straight snug wins.
Current line: Huskers -14.5 | SP+ projection: Huskers by 15.6 | FPI projection: Huskers by 21.7
Wyoming at North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., The CW). The Craig Bohl Bowl! NDSU moved to FBS partly as a result of bored Bison followers needed greater residence video games, and FBS lifer Wyoming is perhaps the most important program to go to the Fargodome. The Cowboys performed their finest sport of the season final week, however they actually wrestle to go and to cease the run. Can physicality and FBS aura assist them pull an upset?
Current line: NDSU -17.5 (down from -20.5) | SP+ projection: NDSU by 23.0 | FPI projection: NDSU by 20.4
Saturday night
Washington at No. 18 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC). These two have mixed to underachieve in opposition to SP+ projections in eight of 9 video games. Jayden Maiava and the USC passing sport are nonetheless superior, and Washington ranks fifty fifth in yards allowed per dropback regardless of not having performed a prime-60 offense (per SP+). Can Washington’s banged-up offense rating sufficient in opposition to USC’s flawed-as-ever protection?
Current line: USC -9.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 8.2 | FPI projection: USC by 14.0
Arkansas at Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN2). Arkansas is coming off its finest efficiency of 2026, a blowout of Tulsa. I wrote in final week’s preview that WR Chris Marshall wanted to come back up large, and he went for 195 yards and a TD. He may do it once more in opposition to an A&M protection that’s continuously giving up chunk performs, however Arkansas’ protection is perhaps shaky sufficient for A&M’s struggling Marcel Reed to discover a rhythm. The Aggies have much more benefits right here.
Current line: A&M -14 | SP+ projection: A&M by 11.7 | FPI projection: A&M by 16.0
Utah State at No. 22 Boise State (7:30 p.m., CBSSN). Wins over Memphis and Western Michigan have given BSU a stable declare to Best within the G6 standing, however the Broncos haven’t got a lot margin for error with James Madison and NDSU, among others, unbeaten. Utah State’s protection is bettering shortly, particularly in large-play prevention, however the Aggies must make a lot of stops to purchase time for an ineffective offense.
Current line: BSU -20.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 19.5 | FPI projection: BSU by 21.2
Late Saturday
Cincinnati at Arizona (11 p.m., Fox). The portal provides and takes. Cincinnati misplaced QB Brendan Sorsby, however transfers have remodeled the backfield: Quarterback JC French IV and backs Gi’Bran Payne and Cole Tabb have crafted an amazing run sport and environment friendly passing sport. Arizona has the most effective run protection the Bearcats have seen, although, and the Wildcats are making loads of large performs with Noah Fifita throwing to Tre Spivey. Cincy is rising, however Arizona has a greater monitor file.
Current line: Arizona -6.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.1
Baylor at Arizona State (10:30 p.m., ESPN). After every week off following a win over Kansas in London, a refreshed ASU hosts a Baylor staff that has lastly discovered its protection however has misplaced its passing sport. Coordinator Joe Klanderman’s Bears are tenth in factors allowed per drive and will frustrate an explosive however inconsistent ASU offense, however quarterback DJ Lagway was iffy in his return from damage and the Sun Devils’ go protection is stellar.
Current line: ASU -4 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 2.7 | FPI projection: Baylor by 0.8
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s as soon as once more save a shout-out for the fantastic decrease ranges of the game. Here are 4 video games you need to monitor.
FCS: No. 1 Montana State at Idaho (Friday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN). Friday evening on the Kibbie Dome! One of the Big Sky’s ESPN showcase video games arrives at an odd time — Idaho is 0-4 with three one-rating losses, and Montana State has regarded spotty for 2 straight video games after a giant FBS win over Nevada. MSU’s offense is struggling too many turnovers, however although Idaho can transfer the ball, a poor protection will most likely make it tough for the Vandals to maintain up.
SP+ projection: MSU by 23.5
D-III: Mount Union at Muskingum (Saturday, 1:30 p.m., FloCollege). There’s no rating subsequent to Division III royalty Mount Union’s identify, and it is not a typo. The Purple Raiders are breaking all of the incorrect sorts of streaks: They had received 85 straight common -season video games heading into 2026, however they’ve began the 12 months 1-2. They hadn’t misplaced to convention mate Heidelberg since 1988 however fell 37-34 to the Student Princes (!) in Week 3.
The Purple Raiders will seemingly dominate Muskingum (199th in D-III SP+), however they could possibly be susceptible in two or three extra convention video games, and their first playoff absence since 1991 is an actual chance.
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 45.8
D-III: No. 2 Wisconsin-River Falls at No. 7 Wisconsin-Whitewater (Saturday, 2 p.m., local streaming). Conference play lastly begins within the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — the most effective rattling convention in school soccer — and we’re beginning with a WIAC doozy. (We even have two prime-10 matchups in Division III, with No. 8 Bethel visiting No. 5 Saint John’s.)
Defending nationwide champion UWRF has already thumped a pair of ranked teams, however previous heavyweight Whitewater has surged to first in D-III SP+ after profitable three video games by a mixed 187-21. Per SP+, the WIAC has 4 of the highest-13 teams in D-III, and it is 1-versus-2 at Perkins Stadium. Hell sure.
SP+ projection: UWW by 4.4
FCS: No. 2 South Dakota State at No. 11 Illinois State (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN+). Illinois State moved to No. 1 in FCS SP+ for the primary time however suffered an instantaneous upset loss to Northern Iowa. Now, the Redbirds should face a Missouri Valley heavyweight. These teams boast critical offenses; ISU strikes with service academy effectivity, however SDSU has gained 20-plus yards on 10.7% of its snaps (second in FCS) and ISU gave up a great deal of chunk performs in opposition to UNI. The Redbirds higher work out the best way to rein in receivers Grahm Goering and Jack Smith.
SP+ projection: SDSU by 0.9