Re-grading the Jaylen Brown-Paul George trade: Celtics’ grade has greatly improved, 76ers’ mark stays perfect
Besides the Luka Dončić stunner, you could possibly argue that this summer time’s Jaylen Brown blockbuster was the most shocking commerce in current NBA historical past. A former Finals MVP coming off of his finest season traded for … Paul George? Someone broadly handled as one in all the NBA’s worst contracts and half of the draft capital a famous person sometimes fetches? The reactions had been, clearly, excessive. Celtics followers revolted. Pundits anticipated a significant drop-off for Boston. Trade graders like myself pilloried Brad Stevens and his entrance workplace for transferring a 29-year-old All-NBA ahead for what seemed to be far lower than honest worth.
And but, as Brown prepares to face his former employer for the first time, the two groups sit neck-and-neck in the Eastern Conference. The 76ers high the standings at 9-2. The Celtics are proper behind them at 8-2, however have the East’s finest web ranking at +11.6. While Philadelphia has so far gotten precisely what it needed out of the commerce, the Celtics seemingly have as nicely. So with their first of doubtless many high-stakes clashes this season set for Tuesday evening (8 p.m. ET, NBC/fubo), let’s revisit the commerce and hand out revised grades for the offseason’s most impactful commerce.
Boston Celtics: B-
July grade: D-
The backlash to the George-for-Brown commerce was essentially centered on two premises:
- A crew buying and selling a First or Second Team All-NBA participant in his prime ought to anticipate 4 or 5 first-round picks value of worth in return.
- George, who performed simply 78 whole regular-season video games as a 76er with career-worst numbers and was getting into his age-36 season, was prone to decline and was critically overpaid on a supermax contract. At finest, he represented impartial worth, however probably represented damaging worth.
The first premise was, frankly, outdated in the apron period. Yes, Kevin Durant netted 4 first-round picks, a first-round swap, and gamers who would go on to web six extra first-round picks and one other swap, however that was all the method again in February 2023, and that commerce fully derailed Phoenix’s future. The James Harden commerce performed out equally for the Nets. Teams are extra skittish about all-in strikes for older gamers than they’ve ever been.
There have been outlier, extraordinarily high-cost trades since then, however all got here underneath considerably irreplicable circumstances. Mikal Bridges netted 5 first-round picks and a swap, as an illustration, however he by no means misses video games, got here with two years of low cost cost-control and performed collegiately with a number of different key Knicks. New York considered him as the ending piece of a championship crew, and the Knicks had been in the end confirmed right.
Desmond Bane wasn’t as underpaid, however he match the extraordinarily slender area of interest the Magic wanted: somebody who might improve their offense with out commanding excessive utilization on a crew that was already locked into two max-salary shot-creators or compromising their defensive id. There had been perhaps a handful of gamers in the NBA Orlando might have focused for that function, and Bane, amazingly, was most likely the just one obtainable. In an especially injured Eastern Conference, the Magic tried to be opportunistic. That’s the place these lopsided trades occur. They’re nearly all the time circumstantial.
The extra typical star commerce situation is one thing nearer to what the Milwaukee Bucks went by means of with Giannis Antetokounmpo. The participant is older, makes an attempt to make things better internally have failed, and the relationship between star and crew is not tenable. The buying crew sometimes has a leverage benefit, and that is very true in the apron period, the place paying the form of big salaries these stars get of their early 30s carries way more threat than reward. Antetokounmpo netted three picks, one swap and a handful of gamers that will not be foundational for the Bucks. We know Antetokounmpo had extra commerce worth than Brown as a result of the Celtics tried to commerce Brown and extra for Antetokounmpo, however a deal wasn’t struck. So if Antetokounmpo, a two-time MVP, was value three-and-a-half picks plus some participant worth, Brown being value two picks and a few participant worth feels in keeping with the new, cost-conscious NBA.
And then in fact, there’s the matter of what the participant worth really was. That brings us to George. From November by means of January of final season, George averaged simply 16 factors on 42-38-86 capturing. This was in keeping with his 2024-25 efficiency, and collectively, the year-and-a-half pattern felt dependable for an growing older star. Well, George then bought suspended 25 video games. When he returned in March, he was a 21-point scorer on higher capturing splits who appeared rejuvenated defensively. He went on to torch the Celtics in the first spherical of the playoffs. Most of us anticipated George to look extra like the participant he was earlier than that suspension in Boston. The Celtics wager that he would appear like who he was after, and so far, they’ve appeared right.
The uncooked numbers are very good: 20.4 factors, 47-43-81 capturing and his highest help and rebounding charges since he left the Clippers. The match has been even higher. Much was fabricated from how low many superior metrics are on Brown relative to his status, however the extra vital story right here was all the time his outlier standing inside Boston’s supposed crew construction. Joe Mazzulla desires to maximise 3-point try charge. George’s 3-point try charge to date this season (51.4%) is almost twice Brown’s (27.8%). Brad Stevens spoke brazenly about not wanting to pay attention utilization in two gamers, and George’s utilization charge is almost eight share factors decrease than Brown’s was a 12 months in the past. The Celtics needed this form of participant of their system and subsequent to Jayson Tatum, and it is working.
Yet simply as vitally, George helps the Celtics diversify a bit as a crew. The Celtics generated the second-fewest turnovers in the NBA final season. They’re averaging the eighth-most in the NBA so far this season, and George is the single largest cause why. Only Dyson Daniels and Scottie Barnes are averaging extra deflections, and amongst gamers who’ve performed a minimum of 4 video games, solely Daniels and Kris Dunn are producing extra steals.
The Celtics had the lowest free-throw try charge in the NBA final season as nicely. They’re proper round the center of the pack this 12 months. Tatum is the one drawing most of these fouls, however George is a important a part of the construction that will get Tatum to the line. Brown is usually a little bit of a ball-stopper. Among true forwards, solely Kawhi Leonard and Zion Williamson averaged extra seconds per contact than Brown a 12 months in the past. The common George contact this season lasts 3.3 seconds in comparison with slightly below 5 for Brown a 12 months in the past. It’s merely simpler to compromise a protection when the ball is transferring and gamers are making fast choices. That’s how defenses are compelled into rotation and wind up fouling out of desperation. As a crew, the Celtics have the sixth-lowest common time per contact this season in comparison with the eighth-highest a 12 months in the past.
Even the contract feels a bit extra palatable now than it did at the time. Brown would have grow to be eligible for an extension on his supermax contract final offseason, and primarily based on the season he had, he would have been greater than justified in asking for one. The Celtics, clearly, had no plans to commit further years to Brown on high of the three that he was already owed. George is not fairly dwelling as much as his supermax price ticket so far this season, however his deal is a 12 months shorter and comes with no such extension strain.
If something, his participant possibility for subsequent season opens some fascinating doorways for the Celtics in the event that they determine they’re pleased with this partnership. As of proper now, the Celtics have round $3 million in first-apron room for the 2027-28 season primarily based on present projections. Say they need to use the full mid-level exception on a free agent or maybe want a bit extra wiggle room to make a commerce. They might theoretically go to George and ask him to decrease his cap determine in change for an additional 12 months of safety. Turning a one-year, $56.6 million deal into, say, a two-year, $90 million deal might make sense for either side offered George sustains this stage of play.
The affordable worry that he won’t is why we cease at a “B-” for Boston. This remains to be his age-36 season. George has been injury-prone for many of his profession. He presumably is not going to get a 25-game break this season, and even when he is this good all 12 months, all of those advantages he is dropped at Boston are considerably regular-season-centric. The playoffs are a distinct recreation, one which leans far more into Brown’s strengths as a person shotmaker and man-to-man defender. The Celtics nonetheless by no means get to the rim. Their finest reply for opposing star guards might be Jordan Walsh, whose offense makes him exhausting to play for too lengthy. If Boston flames out in the playoffs, we would view Brown’s absence as one in all the greater explanation why. The path to truly successful this commerce will get paved in April and May.
But for now, a minimum of, it is beginning to make sense. The Celtics added two premium draft property in a method that allowed them to keep up their present enjoying fashion and keep away from taking a significant step again in the current. They sidestepped what most likely would have been an unpleasant contract negotiation, and the extra barbs get traded in the press, the clearer it turns into that this example merely was not salvageable. The Celtics needed to commerce Brown. The provides had been far decrease than we anticipated. Boston nonetheless managed to make the better of less-than-ideal circumstances and nonetheless elements prominently into the Eastern Conference championship image.
Philadelphia 76ers: A+
July grade: A+
Funnily sufficient, you could possibly fairly simply argue that George would really be a much better match for this iteration of the 76ers than Brown is. Philadelphia’s Twentieth-ranked offense has a bottom-five 3-point try charge and the eighth-highest common seconds per contact in the NBA. The Sixers might stand to commerce a few of that dribbling for a bit extra capturing. Considering how deadly their transition offense might be, George’s turnover era would additionally match this protection like a glove. The 76ers will get higher offensively. We’re nonetheless in tiny-sample season, and everybody’s nonetheless studying learn how to play collectively. But George is undeniably the simpler participant to suit onto a roster like this than Brown.
Of course, the 76ers would not have a roster like this with out Brown. Widespread reporting has made it clear that Philadelphia’s acquisition of Brown was what first caught the consideration of LeBron James in free company. If Brown was certainly a swing consider the 76ers getting LeBron, that assuages any short-term wage considerations for Brown. For God’s sake, the Philadelphia 76ers have LeBron James on a minimal contract. Even if Brown is overpaid, the surplus worth on the James contract greater than offsets any damaging worth there.
The 76ers have far much less cause to worry an extension than Boston did as nicely. By buying and selling Brown, the Celtics subjected him to the NBA’s six-month extend-and-trade restrictions. That meant he might solely tack one 12 months onto his contract moderately than two, and since he has a number of years remaining on his contract, he isn’t eligible to increase throughout the season. The 76ers due to this fact get to desk these discussions till the offseason at the earliest, and keep in mind, at that time, Brown shall be negotiating off of the extra modest statistics that include sacrificing for the sake of a superteam. It’s merely simpler to check Brown extending at lower than the max in Philadelphia than it could have been in Boston.
Speaking of sacrificing, keep in mind the complete “Jaylen Brown wants his own team” narrative from final offseason? For all we all know, it was true at the time and may need remained true had he stayed with the Celtics. So far, that has been an entire non-issue for the 76ers. Brown is at present sporting his lowest utilization charge since 2020 (earlier than he turned an All-Star). He’s turning the ball over round half as usually per 100 possessions as he did a season in the past. He’s an infinite a part of a protection that surprisingly ranks No. 6 in the NBA to date this season. He’s even openly called the 76ers Tyrese Maxey‘s crew.
And the 76ers are, clearly, successful. They’re principally successful clutch video games, however hey, you anticipate to win shut video games with 4 stars in your beginning lineup. They’re going to determine the finer factors of maximizing this expertise combine over time, however even the “getting to know each other” model of this group poses nearly unimaginable matchup issues for different groups. Take Cleveland, who has already confronted Philadelphia twice. Can you guess which two Cavalier defenders have spent the most partial possessions guarding Brown, per NBA.com tracking data? James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, at 60.6 mixed. Those are the form of defenders you attempt to cover on weak scorers to protect for offense. Well, the place precisely are Harden and Mitchell supposed to cover towards this crew? There are not any weak spots. The benefit of getting this many creators is that Philadelphia mainly begins each possession with an exploitable mismatch.
On pure expertise accumulation alone, that is the form of roster groups are likely to go all-in for. Philadelphia did not even should. While the Stepien Rule complicates the tradability of a few of their remaining picks, the 76ers are nonetheless slated to have 4 first-round picks in the subsequent seven drafts. There remains to be ammunition for some form of pivot right here, whether or not that is a short-term improve to maximise this title run or extra possible, some form of long-term change at heart as Joel Embiid will get older and probably much less dependable from a well being perspective.
There are going to be depth questions down the line. Even if Brown will get lower than a 35% max on his eventual extension, he will be dear. Maxey seems like a near-lock for a supermax extension in the years to come back, and whereas VJ Edgecombe will nearly actually be restricted to 25% of the cap on his rookie extension, he’ll nonetheless account for fairly a bit of cash. The 76ers are a top-heavy roster at present, and that is after hitting a couple of residence runs on the margins and getting arguably the biggest participant of all time to take the minimal. Sustaining competition past the “Embiid is still a matchup nightmare and LeBron is on the team” period goes to require near-perfect administration on the margins.
But this is not rocket science. How many groups have a trio they will really feel higher about for, say, the subsequent three-to-five years than Maxey, Brown and Edgecombe? The Brown commerce opened a right away championship window and certain ensured a comparatively excessive baseline for the remainder of the decade, assuming acceptable well being and smart choices elsewhere on the roster. It was an important commerce in July and it stays an important commerce at present.