2026 Fantasy Football Week 3 Defense (DST) Rankings and Streamers
As we mentioned final week, Week 1 of the NFL season almost broke the file books. The league mixed for 791 factors throughout 16 video games, which tied a mark set again in 2012. In reality, 11 of 32 groups scored 30 or extra factors; but, that didn’t maintain in Week 2. The league-wide scoring tempo has settled again down nearer to 22.5 factors allowed per staff per sport. We noticed the Bears go from scoring 59 factors in Week 1 to simply three factors in opposition to Minnesota in Week 2, whereas Carolina’s protection, which allowed these 59 factors, held Atlanta to simply three. That volatility ought to proceed within the first few weeks of the season.
We bounced again with our rankings in Week 2, getting six of the highest 10 defenses right. Surprisingly, two of the 4 defenses in Tier One didn’t come by: the Eagles in opposition to the Titans, and the Bucs in opposition to the Browns. It’s clear that we selected each of these groups due to their supposedly simple matchups, and whereas I do consider the Eagles are a great protection, I had my doubts concerning the Bucs. This is yet one more reminder for us that we should be focusing extra on the expertise on the defensive finish than simply the matchup.
Three of the 4 groups in tier two hit, and all of them (Patriots, Steelers, Rams) had been strong defenses that we put within the prime 10 as a result of we trusted their total expertise. Same goes for the Broncos, who landed again inside the highest 10. Combine that with what we simply realized concerning the Bucs, and it’s a reasonably agency reminder for us that we shouldn’t overrate matchups only one week into the season. They are a element, however only a small element whereas we work out simply how good groups truly are.
As a reminder, what you’ll get beneath, and each week, is not only my rankings but additionally my ideas on why groups are ranked how they’re. Tier One shall be my “elite” performs of the week. Tier Two shall be performs that I think about robust, whereas Tier Three will virtually all the time be borderline top-10 performs. Those are both good defenses in dangerous matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four shall be deep-league targets, and Tier Five shall be defenses that no person must be enjoying that exact week.
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Each week, I’ll maintain observe of what number of Top-10 defenses I appropriately referred to as, so we are able to all see how correct the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2026 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of prime 10 defenses appropriately predicted)
WEEK 2: 6-2
SEASON TOTAL: 10-10 (50% hit fee)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve learn my earlier articles, then you recognize that I worth defenses that get strain on the quarterback and create turnover alternatives, which is probably going what most individuals worth. However, meaning I have a look at underlying metrics and attempt to worth the standard of the protection over merely saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” Yet, after I did a deep dive this offseason, I found that the stats mostly related to prime 10 fantasy defenses had been first downs allowed, factors per sport allowed, and third-down conversion fee allowed. So although I like defenses who get strain, defenses who also can get off the sector shortly are typically the most effective fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isn’t a shock, however perhaps we’re probably not being attentive to the related stats when predicting fantasy defensive efficiency.
The subsequent 4 most predictive defensive stats had been strain fee, passes defended, turnover fee, and explosive play fee allowed (performs over 20+ yards). With that in thoughts, I made a decision to replace my Best Overall Defense (BOD) method to incorporate simply these seven stats. I doubled the burden of the primary three stats, that are extra predictive, and have a single weight for the opposite 4 stats. I additionally incorporate Vegas’ implied staff whole within the algorithm each week, and after we get opponent stats, I’ll embrace fantasy factors allowed to opposing defenses as a part of the equation since fantasy factors are the strongest predictor of fantasy factors.
I’ll clearly need to make changes to the algorithm every week to account for accidents or climate points, however I strive to not rank an excessive amount of on “gut feel” or considerations about wind, and so forth.
With that out of the way in which, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
Obviously, the harm to Jayden Daniels was one of many greatest accidents of Week 2, and whereas Marcus Mariota is greater than succesful as a backup, it does affect our rankings right here. We additionally noticed Nick Emmanwori return final week, and I count on his snap whole to extend this week. The Seahawks held Arizona to 151 whole yards on 10 drives and a 25% third-down fee. Now, Washington brings the league’s lowest implied whole into this sport, so it’s exhausting to have something however excessive confidence within the Seahawks.
The Chiefs are at present 16th in strain fee, and Steve Spagnuolo’s unit isn’t excellent, as Jonathan Taylor bought unfastened for 2 scores final week. However, the Chiefs have additionally performed the Broncos and Colts, who’ve two of the most effective offensive strains in soccer, which might clarify the poor strain fee. This Miami offense seems to be like a catastrophe. Malik Willis mentioned he didn’t need to take sacks in Week 2 and then took 4 sacks. He holds onto the ball too lengthy, doesn’t appear to need to scramble, and the staff gained’t let him push the ball down the sector. I don’t suppose Miami goes to cease the Chiefs, which goes to power the Dolphins to cross to remain within the sport within the second half, and that’s going to result in sacks. When you consider that I additionally don’t count on the Dolphins to attain many factors (they’ve the 2nd-lowest implied staff whole on the slate), then the Chiefs really feel like a extremely strong play this week.
Brian Flores’ protection held Caleb Williams to a 56.2 passer score even earlier than Williams bought damage. The Vikings blitz excess of any staff within the NFL and have created extra strain than any staff within the NFL to this point this season. Dallas Turner already has three sacks and 11 QB hits in two video games on this breakout season, and Baker Mayfield seemingly welcomes strain in order that he can run round and attempt to play hero ball. Baker’s poor play has truly prolonged into the previous couple of weeks of final season, and I believe Flores will power him into dangerous throws and some sacks this week, making the Vikings a strong play.
After enjoying internationally in Week 1, San Francisco bought a simple matchup in Week 2 in opposition to the Dolphins. That makes it exhausting to actually understand how good this 49ers protection is, however I are inclined to consider that they’ve clear potential, and I additionally don’t suppose this Cardinals offense is greater than a median offense. The 49ers are Fifth in strain fee by two weeks, which must be a bonus in opposition to a mediocre Cardinals offensive line, and the Cardinals have the Sixth-lowest implied staff whole on the slate. If you added the 49ers for Week 2, I’d maintain onto them this week.
The Eagles’ rating is just a little unresolved for me. Ben Johnson mentioned on Tuesday that Caleb Williams is “week to week” and anticipated to overlook a while. I’d assume, given how essential Williams is and how he reacted to his harm, that the Bears will maintain him out for at the very least every week. That would result in Tyson Bagent beginning this sport, and he didn’t look nice in opposition to the Vikings. Yes, that was within the rain, however it will be an actual downgrade for the Bears offense, and they at present have the Seventh-lowest implied staff whole on the slate. Even with a mediocre exhibiting in opposition to Tennessee, the place the Eagles allowed 5.7 yards/play and a 46.2% conversion fee on third down, I believe they’re in play right here.
Yes, the Jaguars protection didn’t contact Bo Nix final week, however they’ve been a prime 10 protection in strain fee to this point this season. That Broncos offensive line is without doubt one of the finest in soccer, and the Patriots offensive line was pretty common, and that was earlier than they misplaced Michael Onwenu to a damaged ankle final week. Pair that with A.J. Brown nonetheless not enjoying for the Patriots, I believe it is a secure ground spot for a Jaguars at dwelling that has been doing a great job of limiting third-down conversions and explosive performs. The Jags could not “win” you every week, however I don’t suppose they’re going to harm you both.
I’m just a little greater on Carolina than the uncooked numbers need me to be, and maybe that’s me placing an excessive amount of weight on video games in opposition to Cooper Rush and a Bears sport that bought sloppy within the second half. The Panthers’ run protection hasn’t seemed nice on paper, however their strain fee and disruption have been actual, and Cleveland’s offense, particularly their offensive line, isn’t the form of unit that ought to change that. I do know the Browns simply beat the Bucs, however I nonetheless don’t consider in Deshaun Watson, and I don’t suppose Quinshon Judkins goes to have as a lot success on the bottom as Bijan Robinson had. I’m going again to the properly with the Panthers right here.
New England sacked Aaron Rodgers 4 occasions and pressured two takeaways with security Harold Landry on IR and Dre’Mont Jones getting damage in Week 2. I believe their defensive success in 2025 was much more real looking than their offensive efficiency. The Steelers aren’t an awesome offense, however the Patriots restricted them to 4.7 yards per cross try. That’s going to be harder to do in opposition to the Jaguars, however I believe this Patriots protection is proving to be playable in most matchups.
The Rams’ numbers in week two seemed just like the protection we anticipated firstly of the season. Their strain fee and third-down protection are each trending up, which is sweet to see even with Myles Garrett damage. A giant motive for that’s that Aaron Donald returned in Week 2 and performed 32 of 55 snaps. He was additionally double-teamed on seven of his 18 cross rush snaps, which clearly opens up alternatives for his teammates. Denver’s offense is strong however inconsistent, and so I believe I can belief the Rams as a great unit right here.
After a poor defensive exhibiting in opposition to Buffalo, Houston bounced again in opposition to Cincinnati in Week 2, permitting a 33.3% conversion fee on third down and 1.5 factors per drive. One of the 2 touchdowns they allowed was on an insane catch from Ja’Marr Chase that few different receivers within the NFL would have made. I nonetheless consider on this protection, and I believe they may get strain on a still-recovering Daniel Jones, which can result in sacks and probably an interception or two.
I’ve gone again and forth on how a lot inventory to place in Cincinnati holding Tampa Bay and Houston to 33 mixed factors. The addition of Dexter Lawrence is an actual issue, and holding Houston working again to 18 speeding yards on 14 carries could possibly be an actual signal there. The Bengals are additionally doing an awesome job of limiting touchdowns and are 4th within the league in turnover fee within the early going. I wouldn’t name this a smash spot, however I’m not a fan of this Aaron Rodgers-led Steelers offense, so I’m OK utilizing the Bengals this week.
Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley earned his reward this weekend by holding the Ravens to 64 whole yards in 4 second-half drives. Yes, the Ravens didn’t have Zay Flowers on this one, however they didn’t within the first half both, and they had been shifting the ball, so the Saints protection made the changes and clamped down. Las Vegas hasn’t been constant sufficient offensively for me to count on a special story right here, and I belief Brandon Staley to have his protection able to go.
I ought to make this clear that this rating is solely as a result of we’ve had experiences that Michael Penix goes to be returning in Week 3. If that’s the case, I believe we see a drastically completely different Falcons offense. I don’t suppose they’re an elite offense, however I additionally suppose the quarterback play with Cooper Rush was a travesty. Penix will play behind a strong offensive line with an elite working again in Bijan Robinson, an elite receiver in Drake London, and a strong tight finish in Kyle Pitts. Lukas Van Ness has been good for the Packers, however keep in mind that this protection scored simply 5 fantasy factors in opposition to the Jets in Week 2 within the rain. Are the Falcons with Penix that a lot worse than the Jets offense? I don’t consider so, and so I’ve the Packers as a playable protection however one exterior my prime 10 proper now.
The Steelers stay a strong protection and are prime 10 in each strain fee and third-down conversion fee to this point this season. Getting two takeaways and permitting simply 91 internet passing yards to Drake Maye is an efficient week. However, we all know A.J. Brown didn’t play in that sport, and Cincinnati is enjoying higher offensive soccer than anybody the Steelers have confronted to this point this yr. As a end result, I’d keep away in something however deeper codecs.
Yes, the Raiders are 2-0, however I don’t need to give them an excessive amount of credit score for limiting the Chargers to 14 factors after additionally beating the Dolphins in Week 1. The Chargers offense seems to be like a multitude and fumbled the ball six occasions on Sunday. SIX! The Raiders getting three takeaways in a single sport isn’t one thing I’d wager on repeating, however the ground right here is okay in opposition to an inconsistent Saints offense on the opposite aspect.
Speaking of that Chargers offense, they haven’t seemed proper to begin the season, and it’s completely doable that boy genius Mike McDaniel has created a system that’s too exhausting to regulate to shortly. The inside of their offensive line is a significant concern proper now, and the Bills, regardless of their defensive lapses, are Sixth in strain fee proper now. I count on the Bills protection to proceed to regulate to their new scheme because the yr goes on, however we may additionally argue that with the Chargers on offense right here. This shall be a sport of which staff can adapt to a brand new model of play faster, and that’s a troublesome gamble to take this early within the season.
The Browns gained on Sunday and sacked Baker Mayfield 3 times, which must be lauded. They have additionally accomplished a great job this season of limiting touchdowns within the crimson zone. However, the Panthers seem like a greater offense than the Bucs proper now. Bryce Young is enjoying good soccer, and Tetaroia McMillan and Jalen Coker give him two reliable weapons. I additionally nonetheless consider that the Browns protection will put their offense in some dangerous spots, and so I can’t depend on this protection an excessive amount of this Sunday.
The Titans have the Fifth-lowest implied staff whole on the slate, so we have to at the very least think about the Giants right here. However, a 65% third-down conversion fee allowed and a 19.1% strain fee isn’t a protection I need to rank a lot greater than this. Jaxson Dart‘s knee injury could also lead to quick drives or Jameis Winston turnovers, which could put the Giants defense in bad spots. Tennessee’s offense is dangerous sufficient to maintain this from being a catastrophe, however that’s in all probability the one motive I’ve the Giants this excessive.
Defenses ranked this low could also be intriguing, however I can’t think about enjoying them exterior of the deepest codecs.
I just like the Ravens and Broncos defenses, however there are usually not good matchups for them. I can’t return to trusting the Falcons protection after final week, and Kyler Murray must be again this week, so I can’t belief a Bucs protection that allow us down and seemed dangerous in opposition to Deshaun Watson. Dallas Goedert being out helps the Bears protection, however not sufficient for me to rank them greater, and this Lions protection is simply too beat up for me to think about them in opposition to the Jets. They’re down their two beginning safeties, and now Avonte Maddox is completed for the season. The Jets aren’t a ok offense to totally punish the Lions the way in which the Bills did, however they’re a strong unit that may transfer the ball, and Geno Smith tends to keep away from main errors.
As all the time, I can’t advocate enjoying any protection that you simply see right here in Tier 5.