MLB playoffs 2026: Fatal October flaws for every contender
With the 2026 Major League Baseball playoffs simply across the nook, two quotes come to thoughts from Billy Beane, the previous main league outfielder and present Athletics entrance workplace government.
“How can you not be romantic about baseball?” Beane’s character asks within the film “Moneyball.” Maybe he had this yr’s American League West race in thoughts.
The actual Billy Beane, in a despondent second in 2002, advised Michael Lewis, writer of “Moneyball,” “My s— doesn’t work in the playoffs.”
Beane’s Oakland groups by no means did attain a World Series, which was extra in regards to the excessive variance of quick playoff sequence quite than his stuff not likely working, however you possibly can apply that quote to any of this yr’s playoff contenders. They all have deadly flaws.
(Of course, two of them will attain the World Series anyway … and that is the romance half.)
Let’s break down what every contender’s deadly flaw is and whether or not it’ll sink that staff in October — or whether or not the staff can overcome it to make a deep postseason run.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Fatal flaw: Lack of energy (tied for twenty eighth within the majors in dwelling runs)
The Brewers have clinched their fourth consecutive NL Central title and eighth playoff look in 9 seasons with what has been the perfect staff in franchise historical past. Last yr’s squad set the franchise report with 97 wins, and this yr’s staff ought to attain 100 with a well-rounded roster constructed round seemingly Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski.
How they received there’s fascinating: Only the Cubs have scored extra runs than Milwaukee, though the Brewers may find yourself final within the majors in dwelling runs. Only 32.6% of Milwaukee’s runs have been scored by way of the lengthy ball, simply the bottom share within the majors, the place the general common for 2026 is 40.6%. And this is the factor to fret about: Over the previous 10 postseasons (leaving out 2020), the share of runs scored by way of the house run has gone up every year in comparison with the common season.
This means hitting dwelling runs is much more vital within the postseason. Perfectly executed small ball can actually play a task at instances, however it’s harder to place collectively sustained rallies towards higher pitching with out mixing in some energy. Over the previous 10 postseasons, once more excluding 2020, the playoff staff with the fewest dwelling runs within the common season has gone 17-29 and failed to achieve a World Series.
On the opposite hand, the staff with essentially the most dwelling runs — it has been the Yankees 5 instances — has reached just one World Series, with the Yankees shedding to the Dodgers in 2024 (Los Angeles was third in dwelling runs that season, simply 4 behind New York). Those groups have gone 31-41, so that they’ve performed 72 postseason video games in comparison with 46 for the groups on the backside in dwelling runs.
This doesn’t suggest it is best to write off the Brewers. For one factor, they’ve been hitting and slugging a lot better since June in comparison with the primary two months:
April-May: .242/.328/.359, 0.71 dwelling runs per recreation
June-September: .269/.349/.430, 1.10 dwelling runs per recreation
Jackson Chourio sat out April, Jake Bauers has been terrific, and Joey Ortiz has been among the finest hitters within the majors for the reason that All-Star break, so the present lineup is deeper than the one early within the season. The Brewers often discover methods to attain — they have been held to at least one run or zero runs solely 12 instances all season, six fewer than another staff — and if Misiorowski and Logan Henderson and the bullpen are dealing, they solely should hit extra dwelling runs than their opponents.
Fatal flaw: Second-half offensive struggles (tied for sixteenth in runs since July 1)
The Dodgers are accustomed to taking a loaded offense into the postseason: They had been first in runs in 2020, fourth in 2021 (first within the pre-DH NL), first in 2022, second in 2023, second in 2024 and second in 2025. They nonetheless rank fourth in 2026, however the runs have been a lot tougher to return by since early July.
Injuries have performed an element: Shohei Ohtani‘s knee, Freddie Freeman‘s knee, Andy Pages‘ fractured left hand, and Will Smith sat out all of July and August. But there’s nonetheless some uncertainty with these accidents: Ohtani will not return till 5 video games are left within the common season, Freeman is taking part in via his sore knee, and Pages has but to return. The lineup is previous — solely Pages and Kyle Tucker are youthful than 30 among the many regulars — and may as soon as once more be relying on Miguel Rojas and Enrique Hernandez to return up large within the postseason. The Dodgers will want Ohtani to rapidly discover his groove — or perhaps even rookie Josue De Paula performs a task someplace.
Minus Ohtani, who will not pitch once more this season, the rotation remains to be robust with the large three of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell, with Tyler Glasnow most likely slotting in because the fourth starter. Caveat: Snell left his begin Wednesday after one inning due to groin tightness, so keep watch over that scenario. The bullpen actually has some points with Edgardo Henriquez on the injured checklist and Edwin Diaz now trying as if he will not even be on the postseason roster. Blake Treinen may must get some key outs once more.
Bottom line: Even with Yamamoto and Skubal, this appears like essentially the most flawed Dodgers staff throughout this long term of postseason appearances.
Fatal flaw: Can they hit within the postseason? (.186 common from 2022 to 2024)
After profitable the World Series in 2021, the Braves had disappointing NLDS exits in 2022 and 2023, following 100-win common seasons, after which a wild-card defeat in 2024 (earlier than lacking the playoffs final season). They went 2-8 in these three abbreviated postseason sequence, hitting simply .186 whereas averaging 2.5 runs per recreation.
The 2026 staff consists of primarily the identical group of gamers that struggled in these postseasons, plus second-year catcher/DH Drake Baldwin. The Braves do some issues nicely on offense, together with hitting dwelling runs: Matt Olson has 39, and Baldwin, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies have every surpassed 20 dwelling runs, with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley closing in on 20. That’s energy up and down the lineup, even when Acuña and Riley have been rather more harmful gamers up to now.
The one factor the Braves do not do is draw many walks, as they rank twenty eighth in stroll fee and twenty ninth in chase fee. They have a number of aggressive swingers within the likes of Harris, Albies, Mauricio Dubon and even Baldwin — hitters that good pitchers can exploit within the postseason.
Fatal flaw: The ninth inning (Jacob Webb leads the membership with 9 saves)
It does not really feel good heading into the postseason and questioning who’s going to get the ball within the ninth inning. Webb is a journeyman right-hander with a below-average fastball pitching for his fourth staff in 4 seasons. He grew to become the nearer in June however has now blown 4 consecutive save alternatives, shedding three of these video games.
Maybe Chicago goes with Ryan Zeferjahn? Acquired from the Los Angeles Angels on the commerce deadline, he no less than has a more in-depth’s fastball (averaging 97 mph) and has picked up the previous two saves this month for the Cubs, however he walks too many batters and has a 4.09 ERA on the season (5.65 with Chicago). Ryan Rolison? The lefty picked up a save earlier in September towards the Brewers, however right-handed batters have an OPS over .900 towards him. Daniel Palencia? Last yr’s nearer hasn’t been trusted in high-leverage conditions since coming back from the IL.
It’s a large number. The Dodgers managed to outlive their nearer points final October, however they’d beginning pitching depth they might use in aid, which the Cubs haven’t got. The Rangers had a nasty bullpen in 2023 that received sizzling on the proper time, so it is potential. But Cubs supervisor Craig Counsell goes to undergo lots of antacids if his staff makes a deep run.
Fatal flaw: Jesus Luzardo‘s harm (out due to shoulder irritation)
The Phillies haven’t got an excellent offense, they positively do not play nice protection and the bullpen has been shaky at instances, so their path to World Series heroics runs via Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Luzardo. In reality, Luzardo might need been in line to begin the primary recreation of the playoffs the way in which he had been pitching, with a 1.08 ERA over his previous seven begins and 1.70 since June 10.
The Phillies stay hopeful he can return for the playoffs, however additionally they have not introduced any timetable. They most likely must survive no less than the wild-card sequence with out him, which pushes Aaron Nola into the third recreation if wanted. That may work: Nola has been pitching his finest baseball in a number of years, with a 2.38 ERA over his previous 9 begins. That ERA is a bit of deceptive, although, as he has nonetheless been a bit of homer-prone and has a 4.44 FIP in that span.
And if the Phillies advance and Luzardo nonetheless cannot make it again, that places rookie Andrew Painter within the four-man rotation. He has been higher since coming back from the minors so it isn’t a misplaced trigger, however you possibly can see why president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been getting some warmth for not including a starter on the commerce deadline.
Not to say: With final-week sequence towards the Brewers and Rays, the Phillies nonetheless should get to the playoffs within the first place.
Fatal flaw: Rotation does not miss bats (twenty ninth in strikeout fee since Aug. 1)
We’re going to the start of August to evaluate the rotation, since that features Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, acquired on the commerce deadline. The downside is Mize has been horrible with the Padres, with a 5.97 ERA and solely 22 strikeouts and 9 dwelling runs in 37⅔ innings. The means he has been pitching, he does not even mission as a viable choice for the playoffs proper now. Ray has been virtually as dangerous, with a 5.35 ERA and 24 walks in 33⅔ innings. Michael King is the ace, however even he does not miss a ton of bats, rating seventy fifth out of 132 pitchers who’ve thrown no less than 100 innings in strikeout fee.
San Diego has that nice bullpen, after all, so it will not want its starters to pitch lots of innings, and the offense has been glorious within the second half after an terrible first half, so no less than that concern has been alleviated. The Padres nonetheless must get in — the season-ending sequence towards the Diamondbacks may decide the ultimate wild card — however they’re going to want one thing from their starters to make that long-awaited World Series run.
Fatal flaw: Rotation does not miss bats (twenty first since Aug. 1)
The Diamondbacks nonetheless should get in, but when they do, they face the identical downside because the Padres, with a rotation that does not provide the facility pitching and swing-and-miss stuff that executives need in October.
Eduardo Rodriguez has had an incredible season regardless of a below-average Okay fee, however the batted ball metrics recommend he has been a bit of bit fortunate and has relied on a excessive strand fee. Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt had some large moments in Arizona’s 2023 World Series run, however they rank 124th and a hundred and twentieth, respectively, on that checklist of 132 pitchers in strikeout fee.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Fatal flaw: Lineup depth (twenty fourth in OPS from 7-8-9 slots in lineup)
There’s no doubting the highest a part of the Tampa Bay lineup, with Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero, plus commerce acquisition Liam Hicks has moved into the cleanup spot towards right-handed pitching. But the underside third of the lineup has been a problem for many of the season. Is that an issue for the playoffs? It does really feel as if latest World Series contributors have had deep lineups and have not needed to depend on just a few stars. Let’s test that speculation by seeing how the World Series groups ranked in OPS from their 7-8-9 hitters within the common season (going again to 2022 when the NL instituted the DH):
2025 Dodgers: seventeenth
2025 Blue Jays: ninth
2024 Dodgers: ninth
2024 Yankees: sixteenth
2023 Rangers: fifth
2023 D-backs: twenty first
2022 Astros: twenty fourth
2022 Phillies: fifth
OK, perhaps not an enormous indicator, however it’s one thing. Now let’s have a look at how these 7-8-9 slots truly hit within the postseason:
2025 Dodgers: .218/.275/.311, 3 HR, 15 RBIs in 17 G
2025 Blue Jays: .251/.299/.362, 4 HR, 25 RBIs in 18 G
2024 Dodgers: .235/.303/.398, 8 HR, 21 RBIs in 16 G
2024 Yankees: .240/.355/.377, 4 HR, 17 RBIs in 14 G
2023 Rangers: .250/.335/.472, 9 HR, 22 RBIs in 17 G
2023 D-backs: .231/.297/.364, 6 HR, 17 RBIs in 17 G
2022 Astros: .164/.252/.224, 2 HR, 8 RBIs in 13 G
2022 Phillies: .180/.256/.286, 2 HR, 18 RBIs in 17 G
A stronger indicator right here. Miguel Rojas, the No. 9 batter, saved the Dodgers’ season alive final yr with that tying dwelling run within the ninth inning of Game 7. In 2024, Enrique Hernandez had a 1.069 OPS from the underside of the order for L.A. whereas Max Muncy and Will Smith additionally hit there at instances. The backside of the order was completely big for the Rangers in 2023. Only the Astros in 2022 gained with out getting a lot from the underside third, however that was the postseason that Houston’s pitching was practically untouchable.
Fatal flaw: Offensive strikeout fee (twenty seventh within the majors)
The Yankees are in some way ninth within the majors in runs regardless of not having Aaron Judge for 100 days and struggling via lengthy stretches of offensive futility with out him. Now they’re battling extra accidents, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham on the IL, and Judge, just back from the IL, leaving Wednesday’s game because of leg tightness.
As at all times, the Yankees hit dwelling runs — solely the Cubs have extra. But it comes with a worth: lots of swing-and-miss. Can a staff make a run to the World Series with a excessive strikeout fee? Going again to 2022 and the common DH, no staff within the backside half of strikeout fee has reached the World Series:
2025 Dodgers: twelfth
2025 Blue Jays: 1st
2024 Dodgers: eleventh
2024 Yankees: ninth
2023 Rangers: fifteenth
2023 D-backs: 4th
2022 Astros: 2nd
2022 Phillies: fifteenth
After reaching the World Series in 2024, the Yankees have gone backward within the strikeout division, rating twenty fifth final season and even decrease this yr (an issue exacerbated by Spencer Jones and his 36% Okay fee, if he has to play middle subject over the injured Grisham).
Fatal flaw: Middle infield (twenty sixth in OPS from 2B/SS)
It has been a revolving door at each center infield positions all season because the Red Sox have began seven gamers at second base and 6 at shortstop, with Trevor Story‘s 55 video games began at shortstop essentially the most at both place. Not solely has the mixed offense from these spots been close to the underside of the league, however the Sox rank nineteenth in defensive runs saved at second base and twenty seventh at shortstop.
Let’s begin with Story, since interim supervisor Chad Tracy appears dedicated to him because the shortstop. Since Story returned from the IL on Aug. 30, he has hit .349 in 16 video games. It’s a fluke: He has one dwelling run, one stroll, 18 strikeouts and a 49% chase fee. His common exit velocity of 82.5 mph ranks a hundred and eightieth out of 185 gamers since that date. A as soon as dynamic fielder, his defensive metrics have been subpar for a few years now.
With Anthony Seigler on the IL due to wrist irritation, Nick Sogard is the common at second base now, though veteran Isiah Kiner-Falefa may begin towards lefties. Sogard has hit nicely, and his protection is okay (he has performed everywhere in the infield, even beginning 4 video games at shortstop). Andruw Monasterio stuffed in at shortstop for a lot of the summer season and might hit lefties, however he has barely performed since Story returned. Frankly, Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa are most likely each higher choices than Story, however we’ll see how Tracy performs this remaining week and into October.
Fatal flaw: Lack of energy (tied for twenty eighth in dwelling runs)
Cleveland falls into the identical boat because the Brewers, besides the Guardians haven’t got Milwaukee’s means to hit for common or total depth. They did add Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe on the commerce deadline, and although that pair just isn’t the one motive, the offense has been a lot better since then:
Through Aug. 3: .231/.310/.370, 3.95 runs per recreation (twenty ninth)
Since Aug. 3: .251/.324/.386, 4.63 runs per recreation (tied for eighth)
Steven Kwan‘s turnaround has actually been the large key, as he has posted a .406 OBP since Aug. 4 and is tied for fourth within the majors in runs. If he retains getting on base and Jose Ramirez will get sizzling — sadly, he has been dangerous within the postseason in his profession (.234/.316/.365) — you by no means know within the wild and wacky and unremarkable AL.
Fatal flaw: Bullpen is out of fuel (see Cleveland sequence)
The White Sox are working on fumes. Manager Will Venable has tried to work across the staff’s lack of pitching depth through the use of openers and relying closely on a bullpen that has pitched essentially the most innings within the majors. But the overworked pen paid the toll in shedding the ultimate two video games of the Cleveland sequence this week, permitting the Guardians to leap into first place within the division.
On Tuesday, Grant Taylor tried to complete a two-inning save however blew the sport within the backside of the ninth, his fourth straight nonscoreless look. The subsequent day, Hagen Smith tried to pitch two innings for the fourth time in seven days however drained and walked two batters. Sean Newcomb got here on and served up the deciding dwelling run. It was the fifth time in six appearances he has given up no less than one run after he completed August with two straight three-inning outings.
The offense can also be working out of steam, hitting .207 in September with a ton of strikeouts — they struck out 36 instances in three video games towards Cleveland and are averaging over 10 strikeouts in September. It has been a enjoyable journey, however the White Sox are precariously holding on to a playoff spot.
Fatal flaw: Starting pitching … ? (twenty seventh in rotation ERA)
The worst nightmare for followers exterior of Houston: The Astros win the AL West with a sub-.500 report after which get sizzling and provides us the primary losing team to reach a World Series. Fun! Hey, within the AL, something is feasible — and the Astros’ bullpen has been fairly good of late with a dominant Josh Hader, and any lineup with Yordan Alvarez has the potential to do sufficient harm (though Alvarez might want to warmth up once more simply to get Houston to the postseason). The Astros are third within the majors in dwelling runs, so that they do have energy.
The beginning pitching makes that situation rather less believable, though we must always level out that the rotation has a 3.15 ERA in September (fourth within the majors) with Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski each pitching nicely. Even Cristian Javier has now had three good begins in a row. And Peter Lambert has been the one constant and wholesome starter all through the season for the Astros. So let’s have a look at: dominant nearer, the perfect hitter within the recreation this season, energy and a rotation that has been largely terrible all season however is peaking on the proper time. Consider your self warned.
Fatal flaw: Struggles towards right-handed pitching (twenty sixth in OPS)
The Rangers have managed to hold round all season, hovering round .500 with none large swings in momentum in both path — by no means greater than three video games out of first place — and 4 straight wins heading into Thursday’s sequence finale towards the Red Sox moved them right into a tie with the Astros atop the division. Nathan Eovaldi is again after sitting out greater than a month and pitched the ultimate 4 innings in aid Wednesday, giving up just one hit, so that may assist the pitching employees.
The offense has been the largest subject all through the season, notably towards right-handers. Left-handed hitters Brandon Nimmo and Corey Seager have each fared higher towards southpaws (though Seager is hitting everybody in September). Team MVP Ezequiel Duran has a .406 OBP towards lefties, .299 towards righties. Jake Burger has a .908 OPS towards left-handers, .666 towards right-handers. Josh Jung is hitting .352 towards lefties, .281 towards righties.
This suggests the Rangers may match up higher towards the Red Sox (all these lefty starters) and even the Yankees (Max Fried and Carlos Rodon) than the Rays or Guardians.
Fatal flaw: Offense (twenty ninth in runs)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s issues this season have been well documented — simply 9 dwelling runs, together with just one at dwelling — however producing runs has been a teamwide subject, as practically every participant has seen his numbers drop from 2025. Like final season, the Jays are a high-contact lineup (solely the Rays strike out much less usually), however even Kazuma Okamoto‘s 33 dwelling runs have not been sufficient to carry this group from the underside of the majors in offense. Only the Angels have scored fewer runs. Maybe Guerrero turns it on if the Jays sneak in, however the lineup has proven no indicators of creating a deep October run.