Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 3
One of the greatest questions heading into this season was if the SEC may snap the Big Ten’s streak of three nationwide titles, and with the SEC incomes three of the top 4 spots this week, it seems there isn’t any scarcity of choices to strive.
And Ole Miss is now one in every of them.
With Saturday’s assertion win towards LSU, the Rebels’ College Football Playoff hopes have skyrocketed, however how far has LSU dropped? (Hint: not so far as Texas A&M after its loss to Kentucky).
While Miami and Notre Dame stay in a good race, and BYU and Texas Tech are nonetheless carrying the Big 12 banner, they’re all nonetheless wanting up at the SEC. Based on historic information and an understanding of the standards and protocol, here is a have a look at what the choice committee may do if the rankings had been at present.
Projecting the top 12
Why they might be right here: Committee members may nonetheless view the Longhorns’ Week 2 win towards Ohio State as the greatest win in the nation. It helped Texas that Ohio State did not come out flat towards Kent State on Saturday and confirmed no indicators of a letdown in a 59-3 win. The identical might be mentioned for Texas in its win towards UTSA. Texas ranks amongst the greatest in the nation in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and in whole effectivity as nicely, so it isn’t solely passing the eye check, it is also backing it up statistically.
Why they might be decrease: Some choice committee members may argue that the Ole Miss win towards LSU was larger, and that the Rebels’ general résumé is stronger due to the win towards Louisville. It helped Ole Miss that Louisville beat a ranked SMU staff Saturday.
Need to know: If Ohio State goes on to win the Big Ten, which it’s at present projected to do based on ESPN Analytics, the Longhorns’ Week 2 win may wind up being the greatest in the nation on Selection Day.
Toughest remaining recreation: Nov. 14 at LSU. It’s one in every of the most daunting venues in the sport, and ESPN’s FPI nonetheless offers Texas a 65.5% likelihood to win. While the regular-season finale towards Texas A&M will not be simple, the Aggies confirmed Saturday they’ve a number of points to repair if they will be a think about the SEC race.
Why they might be right here: Not solely do the Rebels have one in every of the greatest résumés in the nation, in addition they might need the greatest quarterback. The choice committee held Chambliss in excessive regard final 12 months and can do it once more after he accounted for 3 touchdowns (two passing, one speeding) towards LSU. The season-opening win towards Louisville seems even higher after the Cardinals beat a ranked SMU staff Saturday.
Why they might be greater: Yes, the Rebels have a case for No. 1 as a result of two wins towards ranked opponents — Louisville and LSU — is one thing no different staff in the nation can at present declare. The win towards Louisville was additionally a neutral-site recreation.
Need to know: Ole Miss has the third-toughest remaining schedule in the nation, based on ESPN Research. The win towards LSU was vital for playoff and SEC implications, but it surely was additionally very important to provide the Rebels some respiratory room down the stretch. They have back-to-back highway video games towards Florida and Vandy looming, plus nonetheless should face Texas and Georgia.
Toughest remaining recreation: Oct. 24 at Texas. It will probably be the Rebels’ third highway journey in 5 weeks. (They have a bye week between Florida and Vandy.)
Why they might be right here: The Buckeyes would doubtless be the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss staff as a result of the group would not penalize them an excessive amount of for one dangerous quarter on the highway towards the committee’s No. 1 staff. Ohio State additionally did not let Texas beat it twice by popping out flat Saturday towards Kent State. The Buckeyes confirmed no indicators of a letdown and have averted something near an upset to date. It’s additionally nonetheless one in every of the nation’s most gifted groups, and the committee loves star energy. On Saturday, Heisman hopeful receiver Jeremiah Smith broke the college’s profession receiving yardage document.
Why they might be decrease: Ohio State’s two wins have come towards unranked Mid-American Conference groups Ball State and Kent State. While they’ve outscored these groups 115-3, the committee would contemplate that the defenses for Ball State and Kent State had been amongst the worst in faculty soccer in factors allowed per recreation.
Need to know: Ohio State will play three of its 4 October video games on the highway, and all of them ought to be towards ranked opponents (Iowa, Indiana and USC). It’s good timing to impress the committee, which can launch its first of six rankings on Nov. 3, the Tuesday after Ohio State’s recreation at USC.
Toughest remaining recreation: Oct. 17 at Indiana. Ohio State may simply be a two-loss staff earlier than the committee meets in November, and the journey to Bloomington will probably be vital in figuring out that. If the Buckeyes lose to the defending nationwide champs, they will be in must-win mode at USC however have a well-timed bye week to arrange for the Trojans.
Why they might be right here: As nicely as Georgia has performed, the Bulldogs have performed one in every of the worst schedules in the nation up to now. That will clearly change as Georgia will get deeper into SEC play, however the committee doesn’t look forward. A dominant win towards a beleaguered Arkansas staff below a first-year head coach will not sway the committee a lot, even whether it is an SEC highway win. Still, the group likes full groups, and Georgia has been one in every of the most effective in the nation via three weeks.
Why they might be greater: The eye check is the whole lot with these guys. The Bulldogs are clearly one in every of the greatest groups in the nation and able to competing for the nationwide title. This was the first time quarterback Gunner Stockton even performed the whole recreation as a result of the Bulldogs have had such lopsided wins towards unranked, overmatched opponents. Georgia’s protection held Arkansas to simply 17 speeding yards Saturday.
Need to know: What issues most is the place the committee ranks an opponent heading into Selection Day, so if Georgia beats Oklahoma and in the end helps knock the Sooners out of the committee’s top 25, it should impression Georgia’s résumé. It will not matter, although, if Georgia locks up a bid with the SEC title.
Toughest remaining recreation: Oct. 10 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI offers Georgia no less than a 50% likelihood to win every of its remaining video games, however this one is the closest to a coin toss at 53.6%.
Why they might be right here: The committee would love that the Canes have gained two of three video games on the highway, together with 2,500 miles away at Stanford in the season opener. They had been lastly examined, although, on Friday at Wake Forest. The offense was slowed for the first time all season, however the protection got here via. The committee members are going maintain quarterback Darian Mensah in excessive regard, and on Friday he accomplished his first 24 passes to set an ACC document for consecutive completions.
Why they might be decrease: Miami hasn’t performed a ranked opponent but.
Need to know: The committee considers accidents to key gamers as a part of its evaluations, and the Canes are monitoring star receiver Malachi Toney, who limped off the subject towards Wake Forest, and operating again Mark Fletcher Jr. was additionally banged up. “They’re going to be evaluated,” coach Mario Cristobal mentioned after the recreation. “We’ll find out exactly where they’re at once we get back and get them with the docs and assess them more.” Miami ought to be a heavy favourite in its upcoming dwelling recreation towards Central Michigan earlier than heading to Clemson on Oct. 3.
Toughest remaining recreation: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. The two nationwide title contenders ought to each be unbeaten once they meet in South Bend for a recreation the committee will probably be watching carefully.
Why they might be right here: The Irish are 2-0 towards the Big Ten, which is greater than the Big Ten’s top contenders can declare up to now. While wins towards unranked Wisconsin and Michigan State do not precisely make a press release, they’d nonetheless doubtless be thought-about respectable in the committee assembly room as greater worth opponents than another contenders have confronted. Notre Dame hasn’t performed an FCS opponent like some groups have. The committee would additionally contemplate the problem of taking part in Wisconsin at Lambeau Field however acknowledge Notre Dame’s general stats are partially inflated from a 52-0 win towards Rice.
Why they might be greater: Notre Dame’s protection has been elite, and the offense additionally ranks in the top 10 in effectivity.
Need to know: Notre Dame’s remaining schedule is No. 50 in the nation, based on ESPN Analytics, however the committee will extremely worth wins towards BYU and Miami if the Irish can go 2-0 towards these groups. The head-to-head tiebreakers would even be vital to the seeding course of on Selection Day.
Toughest remaining recreation: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. Cut and paste from final week. This is not going to alter till that recreation is performed, as it will likely be one in every of the most impactful CFP video games of the season.
Why they might be right here: Alabama flirted with catastrophe towards Florida State, however after the Noles’ second delayed recreation of the season and one other break in the recreation due to lightning, the Tide in the end pulled away and left little question it was the higher staff. Alabama’s Week 2 win at Kentucky seems even higher this week after the Wildcats earned a press release highway win Saturday towards Texas A&M. That’s the solely staff Alabama has overwhelmed with a profitable document, although.
Why they might be greater: Alabama has scored no less than 45 factors in all three of its video games, and quarterback Keelon Russell continues to indicate enchancment every week. He accomplished 76.7% of his passes towards the Noles with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Need to know: With wins towards two Power 4 opponents, Alabama has an edge over some contenders that have not performed as troublesome of a schedule, however the Tide’s true place in the playoff pecking order will not be revealed till mid-October. It begins with the dwelling recreation towards Georgia adopted by a highway journey to Tennessee and the dwelling recreation towards Texas A&M. If Alabama can survive that stretch going into the first CFP rating, it will likely be on strong floor with a manageable November schedule.
Toughest remaining recreation: Oct. 10 vs. Georgia. The Tide could have homefield benefit towards its first ranked opponent of the season, however ESPN’s FPI offers Georgia a 53.6% likelihood to win.
Why they might be right here: The choice committee will contemplate the intangibles of taking part in on the highway in Kiffin’s return to Oxford, the hostile atmosphere, and the indisputable fact that LSU had an opportunity to tie the rating in the ultimate minute. It helped LSU slightly bit that Clemson discovered a option to earn a comeback win towards UNC and keep away from extra embarrassment, however the turnover from quarterback Sam Leavitt towards Ole Miss was his fourth in two video games.
Why they might be decrease: Some committee members may vote the Hoosiers greater as a result of they have not misplaced and proceed to look dominant. There are additionally nonetheless professional questions on the true worth of a win towards Clemson.
Need to know: The committee will honor the head-to-head outcome so long as the information stay comparable, however Ole Miss has one in every of the most troublesome remaining schedules in the nation. If the Rebels stumble a number of occasions and LSU rebounds to have fewer losses, Saturday’s outcome won’t be the ultimate willpower in the room.
Toughest remaining recreation: Nov. 14 vs. Texas. The Nov. 7 recreation towards Alabama is wanting tougher every week as the Tide enhance, but when LSU cannot win that one, the following week towards Texas will probably be much more vital.
Why they might be right here: The Hoosiers entered Week 3 with the No. 109 power of schedule in the nation, and a win towards 0-3 Western Kentucky is not going to alter that a lot. The committee notes wins towards FCS groups akin to Howard, and Indiana nonetheless would not have a win towards a Power 4 or ranked opponent. Indiana received off to a sluggish begin towards the Hilltoppers with a scoreless first quarter however finally pulled away as anticipated for one more lopsided win.
Why they might be greater: Regardless of who they’ve performed, the Hoosiers have put collectively full performances in dominant vogue, which is what the committee valued final season. Quarterback Josh Hoover has performed nicely, Indiana is amongst the nation’s leaders in whole effectivity, and North Texas is the solely staff that has scored on the IU protection.
Need to know: A Big Ten title recreation that options Indiana and Ohio State for the second straight season is the probably matchup, based on ESPN Analytics. The Big Ten champ will probably be a lock for the CFP, however the runner-up might be in hassle if it loses twice to the identical staff — particularly if it is by double digits. This occurred to BYU final 12 months after dropping twice to Big 12 champion Texas Tech.
Toughest remaining recreation: Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State. The Hoosiers get the Buckeyes at dwelling, however ESPN’s FPI offers Ohio State a 59.4% likelihood to win. It’s the solely recreation on the schedule that Indiana is not projected to win.
Why they might be right here: The Cougars confirmed no indicators of an upset at Colorado State on Saturday, profitable their first highway recreation of the season. Statistically, BYU has been higher than Texas Tech in each offensive and defensive effectivity, and the Cougars have had a greater scoring protection whereas averaging extra factors per recreation. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been extra correct than Texas Tech’s Will Hammond and has the next QBR. BYU’s protection has been measurably higher than USC’s up to now.
Why they might be decrease: The choice committee would doubtless regard Texas Tech’s win towards Houston as higher than BYU’s win towards Arizona.
Need to know: BYU and Texas Tech do not play one another throughout the common season, however they’re nonetheless the probably matchup in the Big 12 title recreation, based on ESPN Analytics. If BYU loses to Notre Dame, although, and it would not win the Big 12, it may have a troublesome time incomes a bid as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up as a result of its lone win towards a ranked opponent in that situation is perhaps towards Utah.
Toughest remaining recreation: Oct. 17 vs. Notre Dame. ESPN’s FPI offers the Irish a 75.7% likelihood to win.
Why they might be right here: USC earned its first highway win and first Big Ten win of the season at 0-3 Rutgers, which put up much more of a struggle than most likely anticipated. The Trojans’ protection has now allowed no less than 30 factors in three of 4 video games and has but to face a ranked opponent. The choice committee does contemplate elements akin to a five-hour flight throughout roughly 2,700 miles into Eastern time zone, and that USC by no means trailed. USC’s offense below quarterback Jayden Maiava has flourished, and the passing recreation has been complemented by King Miller and a dependable operating recreation.
Why they might be decrease: Committee members will query the USC protection, which gave up 5 performs of no less than 20 yards towards Rutgers, and has allowed its opponents to attain on 10 of 13 journeys inside the crimson zone. USC made a splash with the rent of former TCU coach Gary Patterson as its defensive coordinator, but when the Trojans do not repair some points rapidly, it should be a wrestle towards the Big Ten’s higher offenses. And traditionally, Lincoln Riley’s groups have made the playoff with nice offenses and suspect defenses — however have additionally been knocked out early with out the whole package deal.
Need to know: The Trojans are about to enter a season-defining stretch, with three straight video games towards Oregon, Washington and at Penn State — and that is not even the most troublesome a part of their schedule. But the subsequent three weeks will divulge to the committee how significantly it ought to take USC as a CFP contender.
Toughest remaining recreation: Oct. 10 at Penn State. This will probably be Penn State’s annual White Out recreation and USC’s first journey to Happy Valley since 1994. It’s one other cross-country journey for the Trojans, and Penn State is 11-7 when the full stadium wears white.
Why they might be right here: The Red Raiders earned their first Big 12 win towards a top-25 Houston staff, which helps separate them from bubble groups akin to Penn State and Tennessee. It was a gritty, down-to-the-wire win after Houston led 17-14 earlier than the half and quarterback Conner Weigman got here up brief on a two-point conversion in the ultimate minute. It was the first signature win of the season for Texas Tech after additionally beating Oregon State and FCS Abilene Christian.
Why they might be decrease: There’s not lots of separation but, notably on this space of undefeated groups the committee would contemplate. Penn State, Utah and Tennessee are all shut, and Louisville has a win towards a ranked SMU staff and a detailed loss to Ole Miss. All these groups have additionally been statistically higher in whole effectivity.
Need to know: If the playoff had been at present, the Red Raiders can be bumped out as the Big 12 runner-up to make room for the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 6 staff. No. 9 BYU is the projected Big 12 champ proper now.
Toughest remaining recreation: Nov. 21 at Baylor. The Bears had a troublesome 17-16 season-opening loss to Auburn and have not been examined a lot since. ESPN’s FPI initiatives Texas Tech will win every of its remaining video games, however the journey to Baylor is one in every of the decrease percentages at 65.3%.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding can be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ole Miss
No. 3 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round video games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 11 USC at No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Alabama
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 LSU
Quarterfinal video games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game introduced by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Miami winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 USC/No. 6 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 3 Ohio State
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Alabama winner vs. No. 2 Ole Miss
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 LSU winner vs. No. 1 Texas