2026 MLB Awards Watch: MVP, Cy Young and more for September

This has been a banner 12 months for elite beginning pitching within the National League, despite the fact that preseason Cy Young favourite Paul Skenes has had a down season.

By and massive, I think about any AXE ranking to be awards-worthy as soon as it reaches 130, which suggests the participant has carried out at a stage three customary deviations higher than league common. This customary often helps slender every race right down to a valuable few, however this season almost your complete NL Cy Young prime 10 is made up 130 AXEers, and this does not embrace Tarik Skubal, whose 136 total AXE is break up throughout each leagues after his deadline commerce from the Tigers to the Dodgers.

Despite the array of excellent pitching within the NL, the betting markets have more and more tilted towards younger Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski because the NL Cy Young favourite. With a 150.9 pitching AXE, Misiorowski is more than certified for the award. Yet for a lot of the season, although not all, he has lagged behind the Phillies’ Cristopher Sanchez in AXE.

Well, AXE is simply an index, a system to kind out performances so that every narrowed-down pool of gamers could be thought of more deeply. So let’s do this with NL Cy Young front-runners Misiorowski, Sanchez, Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jesus Luzardo, beginning with a desk of the metrics that feed AXE, together with some others.

Good luck, voters! With superior numbers far and wide, it’d merely come right down to this: Misiorowski has the “wow!” think about a giant manner, leads the NL with a sub-2.00 ERA and is the ace of the NL’s finest regular-season workforce. Though AXE can justifiably disagree, the case for Misiorowski could be very simple to make.

Here’s one other manner to take a look at it to make it even simpler. So far this season, I have not talked about something about recreation rating win-loss information, one technique by which I monitor the consistency of starters. The concept is straightforward: If you publish a better recreation rating than the opposing pitcher, per a modified model of the outdated Bill James system, you get a W. If you do not, you get an L. From there, I flip the document into one quantity utilizing James’ system for Fibonacci win rating, which seems to be at successful proportion and video games over .500.

By this standards, Misiorowski has a glowing recreation rating document of 24-4, which interprets to an MLB-best 40.57 Fibonacci win rating. I really like that 24-4 document, which harkens again to the precise win-loss information posted within the Nineteen Eighties by Dwight Gooden in 1985 and Roger Clemens a 12 months later. Misiorowski’s 2026 season is the 2020s equal to these memorable seasons by equally splashy phenoms from a unique period.

As for our different 2026 front-runners, their outcomes are: Sanchez (18-13, 15.45), Sale (17-9, 19.12), Yamamoto (17-10, 17.7) and Luzardo (21-8, 28.2).

Case closed?

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (146.9 AXE)

Next 9: 2. Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees (143.0); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (139.7); 4. Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays (136.3); 5. Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers (135.8); 6. Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians (132.6); 7. Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (131.7); 8. Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners (131.3); 9. Drew Rasmussen, Rays (128.6); 10. Ezequiel Duran, Texas Rangers (127.7)

Leader development: Alvarez’s second-half slowdown has opened the door for somebody to run him down on this race. No one has. In some ways, first-half Yordan undermined second-half Yordan by being so locked in. Since the All-Star break, he has seen 4.1% fewer pitches within the zone total and 5.8% fewer with males on base. Still, the Astros are in place to eke out an AL West crown and Alvarez has a whopping lead in each win likelihood added and championship likelihood added amongst MLB hitters. Houston can be properly out of the race with out Alvarez even when his slower second half means no Triple Crown.

Biggest mover: Though Caminero nonetheless lags behind by AXE, he has moved up the board a few spots and is working second to Alvarez within the betting markets. In explaining Caminero’s somewhat-disappointing AXE rank final time round, I identified that plenty of his homers had are available in low-leverage spots. Since then, he has hammered a few winners, together with within the recreation that clinched a playoff slot for the Rays. That’s the sort of factor that grabs the eye of voters.

Keep an eye fixed on: Schlitter has an uphill battle, but when I’d included pitchers within the MVP tables earlier, he would have been a fixture all season. Now he is incomes a bit buzz each in articles speculating on awards consideration and the betting markets. I do not assume he’ll win, however for a 2026 beginning pitching to get so prominently talked about, that tells you all it’s worthwhile to find out about how dynamic he has been.

National League

Front-runner: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (165.3 AXE)

Next 9: 2. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (145.9); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (143.7); 4. Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers (141.7); 5. Brice Turang, Brewers (139.7); 6. Jesus Luzardo, Phillies (139.3); 7. Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (136.3); 8. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (135.3); 9. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (133.8); 10. Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks (131.1)

Leader development: The 2026 NL MVP race is over, and now PCA is racing in opposition to historical past. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello identified that Crow-Armstrong has an unheard-of likelihood to steer baseball in each offensive and defensive runs above common, per FanGraphs. He’s three steals away from a 40-homer/40-steal season. And with 10.4 fWAR on the board, he has an outdoor shot of topping Rogers Hornsby’s 11.0 determine in 1929 for the Cubs’ workforce document. Not a nasty physique of labor.

Biggest mover: De La Cruz went on a current house run spree, and although he isn’t going to get a lot MVP help, he continues to get higher and place himself for a run on the award within the close to future. His numbers preserve getting higher whilst he stays a darling of the spotlight reels. My favourite De La Cruz play this season was a relay throw in opposition to the Dodgers final week during which he threw out Teoscar Hernandez on the plate. Hernandez was attempting to show a misplayed ball in heart area into an inside-the-park house run. De La Cruz drifted properly into the grass to take the throw from JJ Bleday, spun, and fired a 102 mph missile to catcher Jose Trevino to chop Hernandez down by a number of steps. The better part was as quickly as De La Cruz launched the throw, he began working off the sector, much like Larry Bird strolling off the courtroom on the finish of the 1988 3-point contest earlier than his final shot had even gone via the basket. By the time Trevino had slapped the tag on Hernandez, De La Cruz was about eight steps towards the Reds’ dugout. Awesome.

Keep an eye fixed on: I’ve touted Moreno for some down-ballot MVP help earlier than. With the Diamondbacks combating for their playoff lives, he has an ideal alternative to show some heads. Yeah, it is the tip of the poll, however what else do we’ve got? There’s no drama on the prime of it.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Cam Schlittler, Yankees (153.1 AXE)

Next 9: 2. Dylan Cease, Blue Jays (145.8); 3. Parker Messick, Guardians (140.0); 4. Drew Rasmussen, Rays (135.2); 5. Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels (132.6); 6. Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox (129.3); 7. Louis Varland, Blue Jays (127.6); 8. Nick Martinez, Rays (127.6); 9. Max Fried, Yankees (126.3); 10. Payton Tolle, Red Sox (125.8)

Leader development: When you mix dominance with consistency, you get the sort of season Schlittler has loved. It’s potential Cease might shut the hole if Schlittler blows up in his final couple of begins, however there isn’t any proof that this can occur. Schlittler had achieved front-runner standing by going 12-6 with a 2.09 ERA by the tip of August. Then he actually received good, going 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA for his first three September outings. Schlittler simply retains getting higher.

Biggest mover: Cease has remained excellent, however by way of successful a Cy Young, he simply picked the mistaken season to be this good. Cease does have a slight edge by my recreation rating document methodology, going 22-6 to this point for 33.3 Fibonacci win factors. Schlittler is 22-9, value 28.6 FWP. I do not assume it can matter.

Keep an eye fixed on: See Detmers in there, standing out on a nasty Angels workforce that has been out of the chase for months? Detmers was OK earlier than the All-Star break, going 3-6 for a 4.39 ERA, however he has gone beast mode since. Over 11 second-half begins, Detmers is 3-2 with a 1.65 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of almost seven. Teams that burned organizational sources to accumulate beginning pitching on the deadline may need appeared a bit nearer to what was taking place in Anaheim.

National League

Front-runner: Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (154.5 AXE)

Next 9: 2. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (150.9); 3. Jesus Luzardo, Phillies (148.6); 4. Chris Sale, Braves (144.1); 5. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (141.9); 6. Chase Burns, Reds (136.2); 7. Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (135.9); 8. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (134.0); 9. Mason Miller, San Diego Padres (133.0); 10. Michael King, Padres (127.5)

Leader development: You can most likely inform from the slant of the introduction that I favor Misiorowski for the award, even when my very own metric suggests it needs to be Sanchez. So a lot of Sanchez’s edge in AXE is fueled by a surprisingly large lead in bWAR that I do not assume is an actual factor. Of course, it isn’t the one bottom-line metric during which Sanchez leads, so perhaps we’re all ignoring actuality. Either manner, Sanchez’s stinker in opposition to the struggling Nationals this week within the midst of the Phillies’ playoff push did no favors for his Cy Young case.

Biggest mover: Luzardo gained 6.9 factors of AXE since our final Awards Watch, second in baseball amongst beginning pitchers behind rejuvenated Rays righty Freddy Peralta. Luzardo turned up with a bum shoulder that kills the remainder of his common season and places his postseason availability unsure. If there was any likelihood of Luzardo muscling his manner into the NL Cy Young race, the damage nullified it.

Keep an eye fixed on: With the Padres locked in a decent wild-card race, they might want to lean on Miller more than ever. Not solely will that gas his WAR rely, however it can give him plenty of probabilities to rev up what’s already the highest win likelihood added and championship likelihood added figures amongst NL pitchers. Miller will not win the Cy Young, or the MVP for that matter, however it is going to be fascinating to see the place his last AXE lands, as a result of 133 is already an outlandish quantity for a aid pitcher.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers (135.8 AXE)

Next 9: 2. Parker Messick, Guardians (132.6); 3. Tristan Peters, Chicago White Sox (125.5); 4. Payton Tolle, Red Sox (120.4); 5. Chase DeLauter, Guardians (117.6); 6. Carter Jensen, Royals (116.0); 7. Travis Bazzana, Guardians (114.8); 8. Walbert Urena, Angels (114.7); 9. Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays (114.7); 10. Victor Mesa Jr., Rays (114.4)

Leader development: McGonigle is not precisely flying underneath the radar at this level, however he most likely hasn’t acquired sufficient consideration for simply how epic his rookie season has been. For one factor, he leads AL hitters in bWAR and is third within the FanGraphs model. Not simply rookies — all hitters. According to Baseball Reference, so long as McGonigle’s 6.7 bWAR holds regular or goes up even more, he’ll set the Tigers’ rookie document for hitters set by Donie Bush (6.5). Bush is not round to congratulate McGonigle, although. He set the document 117 years in the past.

Biggest mover: Tolle has develop into an actual drive within the Red Sox rotation. Since the start of August, he has gone 3-0 with a 2.44 ERA and 2.37 FIP over eight begins, seven of which Boston has received. He has had one begin with 14 strikeouts and no walks, and one other walkless outing with 12 whiffs. And that mustache is elegant.

Keep an eye fixed on: Jensen has been constructing gradual momentum all 12 months. He is not going to win this award, however he has seized the mantle of catcher of the current and future for a company that also has Salvador Perez within the majors and Blake Mitchell within the minors. This has already been the perfect rookie season by a catcher in Royals historical past, and you may argue that it is among the many 10 better of any Ok.C. catcher. It’s solely going to get higher from right here.

National League

Front-runner: JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals (127.5 AXE)

Next 9: 2. Carson Benge, New York Mets (117.4); 3. TJ Rumfield, Colorado Rockies (117.1); 4. Logan Henderson, Brewers (116.0); 5. Didier Fuentes, Braves (115.8); 6. Nolan McLean, Mets (115.2); 7. Sal Stewart, Reds (113.2); 8. Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals (112.7); 9. A.J. Ewing, Mets (110.8); 10. Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco Giants (109.5)

Leader development: Wetherholt retains a large AXE lead, however his edge has eroded steadily due to a second-half droop on the plate adopted by a late-August damage that stored him on the IL till this week. The betting markets now favor Stewart on this race, and it is unclear {that a} large end by Wetherholt would change that actuality.

Biggest mover: Henderson toils in Misiorowski’s shadow, however he has risen to No. 2 starter standing for the Brewers, taking the place of struggling lefty Kyle Harrison. Henderson has gone 7-2 with a 1.95 ERA over 10 begins throughout the second half. For his profession, together with three begins in 2025, he is 13-3 with a 2.22 ERA over 21 outings. Prorated to a per-162-games foundation, all of it begins to look ridiculous: Henderson tasks to 21-5, with 214 strikeouts in 183 innings. He’s actually good.

Keep an eye fixed on: Since the Braves determine to be taking part in some high-profile video games in October, this is perhaps a very good time acquaint your self with Fuentes. Just 21, Fuentes was developed as a starter earlier than reaching the majors early this season and becoming a member of the Braves’ bullpen. He has been a weapon, with a 7-2 document, three saves and a 2.34 ERA. Among Atlanta’s relievers, solely nearer Raisel Iglesias has a better common leverage index. Fuentes would possibly get bumped down a slot when Robert Suarez comes of the IL, however he is nonetheless going to be featured in some large moments within the playoffs.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Kevin Cash, Rays (113.5 EARL)

Next 4: 2. Will Venable, White Sox (113.0); 3. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (103.3); 4. Aaron Boone, Yankees (101.5); 5. John Schneider, Blue Jays (100.4)

Overview: The White Sox’s current struggles have dropped Venable behind Cash, who has received two earlier AL Manager of the Year awards throughout his 12 years with the Rays. No workforce has exceeded expectation more than Chicago, however the Rays have definitely outperformed their preseason forecast and most likely will enter the playoffs because the AL’s prime seed. If the White Sox slip out of the playoff image altogether, Venable would possibly find yourself as a runner-up in a class he appeared a cinch to win a month in the past.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (109.7 EARL)

Next 4: 2. Clayton McCullough, Miami Marlins (107.6); 3. Terry Francona, Reds (104.7); 4. Craig Stammen, Padres (104.2); 5. Don Mattingly, Phillies (102.4)

Overview: Murphy ought to win his third straight award, and if he would not, you work it is going to be partially due to voter fatigue. But the Brewers aren’t solely the NL’s finest workforce by document, and have once more raced previous middling preseason forecasts, they’ve finished it by turning over a number of key roster spots from final season. Milwaukee has labored two rookie place gamers into common roles — Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara— which is sort of wonderful when you think about how properly a rookie has to play to assist a 100-win workforce. Breaking in rookies is and at all times has been a key a part of a supervisor’s job. I might see Mattingly getting some love primarily based on the place the Phillies had been when he took over, however Murphy seems to be just like the clear reply right here.