NBA Playoffs odds, picks: Longshot offers more value than SGA for Finals MVP
As we head towards the convention finals within the 2026 NBA playoffs, we’re operating wanting strong value positions within the NBA futures betting market. However, we have got one viable longshot within the Finals MVP odds who might present an attention-grabbing sweat.
Two weeks in the past on this area, we recommended taking the last feasible price on the Oklahoma City Thunder to repeat as NBA champions. They have been priced within the -115 to -130 amid their first-round sweep of the Phoenix Suns and now seem poised to do the identical to the Los Angeles Lakers behind a 3-0 lead heading into Game 4 on Monday evening. Oklahoma City is now priced round -170 or steeper to win the Finals and -280 to win the Western Conference at most retailers, a cost-prohibitive tag that requires observers to seek out different avenues for backing the Thunder.
The Thunder look like on a collision course to the NBA Finals with the New York Knickswho’re priced at -165 to win the Eastern Conference following their sweep on the Philadelphia 76ers within the convention semifinals. They are priced at +525 to win the Finals, with the San Antonio Spurs (+400) and the Detroit Pistons (+2000) additionally in competition.
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In the Finals MVP race, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the odds-on favourite at a worth of round -170. This is mainly the identical worth because the Thunder to win the Finals and mirrors a dynamic we frequently see within the superbowl odds because the quarterback of the favored workforce typically has odds just like that of his workforce on the cash line to win the sport.
Gilgeous-Alexander received Finals MVP final season and is more likely to win his second consecutive regular-season MVP when the outcomes are introduced subsequent week. Thus far within the playoffs, he’s averaging 28.3 factors, 7.0 assists and three.3 rebounds on 51.6% capturing. Maintaining these numbers amid a second title run would seemingly web him one other MVP award however we’re going to chase a lottery ticket on Chet Holmgrenthe versatile 7-footer who has confirmed integral to the workforce’s success.
Late final week, Holmgren may very well be discovered with Finals MVP odds of round +5500 however you could have already seen that quantity shrink to +3500, suggesting some basketball observers who’re mining for longshot value have already made this play. We made a small play at each numbers and they’re on board with recommending a dart throw on the present worth earlier than it inevitably shrinks.
Holmgren is at present averaging profession playoff highs of 19.1 factors, 9.1 rebounds and 59.3% capturing from the sector. In 4 profession video games towards the Knicks, the Thunder’s projected Finals opponent, he has posted numbers of 17.8 factors and 6.8 rebounds whereas capturing 52.9% from the sector. His manufacturing may be even more necessary towards a Knicks membership that simply held the 76ers to 46% from the sector and 31.2% from 3-point vary.
What’s more, we have seen current examples during which the NBA Finals MVP went to the second banana on the championship workforce. In 2024, Jayson Tatum of the Celtics was priced round -110 all through a lot of the playoffs however his sidekick Jaylen Brown (+700) took the award behind his regular play because the Celtics received the collection 4-1 towards the Dallas Mavericks.
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