March Madness odds, predictions, picks: Best bets for Friday’s first-round games, including Kansas-Cal Baptist
The 2026 NCAA tournament started on Tuesday night time with the First Four matchups in Dayton, Ohio, and continues for the subsequent a number of weeks. With an estimated $3.3 billion wagered on March Madness (males’s and girls’s tournaments mixed), tourney time is among the greatest betting occasions of the yr.
Be certain to take a look at our March Madness betting guidewhich comprises all of our bracket and betting content material.
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The NCAA match is all about quantity, and now we have 16 extra first-round video games to check — and probably wager on — for Friday. Our school basketball handicappers — Corbie Craig, Matt Jacob, Matt Russell and Frank Schwab — are right here to offer their favourite wagers on each sport.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. This file shall be up to date as extra finest bets are available in.
East area
(13) Cal Baptist vs. (4) Kansas (-14.5, 136.5)
Craig: Cal Baptist has been one of the crucial entertaining mid-majors this season, largely due to star level guard Dominique Daniels Jr., who has posted some video-game numbers all yr, including a 47-point explosion in convention play. The Lancers’ offense usually runs fully by their skill to create off the dribble. The downside on this matchup is the bodily hole.
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Kansas can throw a number of lengthy, switchable guards at Daniels Jr., beginning with Melvin Council Jr., which makes life a lot more durable within the pick-and-roll sport that Cal Baptist depends on. When you mix that with Kansas’ measurement benefit throughout the remainder of the ground, it turns into tough to see the Lancers producing environment friendly appears to be like persistently.
After a disappointing exhibiting within the Big 12 match, Kansas additionally seems like a workforce in want of a reset. First-round match video games usually develop into assertion spots for energy packages trying to regain rhythm, and this units up as a possible get-right alternative. If Daniels Jr. will get bottled up even reasonably, Cal Baptist’s offense does not have many secondary paths. With Kansas motivated and possessing the defensive personnel to neutralize the Lancers’ engine, I’m snug laying the factors right here.
Pick: Kansas -14.5
(15) Furman v. (2) UConn (-20.5, 136.5)
UConn regarded like a title contender for the primary half of the season, so it is laborious to determine what occurred when it misplaced 4 of its final 11, including unhealthy defeats to Creighton and Marquette and a 20-point loss to St. John’s within the Big East title sport. Furman is not nice, nevertheless it has uncommon measurement for a small-conference workforce (fifth within the nation in common peak according to KenPom). That helps. Furman does not shoot 3s effectively, which is not nice when taking a giant underdog, however we’re simply hoping the Paladins can preserve it inside 20.
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South area
(9) Iowa (-2.5, 129.5) vs. (8) Clemson
Schwab: Iowa actually wanted to see somebody aside from a Big Ten opponent. The Hawkeyes have been a really disappointing 3-7 down the stretch. But it is a workforce that was thirty first nationally on offense and thirtieth defensively at KenPom.comwith a powerful level guard with match expertise in Bennett Stirtz. Clemson was unhealthy down the stretch too, ending 4-6. That’s what you get with groups this far down within the seeding generally. I’ll belief Iowa to hit some pictures and get a win.
Bet: Iowa -2.5
West area
(9) Utah State (-1.5, 146.5) vs. (8) Villanova
Jacob: The Mountain West Conference was hardly a juggernaut this season, as evidenced by the truth that the league obtained only one NCAA match bid: automated qualifier Utah State.
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The Aggies, although, are legit — and that’s the reason the choice committee rewarded the Mountain West common season and match champions with a No. 9 seed. And why the betting market has Utah State as a slight favourite over a No. 8 seed.
Utah State did drop its remaining three common season highway video games — including ugly losses at San Diego State (89-72) and UNLV (92-65). But the Aggies avenged all three defeats within the convention match, crushing UNLV (80-60), Nevada (79-66) and San Diego State (73-62).
[Schwab’s picks by region: East | South | Midwest | West]
Admittedly, Utah State’s nonconference schedule was missing. Its two most notable opponents have been VCU (80-77 neutral-site win) and South Florida (74-61 highway loss). That apart, the Aggies are prime 30 in each the KenPom (thirtieth) and NCAA Net (twenty sixth) rankings; Villanova is thirty third and thirty sixth respectively.
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The Wildcats had a powerful first season below new head coach Kevin Willard. But apart from a 76-66 time beyond regulation win over Wisconsin on a impartial court docket again in December, Villanova does not have a signature victory. It additionally does not have the firepower to hold with a well-rounded Utah State squad that averages 82.5 PPG and makes practically 50% of its pictures.
Bet: Utah State -1.5
(15) Queens vs. (2) Purdue (-25.5, 163.5)
Schwab: This line opened at -22.5 or -23.5 and moved towards the favourite. As we have seen with different matchups with the highest groups, early bettors clearly consider it is going to be a really chalky match once more. Purdue has probably the most environment friendly offense in school basketball and Queens is 322nd in protection, by way of KenPom. This one may get ugly.
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Bet: Purdue -25.5
(10) Missouri vs. (7) Miami (FL) (-2.5, 147.5)
Jacob: I’m not precisely certain what Missouri did to warrant an at-large berth to the Big Dance.
By my rely, the Tigers had 5 spectacular victories. Two have been back-to-back upsets of defending nationwide champion and present No. 1 seed Florida (76-74 at residence) and Kentucky (73-68 on the highway). Missouri later eked out upsets over Texas A&M (86-85 on the highway), Vanderbilt (81-80 at residence) and Tennessee (73-69 at residence).
On the flip aspect, the Tigers misplaced twice to Arkansas and received spanked at Oklahoma (80-64) after narrowly getting previous the Sooners at residence (88-87 in time beyond regulation). They have been additionally fully stuffed by Kansas (80-60) and Illinois (91-48) on impartial courts, in addition to Alabama (90-64 highway) and Texas (85-68 residence).
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Additionally, Missouri went one-and-done within the SEC match, as Kentucky received revenge with a 78-72 win. That capped a 13-game stretch through which the Tigers’ opponents averaged 79.9 PPG, with 10 of these foes tallying at the least 78 factors. Translation: Missouri’s protection has been an abomination of late.
Meanwhile, Miami went 9-3 to shut the common season — and the three losses have been by margins of three, 3 and 1 level. The Hurricanes then upset Louisville within the first spherical of the ACC match earlier than bowing out towards Virginia.
True, Miami misplaced 82-68 to Florida on a impartial court docket six weeks earlier than Missouri (barely) upset the Gators. But have a look at the outcomes of two different frequent opponents: The Canes thumped Ole Miss 75-66 and Notre Dame 81-69, each on the highway. Mizzou traveled to each colleges and fell 76-69 at Ole Miss and 76-71 at Notre Dame.
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Bet: Miami (FL) -2.5
Midwest area
(10) Santa Clara vs. (7) Kentucky (-3.5, 160.5)
Schwab: All season, Kentucky has needed to hear about having a $22 million roster, which is the best mark in school basketball. The Wildcats have been disappointing all season, including a 4-6 end. The SEC is hard, however Kentucky deserved its No. 7 seed. Santa Clara has expertise, too, and a recognizable coach in former NC State lead man Herb Sendek. Casual bettors may see Kentucky, one of many greatest title manufacturers within the sport, and take the Wildcats over the third-best workforce within the WCC. Santa Clara is totally able to successful this sport straight up.
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Bet: Santa Clara +3.5
(14) Wright State v. (3) Virginia (-18.5, 145.5)
Schwab: Virginia confirmed in a aggressive 74-70 loss towards Duke on the ACC match that it might grasp with anybody. In 2026, the Cavaliers are 18-3 with two losses to Duke and one to North Carolina when it was Caleb Wilson. Wright State is not notably spectacular in any approach, and the hole right here appears huge.
Bet: Virginia -18.5
(15) Tennessee State vs. (2) Iowa State (-24.5, 149.5)
Schwab: Inflation is going on in NCAA match betting. There have been solely two 20-point favorites amongst No. 2 seeds over the past 4 tournaments, via Matt Eisenberg’s tournament guide. This yr, all 4 No. 2 seeds are at the least 20-point favorites.
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The dominance of the best teams in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament the previous couple of years was going to have an effect on spreads, and No. 2 seeds are 9-3 ATS the final three tournaments. Maybe you purchase that the hole between the highest and backside of the bracket is changing into fully unsurmountable, however there’s a tax to be paid to take the groups on the highest two strains this yr. Some of those underdogs need to cowl the inflated strains, proper?
Bet: Tennessee State +24.5
(13) Hofstra v. (4) Alabama (-11.5, 158.5)
Jacob: It’s tough for bettors to belief Alabama within the NCAA match — notably within the early going. Going again to 2012, the varsity is 12-7 straight-up and 9-9-1 ATS within the Big Dance — including 5-1 SU however solely 2-4 ATS within the first spherical.
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The purpose the Crimson Tide are untrustworthy? They deal with protection prefer it’s optionally available. In the final 4 NCAA tournaments, first-round opponents Robert Morris (81 factors), College of Charleston (96 factors), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (75 factors) and Notre Dame (78 factors) have scored at will towards Alabama.
Staying true to their model, the Tide have been all offense, little protection once more this season: They led the nation in scoring (91.7 factors per sport) and ranked 352nd out of 361 groups in factors allowed (83.5 per sport).
So it appears there are solely two logical approaches to attacking Alabama’s sport towards Hofstra on Friday: Take the factors or move. I’m doing neither, just because I do not consider Hofstra can exploit the Tide’s evident weak spot.
The Pride common 75.6 PPG and shoot simply 44.2% from the sphere. The counterargument, after all, is that Hofstra’s defensive numbers are sturdy — it ranks nineteenth nationally in factors allowed (66.1) and fourth in field-goal protection (38.7%). Problem is, the Pride have not come near seeing an offense as deadly as Alabama’s.
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What’s extra, Hofstra’s adjusted defensive effectivity score per KenPom (ninety fifth) is way worse than Alabama’s (67th).
As the saying goes, types make fights. And on this case, I see Alabama’s fashion overwhelming Hofstra.
Bet: Alabama -12.5
(11) Miami (Ohio) vs. (6) Tennessee (-10.5, 148.5)
Russel: Karma’s a quick-exit for SMU, which could have been less-than-truthful with the choice committee concerning the well being and availability of BJ Edwards, because the chair, Keith Gill, mentioned the expectation of his return “to 100% health” was a vital factor to the Mustangs’ inclusion within the NCAA Tournament.
SMU’s finest perimeter defender and jack-of-all-trades of their 3-guard lineup was in avenue garments, watching as Miami took a file variety of threes in a First Four sport, making 16 of them. Without Edwards, SMU wasn’t on the extent of even their modest 91st-ranked defensive effectivity (by way of KenPom), which might nonetheless have been one of the best protection the Redhawks have confronted all season, with the earlier honor going to Bowling Green.
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Tennessee’s protection is having a down yr.
Instead of their annual top-five score, the Vols are “only” fifteenth.
Without an opponent to debate, Tennessee’s fallen below the radar since Selection Sunday, however a 6-seed certain appears low for a workforce sixteenth general in KenPom, however Rick Barnes’ workforce shall be ready to run the Redhawks off the road with out fouling, and certain out of the gymnasium with out a lot bother.
Bet: Tennessee -10.5
