NBA playoffs 2026: Ranking every team after conference semifinal Game 1s

all 4 NBA conference semifinals are underway after a turbulent first spherical that featured three Game 7s, two large upsets and a few key accidents.

With eight groups left competing for the Larry O’Brien Trophy, it is an ideal alternative to take inventory from the sphere because it at present stands and rank these contenders on their chance to return away with the {hardware} when the postseason is all stated and performed.

Here’s our take, with the case for and towards every of the eight groups because the second spherical is now one recreation in throughout the board.

(Note: 2026 NBA title odds courtesy ESPN Analytics.)

First spherical: Defeated PHX 4-0
Semis conf.: Lead LAL 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 48.8%

The case for:

How about championship expertise, depth for days, a ferocious protection, the possible two-time MVP and home-court benefit all through the remainder of the playoffs? OKC is the best-positioned team because the Golden State Warriors in 2017-18 to chase a repeat title. The Thunder can play huge, with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein up entrance. They can play small, with a menacing fleet of guards wreaking havoc in half-court protection and in transition once they pressure turnovers. And they’ve a coach in Mark Daigneault who is not afraid to experiment with lineups all through a playoff sequence.

The case towards:

That 7-foot-4 game-plan wrecker Victor Wembanyama and his teammates down Interstate 35. San Antonio received 4 of 5 conferences with OKC this season, showcasing a size and athleticism that can provide the Thunder issues. But if OKC can survive a San Antonio matchup — the potential of a heavyweight West finals took a small hit when the Spurs dropped Game 1 on Monday towards the Timberwolves — nothing exterior of catastrophic harm luck ought to stand in the way in which of a Thunder repeat.

First spherical: Defeated BY 4-1
Semis conf.: Trail MIN 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 13.5%

The case for:

Who says the younger Spurs need to fall on their faces earlier than incomes success? Wembanyama did simply that and bounced again after a recreation absence, returning with the identical terrifying pressure he confirmed all through all the season. The Trail Blazers tried physicality on Wembanyama within the first spherical, however he shook it off and averaged 4 blocks regardless of lacking most of Game 2 and all of Game 3 due to a concussion. And with Stephen Castle boasting 43.8% capturing from 3 as an rising third scorer, why cannot the Spurs skip a number of steps? Yes, short-handed Minnesota shocked many to steal Monday’s Game 1, however it can take extra to maneuver San Antonio from this spot.

The case towards:

The champs are the champs till somebody knocks them off, and if Thunder guards Jalen Williams is wholesome, throw this season’s earlier Spurs-Thunder showdowns out the window. But can San Antonio’s capturing maintain up? Minnesota’s protection suffocated the Denver Nuggets to the tune of 30% from the 3-point line within the first spherical, and the Timberwolves held the Spurs to only 28% (10-for-36) from 3 on Monday, with Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox combining for an 0-for-12 evening. Oklahoma City allowed simply 34% within the first spherical towards the Phoenix Suns. The Spurs do not rely a lot on the 3-point shot, nevertheless it has turn out to be an equalizer that has helped their resurgence all through the season.

First spherical: Defeated ATL 4-2
Semis conf.: Lead PHI 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 19.3%

The case for:

The Knicks performed as cohesively as they’ve all season within the ultimate three wins to eradicate the Atlanta Hawks. And though defending the way in which they did in Game 6 is unsustainable, the sequence opener towards Philadelphia confirmed it might carry over.

Offensively, if OG Anunoby can sustain this torrid scoring — he has gone 23-for-30 from the sphere over his previous three video games — and Karl-Anthony Towns is really unlocked, New York can be within the driver’s seat among the many East’s ultimate 4 groups.

The case towards:

Matchups. Could Philadelphia, which adjusted effectively towards Boston after a Game 1 rout, turn out to be the Knicks’ kryptonite? Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey I might catch fireplace and shift New York’s protection. If nothing else, the Knicks had been constructed to beat Boston in these playoffs. That main roadblock was eliminated, however Philadelphia is a little bit of a wild card, particularly the dynamic Maxey-VJ Edgecombe backcourt. New York will not be capable to cover Jalen Brunson on protection all sequence lengthy or in a possible East finals showdown with Detroit.

First spherical: Defeated ENT 4-3
Semis conf.: Lead CLE 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 17.2%

The case for:

Including the Pistons, six of the highest eight groups in defensive ranking are within the conference semifinals, and solely Oklahoma City is best than Detroit. Cade Cunningham discovering his All-NBA recreation within the Orlando sequence exhibits he can course of shortly, regulate and embrace the second. Ausar Thompson can also be evolving right into a generational defender throughout these playoffs. What if Orlando was the hardest bodily matchup Detroit will face? And if this model of Tobias Harris — the veteran ahead averaged 21.6 factors within the first spherical, greater than eight higher than in the course of the common season — sticks round for May and June, Detroit might bully its means by the following six weeks.

The case towards:

The Pistons bought right here, nevertheless it’s troublesome to neglect the primary 4 video games towards Orlando. Shooting below 30% from 3, with sharpshooter Duncan Robinson Being unable to create area for high quality seems and being focused on protection, it was not a reasonably sight. Having Cunningham because the one confirmed scorer might catch as much as them, particularly if middle Jalen Duren‘s offense would not bounce again after averaging simply 10.6 factors within the first spherical. Cunningham, in the meantime, continues to be recovering from a punctured lung. So a lot it’s a must to align for Detroit to get to the Finals. The slightest slip might spell doom.

First spherical: Defeated DEN 4-2
Semis conf.: Lead SA 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.4%

The case for:

Minnesota’s exceptional victory over Denver in Game 6 proves that the Timberwolves are extremely resilient. Rudy Gobert is coming off maybe the perfect sequence of his Hall of Fame profession, slowing down three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. If there’s anybody who can provide Wembanyama a battle within the paint, it is Gobert, a four-time Defensive Player of the Year. Anthony Edwardsin the meantime, performed clutch minutes in Game 1 after a stunningly quick return from a hyperextended knee he sustained final spherical. The Wolves even have the expertise of back-to-back conference finals appearances the previous two years. Their second-round opponent, San Antonio, is definitely feeling that drawback after dropping Game 1 at residence.

The case towards:

The Wolves, regardless of stealing Game 1, can be ranked increased if they’d fewer accidents. Edwards returned in Game 1, however first-round standout Ayo Dosunmu remained sidelined by a calf pressure and Donte DiVincenzo is out for the postseason due to a torn proper Achilles. Although Minnesota received Game 1 behind some unimaginable play down the stretch, preserving that up over a whole sequence is a tall order towards Wembanyama and the Spurs’ deep, athletic guard rotation.

First spherical: Defeated BOS 4-3
Semis conf.: Trail NYK 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.1%

The case for:

The 76ers are the final word variance team. When totally wholesome and operational — not counting Monday’s Game 1 drubbing by New York — Philly has had an extremely excessive ceiling. The pick-and-roll mixture of Maxey and Embiid is a handful for any team to cease; Paul George seems like if he has returned to his All-Star type; Edgecombe continues to show he is not afraid of massive moments; and Kelly Oubre Jr.. and Quentin Grimes have mixed to provide Philadelphia 48 high quality minutes per recreation on the wing. There aren’t many groups with that stage of on-paper expertise and flexibility. The 76ers even have Nick Nurse, the one championship-winning coach remaining within the area moreover OKC’s Daigneault.

The case towards:

Where to begin? The most evident is the tenuous well being of Philadelphia’s stars. Can Embiid and George make it by the following six weeks wholesome? History would present that is a dicey proposition. That’s very true for Embiid, who’s lower than a month faraway from an emergency appendectomy, the newest well being problem to impression a postseason run for the previous MVP.

And typically in the course of the team’s previous few postseasons, the underside has fallen out in huge conditions. Game 7 in Boston practically grew to become the newest instance, when an 18-point, late-third-quarter lead practically evaporated.

play

Turnovers the distinction in Cavs-Pistons Game 1

Zach Kram discusses how essential the Cavaliers’ turnovers had been within the Pistons’ 111-101 win in Game 1.

First spherical: Defeated TOR 4-3
Semis conf.: Trail DET 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.4%

The case for:

Cleveland’s roster was constructed for playoff success. in James Harden and Donovan Mitchellthe Cavs have an explosive backcourt able to large video games. in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allenthe Cavs have two versatile huge males who can deal with a wide range of defensive assignments and supply sufficient offense to enrich the guards. And Sam Merrill, Max Strus and Dean Wade can area the court docket, with Wade slotting in as a stout defender towards the opponent’s larger wings.

The case towards:

As the Cavs wheezed by a seven-game triumph towards the short-handed Toronto Raptors — Brandon Ingram sat out the ultimate two-plus video games and Immanuel Quickley did not play in any respect — Harden and Mitchell struggled loads because the sequence progressed. Now, Detroit presents a stage of physicality that Cleveland has struggled with. The Cavs have a conference championship ceiling, however proper now it is arduous to consider they will attain it. That stays the case after a tough efficiency in Game 1 by which Cleveland had an opportunity to steal the sport after trailing for all of it, solely to fail within the closing minutes after scoring the rating with 5 minutes left.

First spherical: Defeated HOU 4-2
Semis conf.: Trail OKC 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.3%

The case for:

LeBron James you might have defied every expectation at this stage of his profession, so why could not he conquer this mountain? Or at the very least maintain the Lakers upright lengthy sufficient for Austin Reaves to recuperate totally and for Luka Doncic to inch nearer to a return from his hamstring harm? They had been the harder team towards the Houston Rockets and executed late in video games to proceed their seasonlong effectivity within the clutch. If the first-round 3-point capturing of Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard and Rui Hachimura (all 40% or higher) carries over, it provides the Lakers’ drivers loads of area. It would additionally give any LeBron-led playoff team some hope.

The case towards:

They’re enjoying the “Monstars” — and never the rebooted model. The Thunder are rested and presumably are wholesome with Williams on the mend. Asking James to repeat his first-round efficiency towards a Thunder team that hardly ever beats itself appears a bit unattainable. The Thunder have dominated the matchups towards the Lakers, and even when a miracle occurs, the Spurs are ready. Common sense says LA’s run ends right here.