What We’re Learning About Four Key Cardinals Prospects in Memphis

Today I wish to verify in on a number of of Memphis Redbird hitters by the Statcast lens. Fortunately for prospect hounds, the International League is totally wired up with pitch and hit monitoring machines so there’s a wealth of information accessible for the prospects on the highest degree. The solely different minor league staff with this knowledge supplied publicly is the Single-A Palm Beach Cardinals, so there’s a little bit of a spot as prospects advance by the center two ranges. The Memphis squad has performed 18 video games (as of Friday), so whereas the pattern dimension is comparatively small, we’re beginning to mixture some actual knowledge to interrupt down. Today, I’ll deal with hitters solely, and with apologies to Cesar Prieto and Colton Ledbetter, the gamers I really feel are the 4 greatest hitting prospects in Memphis: Joshua Baez, Leo Bernal, Jimmy Crooks, and Blaze Jordan.

Jordan’s 2025 was a combined bag as he torched Double-A to the tune of a 167 wRC+ for 44 video games in the Red Sox system. He was promoted to Triple-A at first of June and held his personal till being flipped by Steven Matz on the commerce deadline. The narrative behind his breakout season was short-circuited by a dreadful stint in Memphis that led to him being left off the 40-man roster and unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. Jordan has lengthy been thought of a plus energy bat, however has struggled with plate self-discipline and elevating the ball, so how has he carried out to this point in 2026?
Jordan is off to a scalding begin with a 179 wRC+ by 58 plate appearances in Memphis and there are actually some adjustments to his underlying metrics.

Jordan continues to be swinging at every thing and making good contact. The massive leap has come in its exit velocity numbers. His max exit velocity of 113.3 MPH would rank twenty fifth in the MLB simply forward of Jo Adell. His common exit velocity leap of 6 MPH takes him from being nicely under common to nicely above-average. Despite a excessive chase%, Jordan has made an above-average quantity of contact because of an unimaginable 94.9% contact price on pitches contained in the strike zone.

Jordan continues to have an interesting profile. If you had informed me he was off to a tremendous begin, I’d have assumed he had cleaned up his plate self-discipline or began hitting extra fly balls… Instead, he has doubled down on the 2 issues he’s nice at, hitting the ball exhausting and making a ton of contact. It would not seem to be a profile that may play on the main league degree the place he might be exploited by pitchers with higher command, however it’s exhausting to argue with the outcomes to this point. Jordan looks like the right candidate to get some at-bats for the Cardinals later this summer time to provide him a way of the changes wanted to hit main league pitching and an offseason to work on bettering his strategy. Despite the failings, it has been a really encouraging begin to the 12 months, and Jordan’s inventory is on the rise.

Crooks had a stable, if unspectacular, 2025 season in Memphis. His contact charges backed up sufficient to create some doubt as as to whether he might get his stable energy. So far, 2026 has been a combined bag.

While Crooks is off to a fantastic begin from a outcomes perspective having already hit 4 residence runs and carrying a 156 wRC+, his contact and chase charges have each moved in the improper route. It is just too early to fret, however you’ll really feel a bit extra excited in regards to the quick begin if there have been underlying adjustments to help the improved offense. Crooks’ elevated 33.3% strikeout price is pushed by 9 strikeouts in 15 at-bats towards southpaws. He has a barely larger exhausting hit price and barrel%, however regardless of the gaudy hitting line, Crooks has been usually the identical hitter he was in 2025.

I would love to see Crooks enhance his chase price transferring ahead, which ought to elevate his borderline unplayable contact price. Only ten main leaguers ran contact charges in the 60s final season and none as little as 65%. There continues to be loads of volatility in the info this early, so we’re undoubtedly not in the panic zone but. The common to barely above-average energy is already there, and Crooks has a knack for making high-quality contact when he does join. Despite his lack of velocity, ZiPS initiatives him to run above-average BABIPs as the muse of his offensive profile.

Unlike Jordan and Crooks, Bernal didn’t have prior Triple-A expertise, so there may be a lot much less knowledge in his baseline to check to.

Bernal is having a bit bother chasing too usually, however is making contact at an above-average price. While his common and ninetieth percentile exit velocities will not be thrilling, his most exit velocity is above-average, which is a good signal, particularly in such a small pattern dimension. Despite the underwhelming .236/.295/.327 slash line, Bernal’s begin from an underlying metrics perspective stands out as the most encouraging. Unlike Crooks, he’s sustaining a stable plate strategy and get in touch with price in his first style of Triple-A as a 22-year-old. FanGraphs has rated him as having common uncooked energy (50 grade), however his max exit velocity of 112 MPH hints that there could possibly be extra in the tank. Switch hitters and catchers have the fame of taking longer to develop offensively, and Bernal is each of those. He has loads of time to solidify himself as a core piece of the long run, however you wish to see extra constant energy as he settles into the Triple-A surroundings.

Baez was the participant I used to be most excited to get knowledge on coming into the 12 months following his epic breakout in 2025. The massive query we wish to get answered is how his contact charges would maintain as he confronted extra superior pitching.

Baez is surviving, however he’s displaying why the Cardinals made the correct choice in letting him begin the season in Triple-A regardless of the torrid Spring Training. His exit velocity numbers are simply common to this point and his contact price has backed up considerably from the common price he carried in 2025. After operating a 59% contact price in massive league spring coaching, the continued low contact price in Memphis not less than warrants an eyebrow increase. We are nonetheless early sufficient to brush this off as an early-season adjustment interval, however with Baez’s historical past, it’s completely one thing to regulate to see if he can proper the ship. Triple-A pitchers have attacked Baez with over 40% breaking balls up to now (MLB common is roughly 30%) and Baez has solely managed a 56% contact price. He is doing most of his harm on fastballs with an 80% contact price, and each of his residence runs have come on heaters.

I feel Baez could also be urgent a bit coming off of his electrical spring coaching. He has a fame for good swing choices and may be a bit too aggressive in the early going. I wish to see if a extra disciplined strategy might unlock the ability he displayed in 2025.

All issues thought of, my opinion of those 4 has not modified in a significant manner based mostly on this small pattern dimension. I’m inspired by Jordan and Bernal’s begins and wish to see some self-discipline improved from Baez and Crooks. All 4 might influence the Cardinals in 2026 and their efficiency has direct implications for the roster going ahead. That issues not only for improvement, however for a way the Cardinals strategy roster choices this season. Bernal and Crooks performing nicely might push certainly one of Pedro Pages or Yohel Pozo out the door. If Baez appears to be like prepared, he might get a glance in middle discipline or make Lars Nootbaar commerce extra enticing even when the Cardinals are in the playoff hunt this summer time. Blaze Jordan continues to be getting reps at first base and third base the place the Cardinals lack right-handed energy. Whether they make it to St. Louis this 12 months or not, the progress, or lack thereof, of this quartet may have a cloth influence on the form of the roster transferring ahead.