Pros and cons of every path Maple Leafs could take with No. 1 pick
In the times main as much as the 2026 draft lottery, a storm appeared to be brewing across the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The sting of a disappointing 2025-26 marketing campaign was nonetheless recent. Questions concerning the future of cornerstone franchise Austin Matthews swirled. And the hockey world appeared blended on the hiring of new common supervisor John Chayka. But then got here a flip of luck, a dramatic shift in fortune — the first-overall pick within the 2026 draft fell into the group’s lap.
The Maple Leafs will choose No. 1 for the primary time since 2016, the final time they missed the post-season. They’ll draft first for simply the third time within the membership’s historical past, the final two turns at No. 1 bringing in franchise legends Matthews and Wendel Clark.
This time round, although, the choice about who to pick for that prime spot is trickier.
Two dynamic offensive abilities proceed to play for prime billing amongst scouts’ rankings, whereas a quantity of elite defensemen — who the Maple Leafs arguably want far more — sit simply exterior the highest three.
Making the choice much more consequential is the state of the Maple Leafs franchise at this present second — after lacking the post-season for the primary time in a decade, the membership heads into 2026-27 with a recent slate. A brand new GM leads the entrance workplace, a brand new head coach will take over the bench, and some notable roster surgical procedure appears all however sure. Making the precise name on June 26 will probably be key in serving to set the Leafs up for a season of redemption, and for Chayka and Co. starting their first summer season in Toronto on the precise foot.
So, what ought to the Maple Leafs do? Toronto primarily has 5 choices on the desk: draft one of the 2 standout prospects within the 2026 class (Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg), draft another person at No. 1, commerce all the way down to draft a lower-ranked prospect that might higher fill an organizational want (a defenseman), or commerce the No. 1 pick away in change for a present NHLer who could assist them proper now.
With a month to go earlier than draft day arrives, let’s take a have a look at the professionals and cons of every of these choices:
Route 1: Draft Gavin McKenna first-overall
Pros: The professionals listed below are clear — drafting McKenna appears the most secure choice for Toronto. The Canadian child has been the speak of the 2026 draft for years, and for the common fan, there’s sufficient identify recognition there that the choice can be celebrated by the Leafs devoted. More importantly, McKenna appears on observe to develop into an unimaginable expertise within the huge leagues. After a dominant ultimate yr within the WHL that noticed him rack up 129 factors in 56 video games for Medicine Hat, {the teenager} changed into a productive freshman yr with Penn State, amassing 51 factors in 35 video games on the faculty stage — 33 of these factors got here in his ultimate 18 video games as he caught fireplace down the stretch. There’s no query that the Whitehorse, Yukon product can be an impactful addition for the Leafs, notably in changing some of Mitch Marner’s misplaced dynamism on Matthews’ wing.
Cons: The potential of the draft’s different prime canine looms giant. While McKenna stands out as the most secure pick for the Leafs, there’s an opportunity he is not truly the most effective participant on this pool, as scouts seem break up on whether or not McKenna or Stenberg is the true prime expertise of the 2026 class (extra on that at a second). In any draft yr that includes two elite prospects battling for the No. 1 spot, the chance is fairly easy — if Toronto drafts McKenna, sees him battle in any manner, and watches Stenberg go on to develop into an all-world expertise within the NHL, that what-if will cling over the Maple Leafs for the subsequent decade.
Route 2: Draft Ivar Stenberg first-overall
Pros: He won’t be as acquainted a reputation for the common Leafs fan, however Stenberg’s promise leaves the Leafs brass with a critical conundrum. The winger has begun to edge previous McKenna in pre-draft rankings across the hockey world. Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala — previously the director of novice scouting for the Florida Panthers — has the younger Swede (*1*) heading into the draft. He pointed to Stenberg’s versatility and defensive play as a key issue, calling the Frolunda HC product a extra full participant. But do not sleep on Stenberg’s offensive ability — taking part in in opposition to males within the Swedish league, {the teenager} put up the third-most factors of any draft-eligible participant in SHL historical past. The solely gamers who produced extra? Daniel and Henrik Sedin. The central objective for Toronto have to be strolling away with the most effective participant they will in June, and Stenberg seems like he could match the invoice.
Cons: Much just like the McKenna route, all of it merely comes all the way down to who winds up being the most effective participant down the road. Given the stakes right here and the state of the franchises that could choose them, each younger stars determine to be linked as they begin their NHL careers. If Toronto takes a swing and drafts Stenberg, and then watches McKenna emerge as an all-world expertise — not solely within the NHL however on the worldwide stage, in a Team Canada sweater — it will sting for years.
Route 3: Draft another person first general
Pros: It’s robust to see many professionals right here, to be trustworthy. Although the Leafs could have extra urgent organizational wants elsewhere within the lineup, they little doubt could use some extra firepower after a season that noticed them end within the center of the pack offensively. Drafting McKenna or Stenberg appears the clearest path to upgrading in that regard on draft day. There is a promising heart within the combine in Caleb Malhotra — ranked the third-best prospect on this class by Bukala — and the Leafs have seen their depth down the center worn skinny over the previous couple of years. Still, taking Malhotra, or anybody else, above McKenna or Stenberg at No. 1 would appear a wild gamble.
Cons: The draw back right here is the very actual potential of Toronto strolling away, having left the most effective and second-best prospects on the board in pursuit of filling a selected want. Go again via the historical past of the draft, notably the highest finish of it, and the most effective route has typically been the only one — choose the most effective participant obtainable, determine all the pieces else later. Going in opposition to the grain and drafting another person first-overall would probably imply watching one of McKenna or Stenberg fall to Vancouver at No. 3 — little doubt a troublesome potential capsule for the Leafs devoted to swallow, except Toronto’s pick vastly exceeds expectations.
Route 4: Trade down and draft a defenseman
Pros: There’s an intriguing case to be made right here. Amid the hype, strain and expectation that comes with being granted the No. 1 pick, it appears absurd to not merely go the standard route and choose the participant Toronto believes sits on the prime of this draft class. But zoom out and have a look at this whole Maple Leafs period, the totally different iterations of their roster and the alternative ways wherein they’ve come up quick, and one factor has lengthy appeared to be the important thing lacking piece in Toronto: a real, blue-chip, all-world defenseman.
They do not come round typically, and barring a uncommon bit of chaos that permits one to develop into obtainable on the commerce market (see: Hughes, Quinn), these star rearguards are solely discovered within the draft. Toronto has a uncommon probability so as to add that franchise-altering piece to the group now. And there’s some real blue-line expertise on the board — right-handed defenders Keaton Verhoeff and Chase Reid, and left-handed defender Carson Carels, all projected to be top-pairing stars. If the Maple Leafs have an opportunity to commerce down a number of spots and add that high-upside blue-liner, plus the return that might come with giving up the highest spot, they could stroll away with the sort of back-end game-changer that is eluded them for many years, and another property with which to maintain constructing.
Cons: Even so, there’s a danger of overthinking right here, of attempting to engineer an ideal consequence fairly than simply taking the chance in entrance of them. Chayka has been burned on the draft for attempting one thing related earlier than — in 2019, the then-Arizona Coyotes GM traded the No. 14 pick and a second-rounder to Philly for the No. 11 pick. Chayka drafted defender Victor Soderstrom Eleventh-overall, touting him as an important addition to Arizona’s long-term core. The younger Swede by no means discovered his footing within the NHL. Philly, in the meantime, used that 14th-overall pick to draft Cam York.
This can be a really totally different state of affairs — Chayka can be buying and selling down and including property, fairly than attempting to maneuver up, and the defensive prospects he can be selecting from appear extra of a certain factor. Still, in the event that they swung such a deal and it did not pan out as anticipated, relinquishing the prospect so as to add McKenna or Stenberg could wind up changing into the failure defining this entrance workplace’s legacy.
Route 5: Trade the No. 1 pick for an immediate-impact NHLer
Pros: This can be the nuclear choice. It all comes all the way down to how Toronto views its organizational timeline. After a disappointing 2025-26, essentially the most level-headed strategy can be drafting a blue-chip prospect first general and attempting to methodically rebuild the remaining of their roster forward of a 2026-27 marketing campaign that brings no ensures. That mentioned, the Maple Leafs stay below strain to persuade Matthews to remain in Toronto past the ultimate two years of his contract.
If Chayka and Co. are motivated to show the membership round sooner fairly than later, by attempting to place collectively a lineup that may make some actual noise as quickly as subsequent season, would possibly there be a deal available for a present NHLer who could make a extra rapid impression? It would rely closely on who precisely can be on the opposite finish of such a commerce, and the checklist of names that might make it worthwhile is a brief one.
Cons: Given the place the Leafs are at proper now, sacrificing the long-term potential of McKenna or Stenberg to roll the cube on short-term success can be an unimaginable danger. Toronto’s been gifted a golden alternative so as to add some much-needed youth to the group — and it actually was a present, given the Maple Leafs had simply an 8.5 per cent probability to win the draft lottery.
The greater image is vital right here. After how final season ended, there is a sense that this period of Leafs hockey is perhaps winding to a detailed. To commerce away the No. 1 pick and hand over the prospect to begin turning the web page, to justify giving up a decade of efficiency from the likes of McKenna or Stenberg to attempt to squeeze a little bit bit extra out of this chapter, the Maple Leafs would want to hit an absolute house run on the commerce market.
Barring a deal that might herald a real all-world celebrity and a season of critical post-season noise, this transfer would have the potential of ageing terribly as McKenna and Stenberg discover their footing within the league, and wanting worse with every passing season of their careers.
