Raptors’ loss to Kings causes a royal pain with postseason scenarios

I have to take subject with these calling the Toronto Raptors’ loss to the tanktastic Sacramento Kings on Wednesday their worst defeat of the 12 months.

The Raptors misplaced by 21 in Washington in December. In the identical month, they scored 81 factors in Brooklyn. At least Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes, the Raptors’ two All-Stars, each performed in these video games. Ingram did not play towards the Kings on Wednesday.

Alas, the later you get into the season, the extra you perceive how a lot any given win or loss might influence your playoff probabilities. Before the Raptors suffered back-to-back losses to the Pistons and Kings, that they had about an 80 % likelihood of ending fifth or sixth within the Eastern Conference and avoiding the Play-In Tournament, in accordance to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities. Ahead of Thursday’s video games, these probabilities had been down to 52.8 %. Most of the drop was brought on by dropping a recreation that the projection programs had all however given them, with outdated mates Precious Achiuwa and DeMar DeRozan giving them a actual April Fools pranking. Mean.

With six video games left, the Raptors are in seventh place within the East heading into Friday’s video games. Two of these are at dwelling towards the Miami Heat; the Raptors gained twice in Miami earlier within the season, when the Heat had been much less wholesome than they’re now. The Raptors even have video games towards the Boston Celtics (Sunday) and the New York Knicks (April 10), towards whom they’re a mixed 0-7 with a minus–113 level differential — common margin of defeat, 16.1 factors. (Perhaps the Knicks could have nothing to play for by the penultimate recreation of the season, however they will even be staring 5 – 6 off days within the face. We do not know the way they will deal with the remaining vs. rust query, ought to it come up.)

And then the Raptors play Memphis this Friday and Brooklyn to finish the season on April 12. They could not presumably lose these!

Anyway, with six video games to go, this looks as if a good time to go over the numerous prospects that face the Raptors (42-34).

Tiebreakers

Practically talking, the Raptors will win any two-team tiebreaker besides towards the 76ers. The Raptors break up the season sequence towards Philadelphia (42-34), however the 76ers would win on the power of their superior divisional file.

The Raptors beat the Hawks (44-33) and Magic (40-36) of their sequence this season. They tied the Hornets (41-36) and will nonetheless tie the Heat (40-37) if Miami beats the Raptors twice subsequent week, however the Raptors could have the superior convention file over each, which is the following tiebreaker.

Things get extra difficult within the occasion of multi-team ties. Until the Raptors misplaced on Wednesday, a three-way tie for the fifth, sixth and seventh spots between the Raptors, Sixers and Hawks was trying like a real looking risk. Atlanta would win the Southeast Division in that situation, so they’d win the tiebreaker and end fifth, whereas the 76ers would end sixth due to their benefit over the Raptors. Divisions: They nonetheless matter, for some cause.

If a division champion is just not in a multi-team tie, the head-to-head file between the entire groups is the primary tiebreaker. Division file if the groups are in the identical division (not related for the Raptors) is subsequent, adopted by convention file after which file towards playoff groups in the identical convention.

Without stepping into each situation, the Raptors are in fairly fine condition there, though they nonetheless have 5 convention video games left.

Avoiding the Play-In (ending fifth or sixth)

The groups ending fifth and sixth will doubtless play the Knicks and the Cavaliers, though the Knicks might nonetheless catch the Celtics to end second. New York entered Friday’s play 2 1/2 video games behind Boston, but when the Knicks gained the ultimate recreation between these two groups, they’d doubtless win the tiebreaker by way of division file.

Assuming the Hawks and 76ers stay the 2 most related groups on this race, the Raptors’ almost certainly path to a top-six seed is ending with a higher file than Philadelphia of their closing six video games. Alternatively, if the Raptors end with the identical file because the Hawks however not the 76ers, they’d end forward of Atlanta. The Raptors would have to win two extra video games than the Hawks the remainder of the best way to catch them, in order that situation is much less doubtless.

Remaining schedules

Philadelphia: Minnesota, Detroit (again to again), at San Antonio, at Houston, at Indiana (again to again), Milwaukee

Atlanta: at Brooklyn, New York, at Cleveland, Cleveland, at Miami

Neither group has a simple schedule, however the Raptors going 3-3 means the 76ers would have to go 2-4 or worse, or Atlanta would have to end 1-4 or worse. In different phrases, the Raptors will most likely have to go 4-2 to keep away from the Play-In — not that it might assure something.

Play-In seeding (7-10 seeds)

The two groups that advance to the playoffs from the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament will doubtless face Detroit and Boston, who’re doubtless to end first and second, respectively. The Celtics will most likely get the winner of the 7-8 recreation, leaving the opposite Play-In group for the Pistons.

The 76ers’ schedule means they might simply fall again into Play-In territory. They might go 2-4, and thus end 44-38. It could be tough for the Hawks to sink that low, however not unattainable.

The 44-win mark is essential, although. If the Raptors end above it, they doubtless won’t fall under the seventh seed, which, at worst, would give them two dwelling video games to win one to make the playoffs. Worse than that, and the Raptors have a actual likelihood at ending eighth and taking part in on the street within the 7-8 recreation, or — yikes — falling into the 9-10 recreation.

As talked about, the Raptors will win any two-team tiebreaker with any Southeast Division group. Multi-team ties might deliver chaos, as Orlando swept its season sequence with Miami 5-0. The Hornets beat the Magic 3-1, whereas the Heat beat the Hornets 3-1.

As for the 76ers, they beat the Hornets 2-1, misplaced to the Heat 2-1 and beat Orlando 2-1.

Remaining schedules

Charlotte: Indiana (again to again), at Minnesota, at Boston, Detroit, at New York

Orlando: at Dallas, at New Orleans, Detroit (again to again), Minnesota, at Chicago, at Boston

Miami: Washington, at Toronto, at Toronto, at Washington (again to again), Atlanta

Chaotic prospects

There are solely three remaining matchups that includes two of the Mid-6. Miami is in all three of them, with two in Toronto and one towards the Hawks. The almost certainly file to trigger a four-plus group tie: 44-38. The almost certainly means to get that: The Heat win each video games in Toronto after which lose to the Hawks.

In that situation, there may very well be a five-way tie. If that occurs, the tie could be damaged with the head-to-head file between the 5 groups. That would consequence within the following end.

6. Philadelphia (7-6)
7. Toronto (8-7)
8. Orlando (8-7)
9. Charlotte (7-8)
10. Miami (7-9)

In the case of a four-way tie, excluding Philadelphia:

7. Orlando (7-4)
8. Toronto (6-5)
9. Charlotte (6-6)
10. Miami (5-8)

In nearly all of the believable three-way ties, the Raptors would end second among the many three groups.

There are many different potential scenarios, however they’d contain some main upsets, like a group with nothing left to play for defeating a group that wanted to win. And that will by no means occur.