10 storylines that will shape rest of 2026 MLB season
The hoopla of the MLB trade deadline has handed. The canine days of August have set in.
With solely six groups basically eradicated from the playoffs — we’re being beneficiant right here to the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, however even dismissing them would go away us with 21 groups within the playoff chase — it will be a busy remaining quarter of the season.
Let’s verify in on 10 storylines to look at.
The race for the very best general file
The huge, dangerous, unbeatable Los Angeles Dodgers with the gazillion-dollar payroll immediately have fallen to 3rd within the National League and fourth within the general standings.
Not a giant deal, proper? After all, the Dodgers needed to play within the wild-card sequence final yr and beat the Reds. They did not have home-field benefit towards the Philadelphia Phillies or Milwaukee Brewers and beat them. They went again to Toronto for Games 6 and seven of the World Series, needing to win each video games on the street, and did simply that.
Still … ending behind the Brewers and Atlanta Braves would hardly be a really perfect situation for the Dodgers, not when the No. 6 seed is perhaps the Phillies, who might run out Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo in a three-game sequence, or perhaps the San Diego Padres, who might trip their bullpen in a brief sequence.
Other than the dangerous nature of the wild-card sequence, although, perhaps home-field benefit is not such a giant deal anyway: Since 2000, dwelling groups are 12-11 in Game 7s and 16-20 in Game 5s.
So perhaps the query for the Dodgers is not a lot the place they will end, however how they will end. They added Tarik Skubal to entrance the rotation, however nonetheless have some questions in key positions. Before successful their previous two, that they had misplaced eight of 9. Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers are thirteenth in OPS and 14th in runs per sport. Prior to the break, they ranked first in OPS and third in runs per sport. Their pitching was third in ERA earlier than the break and twenty third since. It’s not a priority but, however the Dodgers have been sleepwalking for almost a month now.
Meanwhile, the Brewers maintain successful, 22-14 because the starting of July, though with only a plus-5 run differential in that span. They’re 4-0 in extra-inning video games over that stretch (reliever Aaron Ashby picked up his thirteenth win on Saturday) and 10-3 in Jacob Misiorowski‘s final 13 begins. The concern stays their lack of energy — final within the majors in dwelling runs this season — however they’re nonetheless fifth in runs per sport. The Braves have additionally righted the ship after a shedding month in June. The offense has matched Milwaukee’s and, additionally just like the Brewers, they’ve a powerful late-game bullpen.
Ten vital video games within the general standings will happen from Aug. 13 via Aug. 27, when the Dodgers host the Brewers for 4 video games, the Brewers host the Braves for 3 after which the Braves host the Dodgers for 3.
The National League MVP race
Through June, Shohei Ohtani appeared to have already locked up his fifth MVP award and fourth in a row. Then he stopped pitching as a result of of a knee situation and Pete Crow-Armstrong took off like an Apollo rocket. He hit .381 with 11 dwelling runs in June. He hit .278 with an OPS over 1.000 in July. He’s nonetheless purple scorching in August. Crow-Armstrong entered the week with 7.5 bWAR, which put him on tempo for 10.2. Here’s the listing of heart fielders with 10-WAR seasons:
Willie Mays (6)
Mickey Mantle (3)
Ty Cobb (3)
Aaron Judge (2)
Mike Trout (2)
Tris Speaker (2)
These are all inner-circle Hall of Famers or future inner-circle Hall of Famers. Note who is not on this listing: Ken Griffey Jr. (profession excessive of 9.7), Joe DiMaggio, Duke Snider, Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones. Hank Aaron certified two seasons as a middle fielder and did not get there. Fred Lynn and Willie McGee did not get there of their MVP seasons.
Indeed, Crow-Armstrong ought to be considered because the chief proper now, with an edge over Ohtani in each bWAR (7.5 to six.3) and fWAR (8.0 to six.4). The race might be nearer than the variations in WAR point out, particularly since there’s nonetheless time for Ohtani to get again on the mound.
Applying the fundamental runs-saved numbers in contrast with a mean participant used at Baseball Reference (and leaving out the positional changes), we get:
The NL hasn’t had a detailed two-man race for MVP honors since 2019 (Cody Bellinger over Christian Yelich), however this appears to be like like an important one.
Alvarez has been one of probably the most feared hitters within the majors since his debut in 2019 and has all the time been succesful of a season like this. But there was all the time anyone higher — often Aaron Judge.
Not this yr. Alvarez is the clear favourite for American League MVP, though Dillon Dingler and Junior Caminero will have their supporters. It’s Alvarez’s chase for the Triple Crown that everybody will be watching. Since the reside ball period started in 1920, solely 10 gamers have received their league’s Triple Crown, for a complete of 12 instances — the final being Miguel Cabrera in 2012, the one participant to win it since 1967.
The Houston Astros DH has a cushty lead in probably the most tough class, getting into Wednesday with a 15-point benefit over Chandler Simpson of the Tampa Bay Rays in batting common. This can change extra quickly than individuals understand although. Entering Saturday, Alvarez had a 30-point lead over Simpson, however he went 0-for-8 in two video games whereas Simpson went 6-for-9. Alvarez is tied with Caminero in dwelling runs and has a seven-RBI lead over Dingler. Both classes are definitely in play.
Here’s what makes Alvarez’s season much more spectacular: He’s hitting .389/.579/.806 with runners in scoring place — driving in 51 runs in 72 at-bats, since he has walked 37 instances in these conditions (together with 20 intentional walks). Only two different gamers since division play started in 1969 have completed with a 1.400 OPS with runners in scoring place: Barry Bonds (thrice, together with 2004 when he had 111 walks and three strikeouts with RISP) and Mark McGwire in 1996.
How low can Jacob Misiorowski go?
By low, we’re going together with his ERA, which stands at 1.76 after permitting three runs in six innings Sunday, when he turned the second-fastest pitcher in phrases of innings to succeed in 200 strikeouts in a season (behind Spencer Strider in 2023).
Misiorowski’s ERA was 1.34 after a dominant one-hit, 15-strikeout efficiency June 12 and nonetheless beneath 1.50 in early July. Since 1920, solely Bob Gibson has posted an ERA beneath 1.50 in at the least 162 innings. The Miz has been extra hittable of late, with a 2.54 ERA since that full sport (together with 5 unearned runs), with 9 dwelling runs allowed in 46 innings. Then there’s the query of whether or not he’ll even get to the 162 innings wanted to qualify for the ERA title. It’s going to be shut, relying on how laborious the Brewers push him down the stretch.
Among different data for beginning pitchers that he is chasing: He has allowed a .147 common, 20 factors decrease than Pedro Martinez’s .167 mark in 2000, and he has allowed a .456 OPS, simply off Ed Walsh’s .455 in a useless ball yr of 1910 and a tad higher than Gibson’s .469 in 1968.
Even if the ERA has climbed a bit, Misiorowski is on observe for a season to recollect.
On June 24, the Red Sox had been stumbling alongside at 32-46. They had already fired supervisor Alex Cora. Only the Colorado Rockies had a worse file. Then every little thing rotated — remarkably, with each Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony on the injured listing.
Since then, they’ve gone 32-9, together with 21-4 in July, one of the very best months in franchise historical past. They’ve scored the third-most runs within the majors since June 25 and allowed the fewest runs per sport.
They’re successful with a patchwork center infield of Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler and Nick Sogard, a testomony to Craig Breslow’s depth constructing. (Monasterio and Seigler came visiting from Milwaukee within the Kyle Harrison commerce with Caleb Durbin, and whereas Harrison has been wonderful, the Red Sox have wanted each gamers.) Oh, Durbin by the best way, after a horrible begin, has matched former Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman in OPS and WAR.
Breslow swung huge on the deadline, buying Adley Rutschman for 3 of the group’s prime prospects though the three-time All-Star was nonetheless on the injured listing. Lefty reliever Erik Miller came visiting from the San Francisco Giants for Marcelo Mayer. Rutschman and Miller (and Curtis Mead, one other deadline acquisition) are all controllable past 2026, however this was a particular “all-in” sequence of strikes.
The solely drawback: The Red Sox stay eight video games behind the Rays within the AL East, because the Rays received their seventh in a row Monday. All this and Boston would possibly find yourself within the wild-card sequence anyway.
If the White Sox can go from 121 losses in 2024 to successful the AL Central, it might be an unimaginable sports activities story. Nobody anticipated this. The White Sox had been twenty eighth in our preseason power rankings, with a projected file of 61-101, one win higher than final yr’s 60-102 mark. FanGraphs had the White Sox ending final within the division at 67-95 with a lower than 1% probability of successful it.
Yet right here they’re. The Cleveland Guardians are fading. The Detroit Tigers traded away Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. The Minnesota Twins simply do not seem pretty much as good because the White Sox (minus-34 run differential versus plus-36 for the White Sox). Now, the White Sox are hardly operating away with this. They’re round .500 because the starting of June. The offense is twenty fourth in OPS because the starting of July. Luis Castillo would possibly or won’t be the reply for the rotation.
In 1991, the Braves and Twins each went from final place in 1990 to first place after which performed one of the best World Series of all time. The 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays went 66-96, modified their identify to the Rays and went 97-65, reaching the World Series. Other groups have additionally gone from final to first, however no group as dangerous because the White Sox has finished one thing like this because the 101-loss Boston Braves of 1912 received the 1914 World Series.
The NL wild-card race
Essentially 4 groups are preventing for 3 spots — the Phillies, Padres, Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubs have a stable lead as the highest wild card (and nonetheless harbor hopes of chasing down the Brewers; they nonetheless have seven video games towards Milwaukee), so perhaps it is three groups for 2 spots, with the Pirates, Nationals, Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals one successful streak away from getting again into the race.
The group to look at right here is the Padres, as a result of the offense — after rating final within the majors in runs for a lot of the season — has lastly began to hit. Since the start of July, the Padres are sixth in OPS and ninth in runs per sport. All three of their core gamers — Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill — have performed higher, whereas Ty France continues as one of the larger surprises of the season.
The Phillies are going through lots of strain as an ageing group attempting to drag out a World Series to cap an period of thrilling baseball in Philly. If they make the playoffs, no person needs to face them, however you marvel if Dave Dombrowski’s incapability to commerce for a beginning pitcher on the deadline will hang-out him.
The Diamondbacks? Yeah, that is laborious to determine, with Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo all having worse seasons than final yr. They do not hit many dwelling runs. The rotation has been iffy. Heck, they even simply DFA’d nearer Paul Sewald. Their solely transfer on the deadline was a low-impact acquisition in Lars Nootbaar. FanGraphs nonetheless sees the Cubs (99% playoff odds) and Phillies (76%) because the clear favorites out of the wild-card groups, with the Diamondbacks and Padres near even.
Mason Miller and the best aid season ever?
Speaking of the Padres, it helps to have Miller closing down the ninth inning. He’s 4-1 with 30 saves in 31 possibilities — his one blown save got here when he entered within the eighth inning with the bases loaded and one out and allowed a game-tying hit (he acquired the win anyway) — and a 0.89 ERA with a ridiculous 16.5 K’s per 9. Batters are hitting .140 off him with two extra-base hits (each doubles). Is it the very best aid season ever? Maybe not, but it surely’s within the operating, and he ought to choose up loads of down-ballot MVP votes.
The AL Cy Young race
So many of the preseason favorites have battled accidents — Crochet, Skubal, Hunter Brown, Max Fried — that when Cam Schlittler roared out of the gate firing unhittable fastballs one after one other, he jumped to the highest of leaderboard, unchallenged. It’s an extended season, nonetheless, and whereas Schlittler has remained spectacular, main the AL in ERA (2.21), begins (25) and innings (146.2), Dylan Cease is now proper there, tied with Schlittler in WAR with 4.9, a 2.40 ERA and a league-leading 191 strikeouts.
The huge distinction: Schlittler has made three extra begins and pitched about 15 innings greater than Cease. His effectivity has allowed him to go six-plus innings in 15 of his 25 begins. Cease has gone six innings in 11 of his 22 begins. Cease has the new hand, with scoreless outings in 4 of his previous seven begins.
Who wins the AL Worst?
No group has ever received a division title with a shedding file. It nearly occurred within the strike-shortened season of 1994, when the Texas Rangers had been main the AL West at 52-62 when the strike hit in early August. It would possibly occur within the AL West in 2026, with the Astros and Rangers hovering round .500 and the Seattle Mariners dropping like Wile E. Coyote off a cliff.
It most likely will not occur. The Astros, for instance, are already finished taking part in the Rangers however have seven video games towards the A’s, 5 towards the Mariners and three towards the Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals. Do effectively in these video games and the Astros ought to end over .500. Oh, in addition they maintain the tiebreaker towards the Rangers, successful the season sequence 9-4.
