Pay CJ Stroud? NFL execs from around the league weigh in

HOUSTON — CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr.. did not simply arrive in Houston — they reshaped the franchise in a single day.

After deciding on Stroud second total in 2023, the Texans made an aggressive gamble to commerce as much as No. 3 to land Anderson, doubling down on a daring, franchise-altering imaginative and prescient.

Three years later, Houston sat at a crossroads — with each getting into the offseason extension-eligible.

After a historic rookie season, it appeared like Stroud was set to reset the quarterback market, however as an alternative, it is Anderson who outlined the marketplace for defensive ends, agreeing to a three-year, $150 million deal — making him the highest-paid non-QB in NFL historical past.

That left Stroud at the heart of one in all the largest questions in the NFL: Should the Texans pay him?

ESPN polled league executives and others around the NFL about what they might do in the event that they had been in Houston’s sneakers, and the responses ranged from “They gotta pay him” to “Wait.” Years 2 and three did not replicate related manufacturing for Stroud, along with his newest playoff performances leaving a lot to be desired after seven turnovers in two video games.

As of late April, Houston and Stroud had but to have interaction in severe extension talks, in accordance with league sources. So which means is Houston leaning? Coach DeMeco Ryans is not tipping his hand. Despite buzz around the annual league conferences in March about what the Texans ought to do, Houston’s coach saved a agency poker face in Phoenix — declining to supply any perception into Stroud’s contract.

Ryans mentioned he would not “discuss contracts publicly.” But league executives really feel like paying him is inevitable as a result of life with a gifted quarterback is at all times higher than being in quarterback purgatory.

“I think he’s plenty talented. I just think just running a more efficient offense would justify the payday,” an AFC government advised ESPN. “I think everyone [I talk to] feels like you gotta pay him. Low bar for the position.

“It additionally may prevent cash should you prolong him 1777833277because the market at all times goes up.”

THE CONSENSUS SURROUNDING Stroud is that he is a talented quarterback. He threw for 4,108 yards in 2023 (third most by a rookie in NFL history) and 23 touchdowns — to five interceptions — and finished ninth in MVP voting. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and to the Pro Bowl.

In his three years, Stroud has compiled 28 regular-season wins (seventh most during that span), a 54.9 QBR (20th), 10,876 passing yards (ninth), 25 interceptions (12th fewest among quarterbacks with at least 30 starts) and 62 touchdown passes (tied for 14th). And in the playoffs, he has three wins (tied for fourth), 1,438 passing yards (fourth) and six touchdown passes (eighth).

So it’s fair based on Stroud’s accomplishments that he deserved an extension, but at what price?

“Offer him one thing like prime 8-12 [QB] cash,” an NFC executive said. “I’d attempt to give him a three-year extension at like $42-45 million per yr now. Or plan to franchise him out like [Dallas Cowboys QB] Dak Prescott in 2020.”

The eighth-highest annual wage for a quarterback belongs to the Philadelphia Eagles‘ Jalen Hurts ($51 million) and the twelfth belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs‘ Patrick Mahomes ($45 million).

The NFC executive believes Stroud and his management team — led by agent David Mulugheta of Athletes First — would reject the 8-12 deal. The executive said he would be willing to increase the offer to strike a deal, and if that failed, just prepare to use the franchise tag if needed in 2028.

Texans owner Cal McNair would love to have his cornerstone pieces like Stroud and Anderson in Houston for the foreseeable future. But he won’t meddle in the football discussion, he’ll just sign the checks.

“We’ll let DeMeco and [general manager Nick Caserio] make the soccer selections there, however they’re thrilling, actually good younger gamers,” McNair said at the annual league meetings. “We’ll hope to have them around for an extended, very long time.”

STROUD HAS PLAYED well in playoff openers, but last January was different. He struggled with ball security in both of the Texans’ playoff games, and in the divisional round loss to the New England Patriotsthings were so alarming (four interceptions) that Ryans was asked postgame about whether he considered benching Stroud. Ryans said he hadn’t, despite Davis Mills going 3-0 in Stroud’s concussion-related absence earlier this season.

The questions haven’t stopped. Caserio was asked during the combine in late February about the possibility of trading his quarterback, but he scoffed at the notion, calling it “moronic.”

“We are not trading the guy. He’s our quarterback,” Caserio said. “He’s going to be taking part in quarterback for the Houston Texans in 2026.”

The Texans picked up the fifth-year options for Stroud and Anderson on April 8, with Caserio calling the resolution a “no-brainer.”

“I’m so excited to have him around right here in the spring,” Caserio said, “and I’m excited to maintain shifting ahead.”

But how far into the future that will be remains the question.

Despite realizing that Stroud is a “playoff quarterback” that may win you video games, a second AFC government thinks Houston ought to wait on extending him.

“It hasn’t been perfect,” the second AFC government advised ESPN. “That defense has carried a lot, $25 million isn’t crazy for the [fifth-year] option, so you keep your leverage, get another year of info on durability, production, mental toughness, all of it.”

Outside of the playoff struggles, Stroud is coming off a season the place he threw for 3,041 yards (nineteenth) and 19 touchdowns (twenty second), and he had eight interceptions and a QBR of 61.7 (eleventh) in 14 video games. Houston went 9-4 in video games Stroud began and completed.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks marched to a Super Bowl title in February with a QB in Sam Darnoldwho completed nineteenth in QBR (55.6). Seattle marked Darnold’s fourth crew in 4 straight seasons, together with reviving his profession with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024 to earn a three-year, $100.5 million take care of the Seahawks.

Instead of paying Darnold, the Vikings struggled at QB, with J.J. McCarthy‘s growth not being the place they might have appreciated in Year 2 — prompting Minnesota to signal Kyle Murray this offseason.

Darnold was one in all a number of QB redemption tales that may make groups cautious about giving up on a gifted, younger quarterback.

“They should do whatever they can to avoid ending up looking like Minnesota,” the similar NFC government mentioned.

ANOTHER AFC EXECUTIVE Stroud believes he has to show he can carry a crew earlier than receiving the extension due to the way it will affect the Texans’ roster financially.

“This is about whether you’re convinced he’s a long-term top-tier QB worth 22% of the cap,” the third AFC government advised ESPN. “The smart play is to pick up the fifth-year option, invest heavily in the offensive line and stabilize the run game so you’re evaluating it in a clean structure.”

When a quarterback deal takes up over 15% of the wage cap, it has produced combined outcomes.

In 2025, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford took up 22.6% of the crew’s cap house, the highest in the NFL, as LA went 12-5 and reached the NFC Championship Game.

But former Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa took up 19.1% of their groups’ cap house, tied for the second most in 2025. An NFC exec pointed to Tagovailoa, who signed a four-year, $212.4 million extension ($167M assured) in 2024, as a cautionary story and why Houston ought to wait.

“It’s hard to say ‘pay him’ after how the year ended,” one other NFC government mentioned. “They don’t have to. They have another year to do it.

“They may find yourself paying extra as a result of the numbers will go up. But you even have one other yr of knowledge: ‘Is he getting higher in the second yr in the offense? How is he doing? Is he wholesome?’ And possibly it prices you $2, 3, 5 million further a yr, however you are additionally not tied to that like what occurred with Tua.”

The NFC executive added that while waiting could cost you more financially, if Stroud performs up to its capabilities, then there’s no issues. Because if he’s paid and doesn’t produce, “it turns into weakening for the franchise, and the subsequent factor you already know another person is working the franchise.”

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And that’s what transpired in Miami.

The Dolphins regretted Tagovailoa’s extension immensely, as he ranked second in interceptions (15) in 2025. The Dolphins went 7-10, and he was benched in December. That led to Miami starting ways with general manager Chris Grier midseason and firing coach Mike McDaniel.

Now the Dolphins have a new management running the franchise in general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and coach Jeff Hafley. Subsequently, Tagovailoa was released, resulting in an NFL-record $99.2 million dead-cap hit, and signed with the Atlanta Falcons.

“[Waiting] lets him wager on himself too, which is what you need from the man,” the second AFC executive said. “No want to come back near resetting the market prematurely.”

Resetting the market is surpassing Prescott’s contract, which has the highest average per year salary at $61.6 million after signing a four-year, $240 million contract in September 2024.

Prescott secured $231 million guaranteed, the highest at the time of signing, before Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen eclipsed it with a six-year, $330 million contract extension with $250 million guaranteed in March 2025.

One scout doesn’t think an extension is coming, but there’s risk on both sides.

“If he goes again to rookie CJ, he’ll get 65 [million per year],” an AFC scout said, “but when he performs like final two years, then what?”