Guardians Analysis: Diagnosing Cade Smith & Trouble with the Split
Coming into the season, Cade Smith was the de facto nearer for the Guardians. The consensus round baseball was not solely Smith was a prime 5 reliever in the sport over the final two seasons, however that Cleveland did an amazing job making certain that the everlasting absence of serial cheater Emmanuel Clase can be a forgotten one. Thus far in 2026, that has not been the case.
After blowing a save on Tuesday evening in St. Louis, Smith has now blown eight saves throughout the final two seasons, tied for second most in baseball in that span. His 2026 early season stats sit like this: 9 appearances, 9 hits, 5.00 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 2 blown saves. It’s not been nice, however quite a bit underneath the hood signifies each that these issues are usually not solely fixable, however that Smith has nonetheless been a high quality reliever with out Lady Luck on his facet.
Cade Smith isn’t making sufficient aggressive pitches. If you wished so as to add as much as the bulk of his issues this season, that one sentence alone does it. Statcast breaks down the zone and the space surrounding it into 4 totally different sections:
- Heart: that is the space that’s basically categorized as down the center
In 2026, Smith resides in the coronary heart of the zone with his sweeper at the highest charge of his profession by almost 10%. Subsequently, his sweeper is operating his lowest whiff charge of his profession by over 6%, and it instantly correlates to his struggles to find the providing early on. That being stated, we’ll get again to this quickly as a result of whereas the location+whiff charge drop are correlated to at least one one other, there’s one other drawback inside this.
- Shadow: this space consists of the borderline areas inside the zone and simply barely exterior of it. An supreme place for aggressive pitches
Cade has largely not seen a giant distinction inside how usually he is attacking the edges of the zone. His fastball, though down, continues to be aggressively attacking the prime rail of the zone. Smith’s large extension and launch level create amongst the finest vertical method angles in baseball.
The sweeper and its whiff charge rears its head as soon as once more. That’s a close to 22% drop in whiff charge towards the sweeper in the shadow zone. What’s creating this drawback? Hint: it isn’t the sweeper. It’s one factor to indicate you all graphs and break issues down right into a zone by zone context, however Smith is finding his sweeper reasonably nicely. In truth, each sweeper he is put in the shadow zone has resulted in a strike, however just one swing and miss.
- Chase: this space is taken into account pitcher-friendly because it’s out of the zone, however nonetheless tempting sufficient to a batter to get swings
- Waste: this space is something past the chase zone and largely thought-about to be uncompetitive
The lone sweeper whiff in the shadow of the zone got here in a strikeout towards Jonathan India, however Smith is basically situated in related places with his sweeper as the earlier two seasons. His drawback proper now’s his splitter. The splitter is probably the largest really feel pitch of any pitch. Smith has not had it in any respect.
What batters have been in a position to do is reduce the plate in half towards Smith, and it is neutralized considered one of MLB’s hardest at-bats. Cade is discovering himself behind in counts at a a lot greater clip than regular, and an enormous a part of that’s Smith’s splitter being an uncompetitive providing almost 35% of the time it is being thrown proper now. Over 26% of his pitches this season have come behind in counts, simply the highest mark of his profession, and he is in flip turning to his fastball 84.3% of the time in these conditions. That a lot is nothing new, Smith’s fastball is his finest weapon, and it strains up with charges from the earlier two seasons, however at the charge during which he is falling behind as a result of he cannot discover his splitter, right-handed bats nearly do not even should be involved with it touchdown for strikes.
It’s ironic that Cade is having this problem as a result of his predecessor, Emmanuel Clase, had related points not having the ability to work alongside the internal third of the zone, permitting RHH to lean out over the plate. That’s presently the problem for Smith as nicely. In 2024 and 2025, Smith was in a position to find his fastball alongside the internal third to right-handed hitters at a 17.2% charge; efficient sufficient to maintain them sincere. That charge has dropped to 9%. This has solely compounded Smith’s points with his splitter, and in flip, his sweeper struggles to get the identical ugly swings it used to as a result of it is being requested to do far more than it ought to.
Cade’s arsenal works when blended collectively. He’s at all times going to be a fastball heavy, but when he cannot discover his splitter quickly, these identical points will solely persist. He is not constructed to generate weak contact from an id standpoint. He’s inbuilt a lab to get swings out of the zone and whiffs.
Smith will discover his splitter once more. It generally is a love/hate relationship, and proper now, it very a lot hates him. Smith might must work towards handedness utilization splits till he finds the really feel for the off-speed, however I anticipate a rebound sooner reasonably than later.
