Celtics playoff predictions hinge on Scheierman, Tatum and more – NBC Sports Boston
The 2025-26 NBA common season is within the rearview mirror, and the Boston Celtics outkicked most outsider expectations as a part of their 56-win season.
With an extended ramp to Sunday’s Game 1 of a first-round seriesit felt like an excellent time to each revisit our seven daring preseason predictions and ship a contemporary batch of seven predictions for the postseason trek forward.
Here is how our crystal ball fared with our seven bold preseason predictions:
1. Jaylen Brown returns to an All-NBA group. We do not even want to attend for the voting. It’s a lock.
2. Celtics end within the high 10 in steals this season. Big swing and a miss right here. Celtics completed twenty eighth in steals at 7.1 per sport. We ought to have mentioned high 10 in not permitting steals. Boston completed No. 1 within the NBA in opponent steals per sport (6.2).
3. Derrick White blocks 100+ pictures. White obtained to 98 in 77 video games. Close solely counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and preseason daring predictions.
4. The Celtics will produce one other 40/40 night time. It hasn’t occurred…but.
5. Josh Minott receives votes for Most Improved Player. We felt actually good about this one for like two weeks in November. We missed the slam dunk alternative in Neemias Queta.
6. Brad Stevens makes a splash-worthy deal in January 2026. Swapping Anfernee Simons for Nikola Vucevic offered the splashy commerce, even when the Celtics waited till February to make the transfer.
7. Jayson Tatum returns to sport motion in February 2026. We originally picked March 4 vs. charlotte and would have been off by a sport, as Tatum made his debut on March 6 vs. dallas. Alas, we obtained somewhat too formidable and shuffled as much as February.
Pair all these with our prediction that the Celtics would challenge for a top-four spot in the Eastand we really feel fairly assured about how the crystal ball fared. So we dusted it off with hopes of constructing one other handful of daring postseason prognostications.
These aren’t simply predictions; these are additionally in all probability must occur for Boston to have an extended and affluent run. Check a few of these packing containers and the Celtics would possibly simply be again on the Finals stage.
1. Baylor Scheierman’s protection turns into important.
Scheierman’s tongue-waging, mullet-flowing scoring outburst in the regular-season finale against Orlando It was extremely entertaining. But whereas flattening open appears to be like might be vital within the postseason, Scheierman’s greatest impression might be his defensive versatility.
If larger seeds had been to win out within the play-in sport and past, the Celtics would see most of the All-Stars they’ve confidently assigned Scheierman to defend this season. Some of his greatest matchup time totals this season have come in opposition to Tyrese Maxey and Cade Cunningham, with Jalen Brunson not far behind. And Scheierman has made them work for his or her factors.
Scheierman contested 20 pictures per 100 possessions throughout his ground time this season (eightieth percentile at his place) and held opponents to 1.1 p.c under anticipated output. He’s a relentless rebounder on each ends of the ground and has a knack for drawing offensive fouls.
Perhaps even more vital, he can defend with out fouling, committing infractions on simply 8.4 p.c of his contested pictures (81st percentile for his place).
Scheierman is changing into Derrick White-like at breaking apart odd-man rushes in transition and merely making good issues occur defensively. His basketball IQ has been on full show this season and him being in all the proper spots is a giant cause that he has earned Joe Mazzulla’s belief.
Scheierman goes to get known as on in massive spots all through the postseason. We puzzled if the group would possibly even elevate him to a beginning function in sure matchups, however as a result of the celebrities on the opposite facet will play such massive minutes, there’ll nonetheless be stretches the place he may very well be requested to defend elite expertise of all shapes and sizes whereas nonetheless coming off the bench.
Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez want to remain prepared in case the Celtics want different jolts of defensive vitality alongside the way in which. The backside line on this prediction: The younger assortment of wings has to go away their mark — even when in restricted doses — by the postseason.
2. The Celtics deal with dwelling courtroom … more so than current seasons.
Boston fumbled away two 20-point leads on its dwelling ground to start out final yr’s second-round matchup with the Knicks and mainly put itself in an inconceivable state of affairs to rally again. Two years earlier than that, Boston endured six of its 9 playoff losses on the Garden ground, together with Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in opposition to Miami.
Even throughout their 2024 title run, the Celtics misplaced early-round video games at dwelling in opposition to each the Heat and the Cavaliers earlier than tightening up the remainder of the way in which.
The Celtics have to revive a few of the Garden playoff mystique. There will inevitably be stumbles alongside the playoff path, however they can not give away dwelling courtroom early in a collection and dramatically skinny their margin for error with a youthful roster.
It’s additionally crucial to thrive at dwelling as a result of potential playoff opponents like Detroit (31-9 at dwelling) and New York (30-10) — and definitely any group that emerges out West — had been notably higher of their dwelling arenas than on the highway.
The Celtics will not be good at dwelling, however they’re going to be higher than we have seen in current seasons.
3. Jayson Tatum’s common for complete factors + rebounds + assists might be north of 41.
In 16 video games after his March return, Tatum averaged 21.8 factors, 10 rebounds, and 5.3 assists over 32.6 minutes per sport, or 37.1 factors + rebounds + assists. Over his closing 5 regular-season video games, these numbers spiked to 23.6 factors, 12 rebounds, and 7.8 assists over 36.2 minutes per sport (43.4 P+R+A).
So, 41-plus does not appear all that daring contemplating Tatum’s minutes may persistently scale close to or past 40 minutes within the postseason. But even throughout Boston’s run to a title within the 2024 postseason, he was at 25.0 factors, 9.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists — or precisely 41 P+R+A.
If this prediction comes true, he’d truly be filling up the field rating more whereas being lower than a yr faraway from an Achilles tear at first of the postseason. It’s all preposterous, however Tatum’s impression since returning is already mild years past what may have moderately been anticipated.
We’re bullish on Tatum placing up massive numbers within the postseason for 2 causes: 1) His rebounding has been off the charts since his return, and if Neemias Queta is doing the soiled work boxing out massive males, it is on wings like Tatum to wash up the glass, and 2) Tatum’s playmaking has leveled up but once more since his return and he is making a ton of high quality pictures for teammates.
4. Payton Pritchard hits no less than one buzzer-beater.
Is this even a daring prediction? Should we amend this to 1 per collection? If there’s underneath 10 seconds on the sport clock, groups must be triple-teaming Pritchard at this level. Somehow he nonetheless finds a option to get the ball and has full confidence in these conditions.
Pritchard can have no less than one buzzer-beating make that adjustments the momentum of one more playoff sport.
5. Boston’s playoff run options each “The Garza Game” and “The Vooch Game.”
Mazzulla may not wish to hear any Coach of the Year chatter, but it surely’s inarguable that he is had the heartbeat on his group all season lengthy whereas repeatedly pushing the proper buttons in numerous conditions.
Yes, the gamers deserve a whole lot of credit score for staying prepared, however Mazzulla saved them on their toes by being keen to alter their function from night time to nighttime, particularly when he thought they might assist the Celtics most.
That’s why we expect there’s room for each “The Garza Game” and “The Vooch Game” within the postseason. Luka Garza goes to show the vitality one night time along with his relentless hustle, whereas Nikola Vucevic, impressed by lastly being on a legit contender, can have a loud scoring night time the place he feasts from past the arc.
6. Jaylen Brown reaffirms his declaration as the most effective two-way participant within the NBA.
With Tatum again, Brown can decide spots to essentially depart his imprint on the defensive finish. And very like how we spotlighted Scheierman’s potential impression earlier in these predictions, it appears like Brown serving as the primary line of protection in opposition to a few of these All-Star opponents may gasoline an extended playoff run.
The most intriguing matchup could be a possible East Finals showdown with Detroit. Brown spent 9 minutes and 15 seconds defending Cunningham this season — the second-highest complete on the group behind Jordan Walsh (11:34) — and restricted Detroit’s MVP-caliber wing to 5 factors on 2-of-10 capturing, per NBA monitoring.
Even if it is Cleveland on the opposite facet, Brown has connected himself to the hip of James Harden in earlier seasons and swung these collection along with his protection.
There’s an actual probability to earn some more MVP {hardware} if Brown leaves the kind of two-way impression we noticed within the 2024 title run. He averaged 23.9 factors, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per sport in these playoffs, and we expect these marks will spike a bit this postseason.
7. Predicting the Path
- First spherical: No. 2 Celtics over No. 7 Magic/Sixers in 5 video games.
- Second spherical: No. 2 Celtics over No. 3 Knicks in seven video games.
- East Finals: No. 2 Celtics over No. 4 Cavaliers in six video games.
What occurs within the NBA Finals? Let’s make some more daring predictions in late May.
