The Alternative Premier League Table: No 30 – Supporter sentiment and expected points

Welcome to the newest version of The Alternative Premier League Table, the place every week, The Athletic analyses your entire division by a particular lens.

And with over 75 per cent of the Premier League marketing campaign within the books, now looks like a very good second to evaluate fan sentiment about their crew’s season.

To that finish, we’ve taken the crew rankings information from Fanalysis, an app the place followers can price their crew’s performances, together with these of the gamers, supervisor and even referees, after each match. My colleague Tim Spiers outlined in January how the app works.

Along with these fan expectations, this week’s Alternative Table can even have a look at how groups have carried out towards their expected points (xPT) as we enter the defining closing stretch of the season.

Key takeaways embody:

• Sunderland are high of Fanalysis’ crew rankings at 72.6 and are second in xPT overperformance on 10.4, solely behind Aston Villa (15.6).
• Wolves are unsurprisingly backside of the rankings at 55.9 and have underperformed their xPT by a league-worst 14.3.
• Brentford are fifth after overperforming fan expectations massively, although they’re just about the place they have been expected to be when it comes to xPT.
• Champions Liverpool sit sixth within the Premier League standings however are 18th within the Fanalysis rankings after a deeply inconsistent season.
• Tottenham Hotspur are decrease than Burnley and Nottingham Forest with a 57.7 score.

Sunderland

Having been touted as prime relegation candidates upon securing promotion, Sunderland have emerged as one of many league’s most constant groups. A stable defensive basis, a hard-working engine room led by Granit Xhaka (the highest-rated participant within the league at 78.2) and medical attacking play have all contributed to them reaching the 40-point mark with 9 video games to go.

They have misplaced two or extra video games in succession simply as soon as — in February towards Arsenal, Liverpool and Fulham — whereas stringing collectively unbeaten runs of 4 or extra video games on three completely different events. Their Fanalysis crew score has not dropped under 67.9 throughout any five-game stretch and they’re nonetheless solely 4 points behind seventh-placed Brentford.

Aston Villa

Villa have overperformed expectations for a lot of the season. Opta’s mannequin has them thirteenth with 35.4 xPT however they sit fourth with 51 points. Their 39 objectives have come from 35.3xG (a measure of the standard of probabilities created by groups), whereas their opponents’ xG underperformance of 8.5 leads the league.

An wonderful run between September 28 and January 3, once they misplaced simply twice whereas profitable 13 occasions, noticed their crew score soar from 55.6 (third-worst within the league) after their first 5 matches to 67.8 (sixth-best) by Matchweek 20.

But Villa’s overperformance is catching as much as them. They have scored 4 objectives from 7.0xG of their final six matches, whereas their opponents have racked up 9 from 8.9xG, leading to a run of 1 win and three defeats.

Wolves

Wolves have alternated between nineteenth or twentieth in crew score for a lot of 2025-26, having needed to wait until January for his or her first win. That didn’t instantly spark a run of kind however a comeback draw with Arsenal and large wins over Villa and Liverpool of their final 4 league matches have seen them construct some momentum.

Their 61.7 score within the final 15 matches ranks sixteenth, a major enchancment on a league-worst price of 49.9 from the primary 15.

Brentford

Having misplaced Thomas Frank and his whole workers, together with Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa and Christian Norgaard, pessimism appeared the dominant sentiment circling Brentford in August. A run of 1 win of their first 5 matches didn’t assist issues both, with their crew score of 60.3 rating seventeenth at that stage.

But Keith Andrews’ facet have stabilised brilliantly since then, counting on small blocks of stable kind over the sustained highs and lows skilled by different groups within the league. Brentford haven’t received three successive matches all season however have received two in a row on 4 events whereas placing collectively a six-match unbeaten run of their busiest stretch between December 14 and January 7.

Keith Andrews is blissful and so are many Brentford followers (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Tottenham Hotspur

Igor Tudor has overseen three consecutive league defeats, including to the 2 Frank suffered earlier than his sacking in February. Spurs haven’t received a league recreation since December 28 (1-0 at Palace) and are on the cusp of exiting the Champions League after a 5-2 first-leg defeat at Atletico Madrid within the final 16.

Their quick begin to the season, which noticed one defeat in seven and convincing wins over Burnley, Manchester City and West Ham United, now appears a distant reminiscence. That early spell of kind noticed Spurs rank fourth in Fanalysis’ crew score at 71.9, however that has fallen considerably and their 40.2 score over the past 4 matches unsurprisingly ranks backside.

Injuries and self-discipline have been points all season for Spurs, as evidenced by their high three gamers in Fanalysis’ rankings. Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Bergvall are each at present out injured, whereas Cristian Romero has missed six league video games resulting from suspension and an additional two with an damage.

Guglielmo Vicario, who has allowed a league-high 4.4 non-penalty objectives greater than expected, is the worst-rated goalkeeper within the league (53.7).

Relegation is a rising menace with visits to Liverpool and Sunderland up subsequent, both facet of a six-pointer with Nottingham Forest, who beat Spurs 3-0 on the City Ground in December.

Liverpool

Liverpool face the biggest disparity in crew score (seventeenth on 63.1) and their place within the desk (sixth with 48 points). Considered title contenders given their standing as reigning champions and a summer season of excessive expenditure, they’ve struggled for attacking fluency and defensive consistency all season.

Liverpool’s greatest spell of kind got here within the opening weeks of the season when one late winner after one other led them to 5 successive wins. Since then, they’ve received 9 occasions and picked up 33 points from 24 matches, which might place them eighth within the league throughout that stretch, behind Everton (36 points) and Brentford (40).

Their crew score peaked at 69.1 after the primary 5 matche,s earlier than dropping to 60.8 by the tip of Matchweek 15.

Arsenal

They could also be seven points clear on the high of the desk (having performed one recreation extra), however Fanalysis’ rankings recommend there may be loads of emotional scar tissue amongst Arsenal followers.

Mikel Arteta’s facet have beforehand misplaced out on titles resulting from accumulating too many attracts. Arsenal’s common fan score of 62.1 for a draw is the second-lowest (behind Liverpool’s 61.2), which is considerably comprehensible given two of their seven attracts have come away to Wolves and Forest.

Their run of two wins, two attracts and a defeat between Matchweeks 21 and 25 noticed them obtain a 62.1 score, rating sixteenth. Even their latest run of three wins and two attracts has solely seen them rated sixth greatest at 66.5.

Arsenal have dealt largely properly with expectations, however these closing eight matches require extra of the identical below even higher strain.

Arsenal’s followers and gamers have been left deflated by attracts this season (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

Manchester City

The criticism round Arsenal has include Manchester City rounding out into kind, receiving a league-best 72.7 score throughout the final 4 matches regardless of a 2-2 draw with Forest dampening among the optimism.

City ranked Eleventh and seventh respectively throughout the primary two five-game blocks of the season. But not like earlier seasons, they haven’t been in a position to kick on outdoors of a six-game profitable streak between November 29 and December 27.

Three consecutive attracts within the first week of January — together with points dropped at Spurs and at house to Forest — have harm them too.

Three new signings – Gianluigi Donnarumma, Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki – are their highest-rated gamers. All three have produced match-altering moments and City will want extra of these if they’re to overtake the deficit on the high.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth’s type typically leads to wild oscillations in kind, which might be seen of their crew score too.

Their quick begin to the season noticed them rank third total after 10 video games however drop to eighth by the tip of 20 matches amid a run of no wins, 5 losses and 5 attracts. Andoni Iraola’s facet have recovered their mojo since and have picked up 17 points from their final 9 matches, solely behind Manchester United (20), City and Arsenal (each 18) in that stretch.

Fanalysis at present rank them sixth on 68.6, with winnable video games towards Burnley, Leeds, Palace and Forest earlier than the season ends.

Bournemouth’s key concern can be conserving Iraola, whose score of 73.5 is third amongst all managers and 4.7 greater than the crew’s score, the largest hole throughout the league.

Manchester United

Under Ruben Amorim, Manchester United’s 56.6 score after 21 matches ranked seventeenth. Michael Carrick’s first 4 video games in cost introduced wins over Manchester City, Arsenal, Fulham and Spurs, with their crew score of 72.3 between Matchweeks 21 and 25 rating first within the league.

Expectations at United are understandably excessive, although, and the 1-1 draw with West Ham and 2-1 loss to Newcastle have seen them garner a score of 63.5 over the past 4 video games, solely good for 14th.

Bruno Fernandes has impressed since Carrick’s arrival however usually divided fan opinion below Ruben Amorim. Lisandro Martinez, regardless of enjoying simply 905 league minutes resulting from accidents to his anterior cruciate ligament and extra just lately, his calf, is their best-rated participant (71.1). Martinez, United’s solely left-footed centre-back, is essential to their ball development from the again.

The composed Senne Lammens is second on 70.6.

Crystal Palace

Palace’s season might be divided into two distinct halves.

They misplaced simply three of their first 15 matches, beating Brentford, Liverpool and Villa, whereas drawing with Chelsea, Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion. The FA Cup holders ranked first, second and second in crew score throughout the league after 5, 10 and 15 matches respectively.

That was adopted by a nine-match winless run, together with the affirmation of Marc Guehi’s departure to Manchester City and Oliver Glasner’s exit on the finish of the season. Palace’s Fanalysis score between Matchweek 25 and 30, once they misplaced twice, drew twice and received as soon as, was 68.3, nonetheless adequate for fifth within the league. Their final 4 video games (two wins and two losses) have introduced a score of 65.9 (seventh-best).

Goodwill from final season’s historic success is a doable issue. Palace’s common score of 72.6 for attracts solely trails Leeds’ 74.2, whereas their 63.5 common score in losses is the very best throughout the league and 77.3 common score for wins is the joint-highest with Forest.

Leeds United

Leeds’ season will also be break up into distinct halves, albeit otherwise to Palace.

They received simply 4 of their first 15 matches whereas dropping eight occasions, rating thirteenth or decrease throughout every five-game block. The final of these matches — a 3-1 win over Chelsea that noticed Daniel Farke change from a sluggish build-up system to a extra direct one — arrange a profitable second half of the marketing campaign.

As the graph under reveals, Leeds have jostled with the most effective within the league throughout the final 14 video games (break up into two blocks of 5 and one block of 4). Their 76.3 score between Matchweek 16 and 20, which included attracts with Liverpool (twice) and Manchester United and a 4-1 thrashing of Palace, is the very best by a crew throughout a five-match stretch this season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been wonderful because the change of system, however James Justin’s versatility and consistency have resonated with followers, who’ve made him their highest-rated participant (74.5).

Nottingham Forest

Forest have constantly ranked between 14th and 18th within the Fanalysis rankings throughout a season that has seen them make use of 4 completely different managers.

Sean Dyche helped put collectively their greatest five-game stretch, choosing up three wins, together with a 3-0 thrashing of Liverpool, between Matchweek 11 and 15. Their 68.5 score throughout these matches ranked seventh within the league.

Forest have had some large scalps, beating Brentford twice, Leeds and Spurs, which could clarify their followers giving wins a 77.3 score on common, tied for highest with Palace. It may, in fact, additionally signify reduction.

Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White have constructed on their 2024-25 exploits to proceed delivering in a extra risky atmosphere. But Murillo, who’s comfortably their greatest defender, is the highest-rated Forest participant because it stands (70.1).

Chelsea

Chelsea have some of the demanding fanbases within the league, with their common win score of 72.9 solely decrease than these of Liverpool (71.2) and Fulham (71.7). Even their run of 4 wins and one loss between Matchweeks 21 and 25 earned them a score of solely 66.6, solely good for eighth throughout that stretch. Leeds, who received two and misplaced two in that timespan, have been ranked fourth with a 69.8 score.

Part of that’s all the way down to their fluctuating kind. Big wins have typically been adopted by attracts or defeats that deflate momentum. A younger, inexperienced squad has made 23 errors resulting in a shot or purpose, whereas accumulating eight crimson playing cards (worst within the league) and 70 yellow playing cards (third-worst).

Club captain Reece James, the one participant left from the pre-Clearlake period, is their highest-rated participant at 72.9, with Moises Caicedo (71.4) and the thrilling Estevao (69.7) behind him.

Summer arrivals Alejandro Garnacho (64.0) and Liam Delap (59.6), who’ve scored two mixed league objectives from 6.6xG, are amongst their lowest-rated.

Reece James’ wonderful season is mirrored in his Fanalysis participant score (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Fulham

Fulham, tenth in each the desk and within the Fanalysis rankings, are among the many most stable however unspectacular sides within the league. Marco Silva’s facet can bother Chelsea, Arsenal, Sunderland and Manchester City but additionally battle towards Crystal Palace, Everton and West Ham. Across the season, they’ve remained between eighth and tenth in crew score.

Fulham’s common win score of 71.7 is the second-lowest within the league however the 12.4-point distinction to their common loss score of 59.3 is the smallest. That hints at an understanding of why they lie the place they do within the division’s meals chain.

West Ham United

Graham Potter’s 5 matches in cost noticed West Ham obtain a score of 47.1, among the many worst for a crew throughout a five-game block this season. They confirmed progressive enchancment from there on till a run of 4 losses and a draw between Matchweeks 16 and 20 introduced them again down.

West Ham have since discovered some kind because the graph under reveals, profitable 4 of 9 video games, with their 68.3 score throughout Matchweeks 21 to 25 rating fifth.

Summer signing Mateus Fernandes, winter arrival Taty Castellanos (each rated 67.2) and the spectacular Crysencio Summerville (65.0) have been West Ham’s highest-rated gamers.

Everton

Everton have moved between tenth and 14th in cumulative crew score throughout the season, by no means transferring above 67.3.

They have received 5 and misplaced 4 of their final 14 matches after profitable seven and dropping 5 of the primary 15, staying heading in the right direction for a top-half end and perhaps a sneaky bid for a European spot. Everton’s score has dropped by simply 0.8 from the season’s first half (65.5) to the second (64.7).

Summer signings Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (six objectives, three assists) and Jack Grealish (two objectives, six assists) have been a breath of contemporary air of their new stadium. Grealish is, in fact, now out for the season, however Thierno Barry has scored 5 occasions in his final 11 league video games after netting as soon as within the earlier 18, prompting additional optimism.

Newcastle United

Newcastle have one of many largest disparities in score throughout completely different departments of their squad. Their defence is rated eighth by followers however the goalkeeping division is seventeenth, with each Nick Pope and Aaron Ramsdale failing to impress. Pope’s three errors resulting in a purpose is the joint-most alongside Villa’s Emiliano Martinez.

Further ahead, their midfield, led by Bruno Guimaraes, is rated Eleventh. But a misfiring frontline, with summer season arrivals Nick Woltemade, Yoane Wissa and Anthony Elanga scoring eight league objectives between them from 10.0xG, ranks seventeenth.

The defence has been suspect late in video games just lately too, with Newcastle’s seven errors resulting in a shot or purpose after the eightieth minute rating solely behind Palace and West Ham (each eight). Newcastle ranked seventh in crew score on 67.6 after 15 video games however now sit 14th on 64.8 after profitable simply 5 and dropping seven of their final 14 matches.

Nick Pope has endured an inconsistent season at Newcastle (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Brighton and Hove Albion

Brighton have received consecutive video games simply twice all season, with their 10 attracts solely trailing Bournemouth’s 13. That constant inconsistency has meant their score has been largely secure, with only a 0.9 drop from the primary 15 video games (66.5) in comparison with the final 14 (65.6).

Fabian Hurzeler has acquired criticism from followers, notably throughout a run of 1 win in 13 league video games between December 3 and February 11. His score of 61.3 is fifteenth among the many 20 present managers, whereas Brighton’s house document (24 points from 15 matches, Eleventh-best within the league) is a trigger for concern.

Recent kind has introduced some optimism, nevertheless. Brighton rank third in crew score at 70.0 over the past 4 video games after beating Brentford and Nottingham Forest whereas falling to slim 1-0 defeats at Villa and towards Arsenal at house.

Burnley

Expectations have been low for Burnley after a summer season that noticed them add high quality however restricted expertise. But their first 5 matches, which introduced a victory towards Sunderland, draw with Forest and two one-goal defeats to Manchester United and Liverpool, hinted that they’ve some battle in them.

After 5 video games, Burnley’s 68.5 score ranked seventh within the league. After 15, they have been on 65.7, adequate for Eleventh.

They have struggled since, profitable certainly one of their final 14 matches. Eight of their 18 defeats have been by a solitary purpose, with some heartbreaking losses such because the 4-3 house reverse to Brentford once they got here again from 3-0 down.