Bracketology Winners and Losers: How weak is the 2026 NCAA Tournament bubble? Just ask Texas and Auburn

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The 2026 NCAA Tournament bubble is so weak that groups struggling via extended late-season slumps are getting grace merely as a result of others round the at-large cut-line are shedding, too. Case in level: Texas.

The Longhorns took a Quad 2 loss in opposition to Ole Miss on Wednesday in the first spherical of the SEC Tournament at Bridgestone Arena, falling 76-66 in opposition to a Rebels crew that is now simply 13-19. The Longhorns will arrive at Selection Sunday as an 18-14 crew that has dropped 5 of its final six video games.

But they’re nonetheless alive and kicking in the race for an at-large bid.

After one other day of carnage, the Longhorns will stay in the CBS Sports Bracketology subject of 68 for now, largely as a result of nobody has risen to take their spot.

Texas entered the day at No. 44 in the all-important Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric and will take successful following the loss. But the WAB’s No. 46 (SMU), No. 47 (Indiana), No. 48 (Oklahoma State) and No. 49 (Cal) groups additionally misplaced Wednesday to offer some padding for the Longhorns’ newest fall.

The wasted Wednesday for bubble groups adopted a horrible Tuesday that noticed Stanford and Virginia Tech lose of their first spherical ACC Tournament video games and slide from life like at-large consideration to territory that ought to be unpalatable for inclusion.

Winner: Auburn survives one other day

A 79-61 win over lowly Mississippi State wasn’t precisely a resume-enhancer for Auburn. But the win stored the Tigers’ at-large hopes alive on a day when many others of their neighborhood struggled. A Thursday showdown with No. 5 seed Tennessee in the SEC Tournament’s second spherical will probably be large for the Tigers, who crept into the final spot on the subject in CBS Sports Bracketology on Wednesday night time.

Loser: Texas’ case dampened by previous coach

Texas’ early exit from the SEC Tournament got here with the added sting of being inflicted by former coach Chris Beard, who led the Longhorns to a No. 6 seed in the 2022 Big Dance throughout his solely full season main the program. But in Beard, the Longhorns have an advocate getting into a nervous Selection Sunday.

“I think the resume speaks for itself in the SEC,” Beard mentioned of the Longhorns, who owns six Quad 1 wins. “My confidence is they could have a nice NCAA Tournament. Sean (Miller) knows what he’s doing. He’s done it with multiple teams, and I think they’ve got really good players. The NCAA Tournament, in my opinion, it comes down to matchups, and I think Texas has players that can lead them to the second weekend.”

Winner: NC State nears security

NC State‘s 98-88 win over Pitt in the ACC Tournament was no factor of magnificence, and it could have been all the Wolfpack must solidify themselves in the subject of 68. Beating a foul Pitt crew will deliver little actual increase to NC State’s resume. But it certain beats the various at a time when others on the bubble are struggling. Would a win over No. 2 seed Virginia in Thursday’s quarterfinals deliver some insurance coverage? Absolutely. But until there is a surge of bid thieves and a sudden wave of surprises from the dwindling bubble contingent, Will Wade’s membership ought to be dancing throughout his first season at the helm.

Loser: Indiana makes a weak impression

Indiana entered the Big Ten Tournament possible needing a run to the quarterfinals to garner severe at-large consideration. The Hoosiers got here up nicely wanting the goal, falling 74-61 in opposition to Northwestern of their opening recreation of the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday. IU will head into Selection Sunday at 18-14 with losses in six of its final seven video games. The Hoosiers can have a unfavourable rating in WAB and an unsavory 6-14 report in opposition to Quad 1 and Quad 2 opposition.

Winner: Iowa a lock?

Whether Iowa performed itself to sure lock standing with a 75-64 win over No. 17 seed Maryland on Wednesday might need been up for debate had a bunch of different bubble groups received. But the Hawkeyes averted the disaster which might have been shedding to the 12-win Terrapins and possible secured their spot on the subject. beating Ohio State on Thursday would make for some nice insurance coverage, however the Hawkeyes most likely do not want it at this level after enhancing to 21-11.

Loser: Cal goes down

Cal bought a brutal draw for the ACC Tournament, as the No. 9 seed Bears opened in opposition to a sizzling Florida State crew. The No. 8 seed Seminoles stored their late-season emergence alive with a 95-89 victory that possible ended Cal’s at-large aspirations. The Bears entered the day at No. 49 in WAB and lagging in different metrics. They most likely wanted a win over FSU and an upset of No. 1 seed duke on Thursday. But Cal will not get a crack at the Blue Devils, and the Bears should not anticipate to see their identify flash throughout the display screen on Sunday.

Loser: SMU’s destiny up for debate

SMU‘s at-large destiny is up for debate following the Mustangs’ 62-58 loss to Louisville in the second spherical of the ACC Tournament. The Mustangs will head into Selection Sunday having dropped 5 of their previous six video games and with a profile of results-based metrics hovering in the mid-40s, which is proper round the at-large lower line. With a mixed 9 Quad 1 and Quad 2 victories, this crew actually has an opportunity. But the subsequent few days will probably be nerve-wracking for a Mustangs program that seemed to be in nice form just some weeks in the past.

Winner: UCF earns safety

UCF might need been protected both means. Now, the Knights can exhale after rallying for a 66-65 extra time win over Cincinnati at the Big 12 Tournament. Regardless of what occurs in Thursday’s quarterfinal matchup with No. 1 seed ArizonaUCF (21-10) ought to enter Selection Sunday with a ok abstract. This crew has a lagging NET rating (No. 51 getting into Wednesday’s motion) nevertheless it is comfortably inside the top-40 of WAB, which is extra intently correlated with choice. It could be a giant shock if the Knights aren’t dancing.

Loser: Cincinnati’s dream dies

Cincinnati tried its finest to rally over the last month of the common season, successful six of seven video games at one level to succeed in the bubble dialogue. But after falling 73-63 at TCU in Saturday’s common season finale and shedding to UCF on Wednesday, the Bearcats’ dream has of dancing has died.