Merrimack Warriors vs. Sienna Saints prediction, pick for NCAAM on Friday 2/20/26
Dan Johnson takes you thru his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s school basketball recreation between the Merrimack Warriors and the Sienna Saints.
Hynes Athletics Center is getting a MAAC recreation that feels massive on this Friday. Saint Peter’s walks in at 15-9 and 12-4 in league play, sitting close to the highest of the race. Iona is 15-12 and 7-9, and the margin for error is principally gone. The first assembly already set the tone when the Peacocks beat the Gaels 77-63 in late January, so it is a solve-it rematch. Saint Peter’s simply dealt with Fairfield 83-74, whereas Iona is coming off a 70-68 loss to Niagara, which sharpens the urgency on the house facet. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s school basketball recreation between the Merrimack Warriors and the Sienna Saints.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for particular person video games all season, with loads of protection right here on DraftKings Network. Follow my deal with @dansby_edits for extra betting performs.
The Warriors are at a 1,076 offensive effectivity with a 14.0% turnover charge, and their free-point lane is louder than it seems to be with a 39.2% free-throw-attempt charge. Siena’s offense is stable at 1.036, however the margin will get brittle when the jumpers need to be excellent, and Merrimack’s protection has made {that a} season-long theme: opponents are capturing .290 from 3 and .415 general in opposition to this group. If this stays within the low 60s late, the workforce that may manufacture factors on the stripe and win the giveaway battle normally owns the final 4 minutes.
The individuals who resolve it match the identical image. Kevair Kennedy is Merrimack’s engine at 17.7 factors, 4.1 assists, and a pair of.0 steals, and that’s precisely the stat-line of a guard who turns empty possessions onto runway. Ernest Shelton is the second scorer at 15.9, and he has already supplied the function within the first assembly by main the best way with 17 when Merrimack broke the sport open. Tye Dorset provides 11.4 factors with 2.2 assists, which issues as a result of ball motion is how zone video games cease being coin flips. On the opposite facet, Gavin Doty places Siena on his again at 17.1 factors and seven.3 boards, Justice Shoats provides 13.5 with 4.5 assists, and Francis Folefac is the matchup bender inside after dropping 22 and 10 within the first assembly.
Sienna vs. Merrimack pick, finest guess
Siena’s harm checklist has been messy, and lacking ball-handling could make a zone recreation really feel like a lure. Nick Ducharme is out with a shoulder harm, Tasman Goodrick is out for the season, and Joey Schlager is out with a rib challenge, which compresses creation and may flip late-clock possessions into pressured floaters. That additionally cuts each methods, although, as a result of Merrimack’s final 5 have all lived within the grinder vary, and it retains successful these scripts anyway, together with 56-49 over Quinnipiac and 69-67 over Marist. Merrimack feels nearer to a one-possession-plus favourite than a coin flip.
The finest guess is Merrimack -2.5, playable to -3.5. The quantity is brief for a workforce that has lived within the window all season, and the market report backs it up with Merrimack sitting close to the highest of the ATS league whereas Siena has been extra middle-band in that very same class.
Prediction: Merrimack 67, Siena 62.
Best guess: Merrimack -2.5 (-110) vs. Siena
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