How NBA’s conference gap has shrunk this season, playoff impact
A story has taken maintain of the NBA this season: the injury-depleted and talent-poor Eastern Conference is a large number, whereas the West is prospering with nice groups and pleasure.
Indeed, the Western playoff picture is stuffed with intriguing storylines, from the Oklahoma City Thunder‘s quest to repeat as champions, to Victor Wembanyama‘s rise for the ahead-of-schedule San Antonio Spursto veteran-laden contenders struggling for consistency in Denver, Minnesota, Houston and Los Angeles.
But with 4 robust groups, in addition to a set of intriguing up-and-comers, the East has its personal narrative hooks, contradicting the adage that the East is least, West is greatest.
Let’s discover this narrative, why the Eastern Conference has underrated power this season and the way that stunning growth may form the upcoming playoffs.
Traditional Western dominance
After the East dominated interconference play for a lot of the twentieth century, the West has flipped the script for a lot of the twenty first. From 1999-00 by means of 2024-25, the East had a greater report in simply three out of 26 seasons, and people three victories have been slim, whereas the West often received the interconference battle by vast margins.
There are loads of illustrative examples of the intense imbalance between the 2 conferences this century. In the 2002-03 season, the Detroit Pistons landed the East’s No. 1 seed with a 50-32 report, whereas six Western groups received no less than 50 video games. In 2003-04, solely 4 Eastern groups had successful data. In 2006-07, all 5 gamers on the All-NBA first crew got here from the West. In 2013-14, the Phoenix Suns‘ 48-34 report would have tied the Suns for third place within the East, however within the West, they have been ninth and missed the playoffs within the pre-play-in period.
That imbalance held not just for groups, but additionally for the NBA’s high particular person skills. In the twenty first century, 63% of All-NBA gamers have come from the West. In truth, the 2024-25 season was the primary this century with extra All-NBA gamers from the East (eight) than the West (seven).
Western groups have even loved extra lottery luck throughout the years, with elite prospects Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama touchdown with Western squads. The 5 No. 1 picks within the twenty first century with the worst profession field plus/minus rankings have been all drafted by Eastern Conference groups: Anthony Bennett, Zaccharie Risacher, Kwame Brown, Andrea Bargnani and Markelle Fultz.
This long-standing development appeared set to proceed, if not rising, this season, particularly with two of the perfect groups within the East (the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers) dropping their greatest gamers to Achilles tears. An evaluation of preseason over-unders from Basketball-Reference means that Vegas anticipated Western groups to win 54% of their interconference video games, in keeping with latest historical past, and 5 of the top-seven groups in preseason championship odds got here from the West.
A flipped script in 2025-26
Contrary to expectations, the East has stored tempo within the conference race this season. Through Monday’s video games, Western groups are simply 161-157 in opposition to their Eastern counterparts, for a 50.6% win charge. That’s proof of parity, not lopsided dominance.
That steadiness is very related on the high of the standings: Eastern Conference groups rank second (Celtics), third (Pistons), fifth (New York Knicks) and eighth (Cleveland Cavaliers) in internet score, whereas Western Conference groups take the primary, fourth, sixth and seventh spots. Four groups from the East are projected to win 50-plus video games, versus 5 from the West, in response to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI).
A pure counterargument is likely to be that the perfect Eastern groups are fattening up in opposition to worse opponents. But the underside of the West is simply as unhealthy as the underside of the East, if not worse; the groups 11 by means of 15 within the East standings are on a 26.3-win common tempo, versus a mean 25.6-win tempo within the West. And by Basketball-Reference’s Simple Rating System, which ranks groups by level differential and power of schedule, Eastern groups are second (Pistons), third (Celtics), fifth (Knicks) and seventh (Cavaliers) total.
Furthermore, we will study how groups have carried out solely in opposition to Western Conference opponents, to regulate for strength-of-schedule variations. By this metric, 10 groups have a internet score greater than plus-3: 5 within the West (the highest 5 groups within the standings) and 5 within the East (the highest 4 plus the Charlotte Hornets).
This hidden conference parity seems not simply when assessing how groups have carried out up to now, but additionally when projecting how they will carry out for the remainder of the season. By the playoff model of BPI, 4 of the highest six groups play within the East. The so-called lesser conference seems even higher by the full-strength model of estimated plus-minus, from analytical web site Dunks & Threes, boasting 4 of the highest 5 groups.
BPI Playoff for Top-Six Seeds
Every Eastern Conference contender has an apparent weak spot that might thwart its Finals hopes. The Pistons rank twenty eighth in 3-pointers and have not received a playoff sequence because the George W. Bush administration. The Cavaliers are incorporating an injured James Harden into their rotation and may appear to be paper tigers after consecutive playoff flameouts. The Celtics are in a sort of limbo as they wait Jayson Tatum‘s return from an Achilles tear. And the Knicks have not jelled this season. A crew led by Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns will face massive defensive questions within the postseason.
Yet, the identical may very well be mentioned about all of the Western Conference contenders chasing the Thunder, who’re the defending champions. San Antonio is inexperienced. The Denver Nuggetsweighed down by main damage considerations, rank twenty first in defensive score. The Houston Rockets are 18th in offensive score since Steve Adams‘season-ending left ankle injurywhereas the Minnesota Timberwolves They are one of many least constant groups within the league. And the Los Angeles Lakers have the worst protection for any crew with a successful report, whereas overperforming its level differential by the widest margin of any crew within the league.
Playoff implications
Despite that proof of conference steadiness, the West ought to nonetheless maintain a couple of benefits heading into April. First, extra top-tier superstars play within the West. With Tatum nonetheless recovering and Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s Milwaukee Bucks unlikely to qualify for the playoffs, arguably the highest 5 gamers within the 2025-26 postseason will all battle it out within the West: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka DoncicWembanyama and Anthony Edwards.
Second, the West has one overwhelmingly nice crew with out any obvious weaknesses. Even after an injury-induced relative stoop, the Thunder nonetheless dominates each superior metric of crew power. BPI offers them a few 50-50 probability to win the title and grow to be the primary repeat champions because the 2017-18 Warriors; If the Thunder navigate the Western playoff bracket to succeed in the Finals, BPI tasks they will beat their Eastern Conference opponent 78% of the time. (However, the principle Eastern Conference contenders would have a coin flip’s probability or higher in opposition to any Finals opponent aside from Oklahoma City.)
And third, the West has higher depth past its high 4 groups, which ought to produce extra compelling first-round matchups. The fifth-, sixth- and seventh-ranked groups have higher data within the West than the East, and the star energy for the Lakers, Golden State Warriors (granted a wholesome Stephen Curry) and LA Clippers means these groups profile as extra harmful playoff spoilers than their Eastern counterparts.
In distinction, the East’s first spherical may lack many upsets — though a wholesome model of the Philadelphia 76ers and the red-hot Charlotte Hornets may give a high seed fairly a scare, in the event that they proceed pushing into the playoffs. A Hornets-Pistons first-round sequence after last month’s brawl could be must-watch TV.
Detroit, Boston, New York and Cleveland will probably end within the high 4 within the East in some order; in response to BPI, there’s solely a 5% probability that any of them falls. However, that construction may produce a pair of conference semifinal matchups simply as attractive as what’s on provide within the West.
The probably second-round matchups in both conference, per BPI, are Pistons-Cavaliers and Celtics-Knicks. Playoff BPI charges all 4 groups almost identically, at between 5 and 6 factors above common. All 4 groups have no less than a 20% probability to succeed in the Finals, per BPI’s reckoning.
But a wide-open race doesn’t suggest an inferior one. This four-way tussle tantalises, that includes younger stars and veterans searching for to erase our playoff narratives, and former champions and proud franchises stared for postseason success.
And this high-level competitors means there will not be any simple paths to the Finals, as was the case in a number of earlier years when the East lagged far behind the West. Barring unexpected playoff upsets, whichever crew emerges because the Eastern Conference champion can have needed to defeat two high-caliber opponents en route. Whichever Eastern crew claims a Finals berth must actually earn it.
