Premier League predictions and best bets: Listen to Arne Slot and back Liverpool to struggle against Wolves low block | Football News

Our soccer betting knowledgeable Jones Knows gives his perception throughout the midweek Premier League card.

Bournemouth vs Brentford, Tuesday 7.30pm

Bournemouth underneath Andoni Iraola are all about making issues occur. They construct by the thirds, commit numbers centrally and encourage their midfielders to step into capturing zones slightly than simply flow into the ball.

That tactical freedom is bringing the best out of Alex Scott.

The 11/10 with Sky Bet for Scott to have two or extra photographs makes loads of attraction whenever you drill into the latest numbers. He’s cleared this line in seven of his final eight appearances, racking up 24 photographs throughout that spell. That’s a median of three per recreation – comfortably north of what this market is asking for.

Scott is creating actual confidence and authority on this system. Scott appears like the following success story off the Bournemouth conveyor belt based mostly on his elevated impression on this staff.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Alex Scott +2 photographs (11/10 with Sky Bet)

Everton vs Burnley, Tuesday 7.30pm

The 3/1 with Sky Bet for Bashir Humphreys to be carded appears chunky whenever you line up the match-up down that flank.

Humphreys, working down the left for Burnley, has been booked in 4 of his final 9 begins in that function. That’s a 44 per cent hit fee. At 3/1, the market is implying one thing nearer to 25 per cent. There’s a niche there which places an edge in our favor.

And then you definitely consider who he is probably to be going through.

Iliman Ndiaye is a type of attackers defenders hate taking part in against. Direct, sharp over 5 yards and intelligent together with his physique positioning. Since the beginning of final season he is been answerable for drawing 11 playing cards from opponents – a robust indicator of how usually he forces defenders into last-ditch challenges or cynical pulls.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Leeds vs Sunderland, Tuesday 7.30pm

There’s a pleasant fouls gained angle based mostly play right here that leans into participant habits.

The BuildABet with Sky Bet – Gabriel Gudmundsson to be fouled 2+ instances and Granit Xhaka to be fouled 1+ instances – rolls up to a really backable 13/8.

Gudmundsson is a foul-winning machine. He’s been fouled a minimum of as soon as in every of his final 22 begins, averaging 2.1 fouls gained per 90 minutes in that stretch. That’s elite territory for this market. Just take a look at Saturday’s conflict with Manchester City. Five fouls gained. That tells you the whole lot about his function.

Then there’s Xhaka.

The wily previous fox routine is alive and nicely. He won’t cowl the bottom he as soon as did, however he is mastered the artwork of drawing mushy fouls – stepping throughout opponents, utilizing his physique intelligently and exaggerating simply sufficient to get the whistle.

He’s been fouled a minimum of eleven in seven of his final eight video games, incomes 15 fouls throughout that run. That’s a gradual, dependable baseline. One foul gained is all we’d like from him – and two from Gudmundsson.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Wolves vs Liverpool, Tuesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

There’s a little bit of blind religion out there round Liverpool for the time being.

They’re being priced on repute and peak efficiency ranges slightly than what the tactical match-up would possibly seem like right here. The 13/8 with Sky Bet on Wolves double probability (win or draw) is value severe consideration.

Why? Because that is precisely the kind of recreation that may make life awkward for Liverpool.

Arne Slot has spoken overtly about his aspect’s discomfort when going through low blocks – groups that deny central house, sluggish the tempo and power them into sterile domination. Without Florian Wirtz knitting issues collectively between the traces, that artistic incision is not fairly as sharp.

Wolves, underneath Rob Edwards, have gotten a more durable nut to crack exactly as a result of they embrace that method. Compact, disciplined and ready to endure with out the ball is their remit.

Wolves have landed this double probability play against Arsenal, Newcastle United and Aston Villa when going off heavy outsiders. They’re comfy being underestimated.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0

Aston Villa vs Chelsea, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Aston Villa are a staff to oppose proper now whereas their engine room stays out of motion. The absence of John McGinn, Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara strips them of management, development and chunk in one of the crucial essential areas of the pitch.

Without that trio, Villa look stale. Possession is slower. The press lacks cohesion. The intent simply is not there.

The outcomes back it up. One win in six, together with a defeat to Wolves, reads even worse whenever you discover none of these six opponents sit inside the highest six of the Premier League. This wasn’t a brutal run of fixtures – it is a downturn in efficiency ranges.

What’s fascinating, although, is that Villa’s defensive course of hasn’t utterly collapsed. Those six matches have averaged simply two targets per recreation. They’re not being blown away – they’re simply missing spark.

Villa’s latest video games counsel lower-scoring affairs.

The 5/2 with Sky Bet for Chelsea to win and underneath 3.5 targets neatly dovetails with these latest tendencies. It permits for a 1-0, 2-0 and even 2-1 away victory – outcomes that really feel way more believable than a goal-fest given Villa’s present limitations.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Brighton vs Arsenal, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Piero Hincapie has been fouled a minimum of eleven in 9 of his final 10 begins at left-back for Arsenal whenever you embody the super-sub concession with Sky Bet. A participant ticking alongside at a 90 per cent strike fee within the function brings a couple of consistency that provides an incredible funding alternative.

He’s an incredible salesman when it comes to fouls. Playing ready that he’s studying on the job means he will get himself into tough conditions when confronted with strain. His reply to them? Hit the deck underneath contact. It’s the modern-way.

This means to win fouls just isn’t new both. During his time at Bayer Leverkusen, he drew 1.4 fouls per 90 final season – a robust quantity throughout a giant pattern dimension. Brighton rank third for fouls this season within the Premier League (12.6 per recreation) so Hincape ought to discover many alternatives to showcase his foul drawing expertise. He is 2/1 with Sky Bet to win +2 fouls.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Fulham vs West Ham, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

If you are looking for a recreation that might get free this midweek, that is your spot.

Fulham matches have gotten a magnet for targets. Ten of their final 11 have rewarded over 2.5 backers. When their video games stretch, they actually stretch. And when that occurs, the totals have a tendency to comply with.

That makes the ‘over 2.5 targets and each groups to rating’ angle at Evens with Sky Bet significantly interesting.

West Ham arrive with real attacking risk of their very own. Crysencio Summerville and Jarrod Bowen present peace and incision from extensive and central areas, giving them the power to harm groups in transition or sustained strain.

Across their final 9 matches, West Ham are scoring at 1.7 targets per recreation. The anticipated targets information is even stronger at 2.05 per match. Those are usually not numbers you’d affiliate with a aspect priced up like relegation fodder, they’re creating probabilities at a top-half fee.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Manchester City have conceded 11 or extra photographs in every of their final seven Premier League matches, sending a median of 12.8 efforts per recreation in that run. That’s not classic Pep Guardiola management. Yet, the markets are sleeping on this development.

Even Wolves managed to hit the 11-shots mark at a pleasant value, which tells you this is not only a one-off blip – it is a sample. City are giving up territory, and whenever you quit territory within the Premier League, you quit photographs.

Across their final eight matches, Nottingham Forest have averaged a chunky 18.5 photographs per recreation. That’s large quantity. They’re taking part in with bravery, committing numbers ahead, and crucially for this guess, pulling the set off usually. That’s what the strain of relegation can do to a staff.

The odds for Forest to have 11 or extra photographs at 10/11 with Sky Bet charges as a really tempting wager.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Newcastle vs Manchester United, Wednesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Since getting back from harm, Harry Maguire has added a extra streetwise aspect to his recreation. He’s not simply hoofing it clear or standing tall – he is anticipating, positioning and inviting contact in methods which are seeing him win extra fouls than his long-term averages would counsel. The algorithms and markets are nonetheless catching up.

The numbers are compelling. He’s been fouled 11 instances throughout his final seven matches – an enormous common for a centre-back. Even extra spectacular, he is hit the two+ fouls gained line in 4 of these matches, together with the final three on the spin. That reveals consistency, one thing which is important when trusting a line of type in betting.

Against Newcastle, there’s each motive to count on comparable behaviour. Maguire will probably be drawn into duels, requested to step into midfield and cowl runners in behind. He’ll face direct challenges, and with Newcastle’s urgent model, fouls are virtually baked in.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Harry Maguire +2 fouls gained (5/2 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, Thursday 8pm

New Tottenham boss Igor Tudor likes his groups to play aggressively. His stints at Lazio and Juventus noticed spikes in fouls per 90, and that method has began right here in north London. Spurs have dedicated 31 fouls throughout the 2 video games since Tudor arrived.

Radu Dragusin has picked up the mantle of rashness within the absence of the suspended Cristian Romero. He’s made seven fouls in his final three matches. When cool heads are required within the state of affairs Spurs discover themselves in, Dragusin’s method is not precisely serving to calm the nerves.

Dragusin’s place, temperament and Tudor’s high-intensity defensive setup all level towards him choosing up a number of fouls but once more.

At 7/2 with Sky Bet for +2 fouls, the market just isn’t absolutely reflecting how usually Dragusin is being compelled into challenges and making them underneath Tudor’s system. Two or extra fouls on this conflict look nicely inside vary.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Radu Dragusin +2 fouls dedicated (7/2 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ Best Bet…

1pt treble on: Alex Scott +2 photographs, Harry Maguire +2 fouls gained & Radu Dragusin +2 fouls dedicated (33/1 with Sky Bet)