Nuggets vs. Timberwolves NBA playoffs preview: Why this could be the best first-round series

Welcome to Round 3 of Nuggets-Timberwolves.

One of the budding rivalries in the Western Conference will get one other chapter when Denver and Minnesota meet in the playoffs for the third time in the final 4 seasons. The Nuggets, winners of their final 12 video games, will personal homecourt benefit towards a Minnesota crew that limped to the common season end line with a 9-10 report.

The Nuggets beat Minnesota in 5 video games in the first spherical of the 2023 playoffs, however the Timberwolves exacted revenge in the 2024 semifinals, successful in seven video games.

This season, Denver (54-28) gained three of the 4 conferences towards Minnesota (49-33), together with an extra time traditional on Christmas Day that featured Nikola Jokić recording a triple-double of 56 factors, 16 rebounds and 15 assists and Anthony Edwards scoring 44 factors.

There is extra than simply on-court historical past. The basis of the Nuggets had been established by Tim Connelly, who’s now the Timberwolves’ president of basketball operations. And the Nuggets this season welcomed the return of Jon Wallace to their entrance workplace after he spent the previous three seasons with Connelly in Minnesota. Plus, Nuggets head coach David Adelman as soon as served as an assistant coach in Minnesota beneath his father, Rick.

As my colleague Jon Krawczynski mentioned: All nice fights deserve a trilogy. Here we go.

—Jason Quick

What is the largest storyline for my crew headed into the playoffs?

Jon Krawczynski, Timberwolves beat author: Do the Timberwolves have a swap to flip? Coming off of two straight Western Conference finals appearances and bringing again everybody however Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Timberwolves talked in coaching camp about taking the last step to the NBA Finals.

I believed we’d see an ultra-motivated, locked-in group in the common season, one which was out to atone for a 4-1 wipeout at the arms of the Thunder final May. Instead, we noticed a crew that was largely complacent all season lengthy, showing to deal with these 82 video games as beneath them.

The query they are going to reply in this series is have they got a swap to flip? Or are they a crew in decline?

They will want Anthony Edwards taking part in at his two-way best after mailing in the protection on too many nights in the common season. He has all the time been a playoff riser and will enter the postseason as wholesome as he is been in weeks after getting a while to relaxation an aching proper knee.

Julius Randle slayed loads of his earlier playoff demons final season and can be wholesome and rested, as will Jaden McDaniels after lacking six video games with a bone bruise in his left knee.

The Wolves imagine they’ve the expertise to beat anybody. At occasions this season they’ve in all probability believed in themselves an excessive amount of. Now it is time to see what they’re made from.

Jason Quick, masking the Nuggets: Can the Nuggets defend persistently?

The Nuggets have the NBA’s high offense, however a backside third protection. However, throughout his 12-game successful streak to shut the season, Denver coach David Adelman thought the Nuggets protection outlined the streak.

“We flipped defensively at some point in all these games, meaning we’ve been inconsistent all year with that,” Adelman mentioned. “At some point, you have to sit down and guard, and that leads to what we are really good at… fastbreak points.”

A think about the Nuggets’ defensive efforts will be the availability of maybe their best perimeter defender, wing Peyton Watson, who has battled hamstring accidents this season. Watson hasn’t performed since April 1, when he aggravated his proper hamstring. The similar hamstring precipitated him to overlook 19 video games earlier in the season. Watson has began on court docket exercises however there Nuggets haven’t mentioned if, or when, they count on him to return.

Who or what’s the largest X-factor for my crew?

Krawczynski: Ayo Dosunmu.

The midseason acquisition has been every little thing the Wolves could have hoped for and extra. Before they obtained him from Chicago, they had been severely brief on ball-handlers and shot creators. Dosunmu has are available in and given them a really succesful handler who immediately turned considered one of the crew’s best downhill scorers.

Dosunmu’s means to get out in transition has been a shot in the arm for the offense. His perimeter protection, whereas inferior to Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s, has been an enormous improve. He is taking part in for a contract this summer season and at last on a superb crew after 5 years in Chicago, and that starvation has been nice for a Wolves crew that has usually regarded complacent.

Dosunmu is averaging 14.1 factors, 4.2 rebounds and taking pictures 41 p.c from 3 since becoming a member of the Timberwolves. The Wolves will want all of that go-go juice and extra to provide Edwards the scoring assist he’ll want towards Denver’s terrific offense.

fast: Tim Hardaway Jr.

There is one thing about Minneapolis that brings out the best in Hardaway.

In the first two matchups this season, each in Minneapolis, Hardaway ignited comebacks from halftime deficits with third-quarter explosions. In the season’s third sport, Hardaway went 5-for-5 from 3 in the third, serving to flip a 65-57 halftime deficit right into a 127-114 win. Then in the second assembly, Hardaway had 23 factors, 13 of them in the third quarter, to flip a 65-60 deficit and lead Denver to a 123-112 win.

If Minneapolis followers assume they’ve seen this earlier than, they’re proper. In faculty at Michigan, he had two memorable performances at Williams Arena — hitting 4 3-pointers in the opening 5 minutes en path to 22 factors as a freshman, then a 21-point sport in No. 5 Michigan’s win over No. 9 Gophers in 2013.

Over his 13-year profession, Hardaway averaged 16.6 factors towards Minnesota, his highest common towards any crew. This yr, he averaged 19.8 factors and shot 61 p.c from the discipline and 55.6 p.c from 3 (15-of-27).

“I think it’s just Big Ten country,” Hardaway mentioned. “I mean, even when I was with Michigan, we played at The Barn and we had some of our best games there. For me, it’s just the city alone, the vibes, the energy, the sand. It feels good there.”

What is the Achilles heel or largest concern for my crew?

Krawczynski: Defensive rebounding.

The Timberwolves are nineteenth in the league in defensive rebounding share. Their incapability to shut possessions on protection means they routinely give their opponents a number of probabilities to attain. They completely can not do this towards the Nuggets, who will feast on them with kickout 3s if Jokić and Aaron Gordon can management the offensive glass.

Denver is just twenty fourth in offensive rebounding share, however that’s of little solace to the Timberwolves. When they’re at their worst, they flip the ball over and get crushed on the offensive glass, dropping the possession sport and getting run out of the constructing.

To beat the Nuggets, particularly of their buildings, the Wolves must care for the ball and shut possessions after one shot. They are a REALLY good defensive crew in the halfcourt towards the first shot. It’s after that nice first reply once they run into actual issues.

fast: Rim safety.

Adelman mentioned the Nuggets’ on-ball protection will be key, as a result of the crew’s biggest weak point is the means to defend at the rim. The Nuggets’ facilities — Nikola Jokić and Jonas Valančiūnas — are vertically challenged, and the crew’s best leapers — Watson, Spencer Jones and Gordon — are both injured or ended the season having their minutes monitored.

“Most of our issues are usually when whoever is on the ball gets beat,” Adelman mentioned. “We know that rim protection for us isn’t great. We don’t have great size right now with Peyton out, Spence out and Aaron on a minutes restriction.”

That places a microscope on the protection of perimeter gamers Jamal Murray, Christian Braun and Cam Johnson, and whether or not they can cease the aggressive forays of Anthony Edwards.

“When you get beat off the dribble, now we are in rotations, and now we have a tradition true center that is not built to be in rotations like that.”

Biggest purpose for optimism for my crew?

Krawczynski: They are as wholesome as they have been in additional than a month. Edwards missed 10 of 12 video games down the stretch with a balky proper knee, however all indicators are that he’ll be able to roll now that the playoffs are upon us. McDaniels is 100% after a bone bruise in his left knee, Naz Reid’s bothersome shoulder damage seems to be enhancing and Gobert and Julius Randle each obtained some a lot wanted day off in the last three video games after they locked in the sixth seed.

They additionally get the full week off to gear up for the playoffs, quite than should play in the Play-In Tournament. In every of the final two seasons, the Wolves teaching employees has used that week to arrange the Wolves for his or her first spherical opponent. It resulted in a 4-0 sweep of Phoenix in 2024 and the 4-1 dealing with of the Lakers final yr.

Quick: The Nuggets all season prioritized being recent for the playoffs, and they’ll largely be rested due to resting most of their starters for the final two video games. In addition, the end-of-season schedule broke for the Nuggets — that they had three highway video games over the final month, fast journeys to Phoenix, Utah and San Antonio — permitting them to recalibrate and refresh at residence.

Series Prediction

Krawczynski: Timberwolves in 7. They will be the determined underdog in this series, and they need to be. It’s been an up-and-down common season that didn’t meet the lofty expectations they set for themselves. But they’re wholesome and rested… and so they have Anthony Edwards, a Denver participant has by no means been capable of deal with. Most importantly, they imagine they will beat the Nuggets as a result of they’ve completed it earlier than. I believe this series will be an absolute massacre from two groups which have performed one another a lot over the final 4 years. A playoff rubber match. I am unable to wait.

fast: Nuggets in 6. Why? Nikola Jokić.

The Wolves have not proven they will cease the world’s best participant. In the first sport this season, he had 25 factors, 19 rebounds and 10 assists. The second sport: 12-27-11. Third sport: 56-16-15 (!!!). And the fourth sport: 35-13-9. To complement Jokić, Murray has had video games of 43 and 35 and the solely time Minnesota beat Denver this season, Gordon missed it due to damage.