NBA Playoffs odds, picks for Pistons-Cavaliers, Thunder-Lakers Game 4s on May 11
The high convention seeds are in management within the NBA Playoffs, with the Oklahoma City Thunder trying for one other sweep and the Detroit Pistons aiming to take a commanding 3-1 sequence lead Monday. The Thunder, the No. 1 seed within the Western Conference, swept the Phoenix Suns in Round 1, and now they’re seeking to do the identical to the Los Angeles Lakers within the convention semifinals. Detroit, the highest seed within the Eastern Conference, must rebound from a 116-109 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 and must win on the highway to take management of the sequence.
The Cavaliers are 3.5-point favorites at residence, and the Over/Under for whole factors is 213.5 within the newest NBA Playoffs odds at FanDuel. The Thunder are favored by 10.5 points and the whole is ready at 214.5. Kevin Huerter (adductor) and Caris LeVert (heel) are listed as questionable for the Pistons, whereas Cleveland has no important accidents. The Thunder will stay with out Jalen Williams (hamstring) whereas Luka Doncic (hamstring) will even miss Game 4 for Los Angeles.
We’ve recognized the perfect NBA bets from Monday’s two Game 4 matchups with steering from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NBA recreation 10,000 occasions. The mannequin runs these simulations, then determines its high money line picks, spread picks and whole picks, in addition to NBA participant props. The mannequin has returned effectively over $10,000 in betting revenue for $100 gamers on its top-rated NBA picks over the previous eight-plus seasons.
The mannequin entered the second spherical of the 2026 NBA playoffs with a scorching 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA unfold picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting recommendation at sportsbooks and on betting apps may have seen enormous returns.
Now we’re breaking down the mannequin’s high picks for Monday’s video games, together with a pair of Over/Under picks and two player prop bets. Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bettors may also mix two or extra of the mannequin’s greatest bets right into a parlay bet at FanDuel for a doubtlessly higher revenue.
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NBA Playoffs picks, greatest bets for Monday, May 11
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers Over 213.5
- Jalen Duren Over 13.5 factors
- Thunder vs. Lakers Over 214.5
- Shai Gilegous-Alexander Over 35.5 factors + assists
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Over 213.5
Both teams have top-10 offenses, with the Cavs averaging nearly 120 points per game (third in NBA) and the Pistons averaging almost 118. Detroit is far better defensively, but the teams combine to allow 224 per game. The total has gone Over in four of Cleveland’s last six games, which includes Saturday’s victory (225 points), and the Cavs are 46-46 on Over/Unders this season. The Pistons are 14-11 to the Over following a loss. The SportsLine model has Over 213.5 hitting in 55.7% of its simulations.
Jalen Duren Over 13.5 points
Duren hasn’t had a lot of scoring success in the postseason, but he has been in some foul trouble and his shooting has been off. He averaged 19.5 points in the regular season and comes off one of his best shooting games of the playoffs. Duren hit five of eight shots (62.5%) in scoring 11 points in Game 3 after shooting under 40% in the first two games. He shot 65% from the field in the regular season, and the SportsLine model pegs him for 17.2 points.
Thunder vs. Lakers Over 214.5
These are two of the league’s best shooting teams, and the Over has hit in four of the past six meetings between them. OKC has gone Over in five of its past six and is 48-41 to the Over for the season and 25-18 O/U on the road. The Lakers are 22-19 to the Over as underdogs this season, including 9-8 O/U as home dogs. The SportsLine model has this one going Over 214.5 points in 59.7% of simulations, earning a ‘B’ grade, with the projected total going above 220.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 35.5 points + assists
There’s not much to say about SGA that hasn’t been said, but the reigning league MVP and current favorite for this year’s award (-165 at FanDuel) hasn’t needed to dominate this series. Still, he’s averaging 28.3 points and 7.0 assists in the postseason and is capable of dropping 35 or 40 points at any time. With a series sweep and some time off within their grasp, he will be motivated to finish the job. Gilgeous-Alexander went well over this total in three of four games in the last series. The model projects him for 38.3 points + assists.
