Men’s March Madness: Predictions, previews for every Sweet 16 game Friday
The first half of the Elite Eight is ready with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punching their tickets Thursday. Who may be a part of them within the regional finals of the 2026 males’s NCAA match?
ESPN faculty basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their picks for every Sweet 16 game Friday and break down every workforce’s keys to advancing.
All instances Eastern.
7:10 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: Duke 73-71
Medcalf’s prediction: Duke 77-70
How St. John’s can advance to the Elite Eight: The focus of Rick Pitino’s game plan in opposition to Duke will clearly be centered on slowing down Cameron Boozer. St. John’s has one of many elite defenses in faculty basketball, however what the Red Storm haven’t got is the type of size and athleticism that has troubled Boozer at instances. Much of the accountability will fall on the person defensive talents of Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchellwith the latter in all probability tasked with chasing Isaiah Evans within the half courtroom.
Offensively, the Red Storm must sustain their improved 3-point capturing. Before the NCAA match, they hadn’t made double-digit 3s in a game since Jan. 10. They’ve now accomplished it in each match video games, together with 11 in opposition to Kansas.
How Duke can advance to Elite Eight: Duke has two areas of benefit on every workforce: Boozer and his protection. When the Blue Devils turned up the warmth defensively in opposition to TCU within the second spherical and commenced taking part in by Boozer on the offensive finish, they started to dominate the Horned Frogs and fully modified the game. Boozer is the best participant on the courtroom every time he performs, though Pitino, a Hall of Fame coach, and Big East Player of the Year Ejiofor will hope to sluggish him down.
Duke’s protection, the top-ranked unit in adjusted defensive effectivity at KenPom, has only a few weaknesses — however the Red Storm aren’t constructed within the ideally suited vogue to trigger constant issues for the Blue Devils. They’ve shot the ball higher just lately, however they’re removed from a constant 3-point capturing workforce, and so they rely closely on offensive rebounds and free throws. Duke does an unbelievable job of limiting opponents in each areas. — Borzello
7:35 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Michigan 92-83
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan 90-80
How Alabama can advance to the Elite Eight: It’s not a secret, however Alabama might want to make a barrage of 3s to have any probability of staying shut with Michigan. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point makes an attempt per game and 3-point try price. They made 19 3s in a second-round win over Texas Tech. That has to proceed in opposition to Michigan, as it is going to be extraordinarily tough to attain constantly on the rim in opposition to Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr.. Defensively, it is going to be an uphill battle. Alabama has given up large scoring efforts to good groups on a number of events, and the Crimson Tide rank in the midst of the pack within the SEC in defensive effectivity.
This game goes to characteristic loads of factors and loads of tempo. Alabama will not again down from a operating game with Michigan, and a shootout may play into the Tide’s arms.
How Michigan can advance to Elite Eight: When Michigan leans into its strengths — its frontcourt, measurement and skill to dominate the paint at each ends of the courtroom — there are few groups within the nation able to competing with the Wolverines for 40 minutes. Mara is a power on the rim defensively, and is turning into a extra constant possibility on offense, and (*16*) have proven he can take over video games on offense. Alabama would not have the talent or expertise up entrance to match Michigan, and would not provide a lot rim safety, rating close to the underside of the SEC in block share.
The different key for the Wolverines will probably be whether or not Roddy Gayle Jr.. and Nimari Burnett can decelerate star Alabama guard Labaron Philon Jr.., who had 29 factors within the first spherical and 12 assists within the second spherical. He’s able to carrying the Crimson Tide. — Borzello
9:45 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: UConn 68-64
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn 70-65
How Michigan State can advance to Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate probably the most headlines through the NCAA match, however teaching matchups are equally — if no more — impactful. During a tenure that started in 1995, Tom Izzo has developed an uncanny skill to zero in on an opposing workforce’s prime gamers and create issues for them. That’s the Spartans’ ticket to a different Elite Eight.
Izzo’s major mission in opposition to UConn is to restrict Tarris Reed Jr..’s influence on the game. The Huskies are a distinct workforce when he is a dominant presence within the put up. If Reed is grabbing offensive rebounds and giving them an abundance of second-chance alternatives, Michigan State will probably be in a troublesome spot. The excellent news for the Spartans is that they’re connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point makes an attempt and capitalizing on second-chance alternatives with a No. 10 nationwide rating in offensive rebounding price. It will probably be key for them to hit extra 3s, prolong UConn’s protection and create extra paths to the basket for Jeremy Fears Jr.. & Co. They have to provide UConn a purpose to protect on the perimeter — if the Spartans simply permit the Huskies to take a seat within the lane, problem photographs across the rim and seize rebounds, Michigan State may lose.
Izzo has been on this place earlier than — in opposition to higher groups — and gained. His expertise will matter in a matchup in opposition to Dan Hurley.
How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Izzo, UConn should present up because the top-notch defensive outfit that held UCLA to only a 39% clip contained in the arc within the second spherical. The Huskies’ win over the Bruins served as a reminder that they could be a nice defensive workforce once they need to be. In the Big Ten match, UCLA had produced 132 factors per 100 possessions in a win over Michigan State. In the spherical of 32, the Bruins — who performed with out main scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) — scored solely 57 factors, their second-lowest complete of the season. UCLA star Donovan Dent had 9 assists but in addition completed 2-for-9 capturing with a pair of turnovers. That’s the identical consideration UConn might want to give Fears. When he is comfy, Michigan State’s offense soars. The Huskies cannot let that occur.
On offense, Braylon Mullins might be an X issue. Reed had a double-double in opposition to UCLA however not the historic numbers he put up in opposition to Furman within the first spherical (31 factors, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-high 27 factors in opposition to the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr.. scoring two factors mixed. If Reed and Karaban can create a balanced inside-outside assault, Michigan State should discover a option to disrupt that, which may give Mullins — who’s averaging 14.5 factors in two NCAA match video games — extra freedom and alternatives to make performs and create off the dribble or on off-ball screens.
The Huskies have a large number of choices to attain, and so long as most of them are efficient, they will get again to the Elite Eight. — Medcalf
10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Iowa State 67-65
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa State 74-68
How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa State, Tennessee should play the identical disciplined protection that stopped Virginia within the ultimate minutes of Sunday’s second-round game. That activity begins with Felix Okparawho had 4 blocks in opposition to the Cavaliers and altered different photographs, together with a late drive by Thijs De Ridder that Okpara blocked throughout Virginia’s comeback try. Opposing gamers had made solely 30% of their photographs across the rim in opposition to Okpara getting into Sunday’s game, per Synergy Sports knowledge. He’ll have to guard the rim in opposition to Iowa State, which had a major benefit in paint factors in opposition to Kentucky (34-20) — however he will not must do it alone.
Tennessee has the personnel to deal with every one-on-one matchup defensively. The Vols can guard at every spot. They should put strain on Tamin Lipseysharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jeffersonif he performs, to win. That defensive effort coupled with standout performances from Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament could be the components for a Tennessee journey to the Elite Eight.
How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or with out Jefferson, Iowa State may have the identical blueprint in opposition to Tennessee: Move the ball to seek out the perfect shot on offense, power turnovers with defensive strain and rating on quick breaks. Although they did not have Jefferson, who’s a game-time decision Because of an ankle damage, the Cyclones pressured 20 turnovers of their second-round win over Kentucky. Playing by Lipsey — who completed with 26 factors, 10 assists and solely three turnovers in opposition to Kentucky — the Cyclones registered 150 factors per 100 possessions and made 63% of their photographs after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsey’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1 or higher.
Gillespie and Ament mixed for 5 turnovers in Tennessee’s second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State can strain that duo into the identical errors Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers mixed) made for Kentucky, even when Jefferson sits out one other game. That’s how the Cyclones can advance. — Medcalf
