Luis Severino Sets the Tone

There’s paint on the area, bunting on the metal, and hoops in our feels. It’s Opening Day little question. Well, the third one, at the very least.

The most iconic trapping of Opening Day is the fleet of excellent starting pitchers who takes the mound. Each staff sends their greatest, or at the very least, their healthiest. For some, it is the reigning Cy Young winner. For others, it is a precocious prospect. These starters, true to their title, carry the burden of the new season on their shoulders.

Few carry a burden larger than Luis Severino‘s.

The Athletics are on the cusp. They rank twentieth in FanGraphs Depth Charts projected WAR and enter Opening Day with a couple of 16% likelihood of creating the postseason, per our playoff odds. It appears unlikely that that is their yr, however they’re certainly younger and proficient and rising. It would not be too shocking in the event that they stayed in the playoff image effectively into September.

If they do, it will be due to their lineup. It’s good. They completed tenth by wRC+ final yr and have returned largely the identical group. In his rookie season, Nick Kurtz made a case for being the sport’s subsequent nice slugger. Shea Langeliers completed with the second-highest wRC+ by a catcher at 131. Brent Rooker notched his third straight 30-plus residence run season. Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom every performed effectively sufficient to earn early-career extensions, and Lawrence Butler received one the yr earlier than.

Our Depth Charts challenge the A’s batters 14th total by WAR, however they’re lower than a win from breaching the high 10, proper in that subsequent tier behind the Dodgers and the handful of actually nice lineups all through baseball. It’s a playoff-worthy group.

The problem? The A’s are lopsided:

Their pitching is dangerous. They completed final yr in the backside 5 by WAR, and we challenge them no higher in 2026: Their starters ranked 24th in our positional energy rankings, whereas their bullpen ranked 26th. I do not know that I’d name them horrible — they’re nonetheless a transparent rung or two above the Rockies — however there’s not a lot there to differentiate them.

To be honest, it is troublesome to challenge teams of pitchers over a season, as accidents and small samples spur attrition. The backside of the A’s workers would not look a lot completely different than the backside of many staffs in the mushy center of our projections. I might completely purchase Luis Morales having a breakout season, identical to I might purchase Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale being respectable backend guys. And, you realize, bullpens are bizarre, generally in ways in which work in your favor! Still, there is not somebody who’s an apparent candidate to publish above-average worth and carry this group to that subsequent, bare-minimum degree.

Except possibly Severino. He’s achieved it earlier than.

Severino was as soon as an enormous deal, though practically a decade in the past. He was a extremely touted prospect, and a top-five pitcher by WAR in 2017 and 2018. He had the easy, traditional arsenal of a man with large time stuff: a 98-mph four-seam fastball, a wipeout slider, and a changeup simply to maintain you trustworthy. Nobody threw tougher, and few struck out extra batters. In 2018, he was solely 24.

Then, as this stuff go, he received harm. Severino missed nearly all of 2019 with a shoulder harm. Then I missed all of 2020 and most of 2021 with Tommy John surgical procedure. He pitched fairly effectively for half a season in 2022 earlier than being sidelined with a lat pressure, then pitched fairly poorly for a half a season the following yr whereas coping with the lat pressure and an indirect pressure. He threw simply 209.1 innings over 5 years.

Severino signed a prove-it cope with the Mets earlier than the 2024 season, and he proved to be… effectively, ok to sign a three-year deal with the A’s that December. It was a shocking transfer as a result of the A’s are notoriously stingy. But it was additionally form of an ideal transfer as a result of the A’s wanted somebody who might doubtlessly be a frontline starter to steer the workers. And there simply aren’t many pitchers accessible in the A’s value vary who’ve confirmed able to posting five-win seasons, particularly ones prepared to play in a minor league ballpark.

That minor league ballpark, after all, was an enormous a part of Severino’s first season in Sacramento. He actually did not like pitching there, and he told TheAthletic as a lot in June.

“It’s not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun. There’s no air conditioning there, too. It’s really tough.”

Now, I’m not going to name Severino a large number. I’m positive he actually did not like pitching in Sacramento. When I provided that quote, I had a 6.79 ERA in 10 begins at residence and a 3.04 ERA in eight begins on the street. That’s an enormous cut up! But Severino additionally had a 4.36 FIP at residence and a 4.34 FIP on the street over the identical stretch — his elementary capability wasn’t a lot completely different. As the season progressed, so did he; I’ve posted a 4.26 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 5 begins at residence from July onward, in comparison with a 3.00 ERA and three.20 FIP on the street. I’m prepared to chalk up a lot of Severino’s early-season residence efficiency to poor luck: His .342 BABIP and 58.2% LOB charge had been bottom five amongst starters by way of June. That appeared to self-correct as the season wore on.

In different phrases, sure, Severino was typically worse at residence, and we’d anticipate him and the remainder of the Athletics’ workers to be worse whereas working in opposition to what ended up being the fifth-highest park factor in the majors final yr. It’s a minor league park, it is very heat, and the wind blows out — it is not straightforward to pitch there. But there’s possibly an inclination to magnify the extremity of Sutter Health Park. What we noticed in 2025 was nowhere near Coors Field, and I believe I’d classify it as being extra of a nuisance, moderately than a barrier to a season of high quality pitching.

No, Severino’s merely respectable efficiency in 2025 was his personal doing. I’ve posted the lowest strikeout (17.6%) and whiff (18.3%) charges of his profession. It’s a part of a years-long downward development in both class.

Why?

An amazing pitcher who declines after harm is usually coping with some form of velocity dip. That’s form of the case with Severino, but additionally probably not. Again, he was as soon as the hardest-throwing beginning pitcher in the sport, averaging 97.6 mph on his four-seam fastball in 2018. He was all the way down to 96.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2025. That’s a significant distinction, however he nonetheless boasted considered one of the 15 quickest four-seamers in baseball final yr. In truth, Severino’s whiff charge on the pitch jumped from 20.2% in 2018 to 21.9% in 2025 (though nonetheless shy of his 24.0% mark from 2017).

But he is not simply throwing four-seamers anymore:

Severino now has a up to date arsenal. He nonetheless throws loads of fastballs, however a few of them are actually sinkers to righties and cutters to lefties. These are usually a bit slower. If we have a look at his common velocity on all fastballs, he was really all the way down to 95.4 mph, or 2.4 mph decrease than 2018; his complete fastball whiff charge final yr was simply 16.7%. Severino additionally ditched his sharp, biting slider in favor of a slower, looping sweeper. The pitch produced a mere 22.8% whiff charge in 2025. It’s nonetheless a great pitch total, and it does appear to provide poor contact (specifically popups and weak fly balls). But it is simply not “2018 Luis Severino 37.6% whiff rate” good.

Now, possibly these tradeoffs are price it. It’s not totally honest to match Severino in 2025 to himself from seven years in the past. It’s attainable that persevering with to throw the identical three-pitch combine would not have the identical impact immediately because it did when he had that further, tip-top gear. But the sum complete of those modifications is a slower, extra contact-oriented strategy. Severino final yr struggled to get forward in counts and end off batters.

If that is who he’s going ahead, that is effective. He stays an average-ish pitcher price giving 30 begins a season to simply about any rotation. Still, I am unable to assist however really feel there’s room for one thing extra. He throws exhausting, he has good command, and he is nonetheless Luis Severino. He regarded electrical for the Dominican Republic at the World Baseball Classic, pumping upper-90s fastballs and dominating the fearsome Team USA lineup.

What will we get in 2026? Well, we’re about to seek out out. Severino will start his eleventh season in the majors Friday at age 32. The odds of him posting one other ace-level season are rising longer, however he would not be the first and even the very unlikely pitcher to have a late-career resurgence. If he can discover that subsequent degree once more, the A’s are positive to comply with. Such is the magnificence — and burden — of Opening Day.