Horses for Courses: While Scottie Scheffler might win, find value in Johnny Keefer’s ball-striking

After

Ryan Fox‘s gutsy efficiency at The Open Championship to choose up his first main title, we are able to formally say that main season is behind us. Now, we push ahead by means of the remainder of the season with our eyes set on the upcoming FedExCup Playoffs.

Before we get there, the PGA TOUR makes a cease in Blaine, Minnesota, for the 3M Open.

TPC Twin Cities is one in every of a number of TPC venues on the 2026 PGA TOUR schedule, and very like its counterparts, this Arnold Palmer-designed golf course would require sturdy tee-to-green play, particularly elite ball-striking.

The 7,431-yard, par-71 course is without doubt one of the longest par-71 programs on the PGA TOUR schedule. The first issue to think about is the 15 holes that convey water into play, whether or not that comes off the tee or on strategy. Most notably, the drivable par-4 sixteenth gap rewards aggression, however inaccuracy shall be punished.

Along with contending with water, golfers should take care of a basic Parkland-style golf course that includes tree-lined fairways that place a premium on driving accuracy. The tough can also be comparatively thick, measuring round 4 inches.

The one reprieve for golfers this week is that the fairways are comparatively vast and the greens are on the bigger aspect.

TPC Twin Cities is a course that rewards shot-makers. Golfers who can go on the market and strike the ball with one of the best of them ought to rise to the highest of the leaderboard.

Sure, making birdies shall be essential, and birdie-or-better proportion shall be an enormous statistic this week. However, which golfers are going to dominate off the tee and on strategy, particularly when attacking these greens?

The greens aren’t overly tough like many golfers noticed final week at The Open Championship, however do not be fooled by their measurement. Golfers cannot hit any a part of the inexperienced and count on to have a reputable probability at making birdie. Attacking the right aspect of the shelf will give them one of the best alternative to transform their possibilities.

That mentioned, listed here are the golfers who received have essentially the most strokes ball placing over the past 36 rounds (Data by way of Betsperts Golf):

• 1.
  

  Scottie Scheffler

• 2. Johnny Keefer
• 3. Jordan Smith
• 4. Tom Kim
• 5. Jackson Suber
• 6. Ben Kohles

Scottie Scheffler at +275 by way of DraftKings Sportsbook is an attention-grabbing golfer this week. He hasn’t received a PGA TOUR occasion since The American Express in late January, and it feels just like the window is closing for Scheffler to choose up his second victory of the season. Add in the truth that that is one in every of his lowest costs of the season, and it makes us query if we ought to be on him or not.

Realistically, there is not a lot value in betting Scheffler at +275however we’ve to speak about how outstanding his sport has been over the previous few months.

For somebody who hasn’t received a golf event since January, all he has finished is rack up top-five finishes. He had a stretch from the Masters by means of the Cadillac Championship the place he completed runner-up in each occasion. He has additionally added 4 extra top-four finishes since then.

His one main misstep got here on the Genesis Scottish Open, the place he missed the minimize and produced his worst strategy efficiency because the Arnold Palmer Invitational. However, he returned to The Open and was throwing darts in all places.

Scheffler will in all probability go on to win this golf event regardless of this being his first look at TPC Twin Cities. Even his top-five worth of -154 is a bit out of my playable vary.

He stands out as the golfer greatest suited for this course, however he actually is not one of the best value.

So, if you wish to look past Scheffler, there are a few choices. You can play the winner-without market, which excludes Scheffler totally, or you possibly can go value looking.

To find value, I’d begin by golfers who could make birdies in bunches.

When Kurt Kitayama (+2500) received this event, he performed actually good golf throughout, however his victory was propelled by a third-round 60. He adopted that efficiency with a final-round 65.

If golfers need to have success right here, they should go low.

Another factor I seen about TPC Twin Cities is its similarities to a different golf course on the rotation: PGA National.

While PGA National is positioned in Florida and contains a drastically totally different local weather, it’s one other parkland-style golf course with water in play on virtually each gap. It additionally options tree-lined fairways with beneficiant touchdown areas, however loads of hazard when golfers miss these fairways.

PGA National additionally has massive greens with selective undulation and shelving. It is one other shotmaker’s golf course that rewards golfers who gentle it up with their ball placing.

A number of different programs that remind me of TPC Twin Cities are TPC Deere Run, the Pete Dye Stadium Course used for The American Express, and TPC Craig Ranch.

Here are the golfers who’ve received essentially the most strokes over the past 24 rounds at these programs:

Johnny Keefer to win (+5900) | Johnny Keefer, First-Round Leader (+6500)

Of the golfers who’ve gained essentially the most strokes ball placing, Johnny Keefer (+5900) presents essentially the most value for somebody attempting to take down Scheffler.

While he did not have his greatest stuff at The Open Championship, I can forgive him. He has now recorded a missed minimize, a T79, a T39 and a T59 by means of his first 4 main championship appearances.

I’d relatively deal with a few of his different outcomes that present extra hope when backing Keefer, akin to his T3 at Memorial Park or his T8 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, which was performed at TPC Craig Ranch.

In each of these occasions, he excelled off the tee. He additionally produced dominant strategy numbers.

One factor I’ve seen about Keefer is that his complete event is dictated by how effectively he drives the ball. When his driver is on and he’s hitting fairways, he’s harmful.

At a course like TPC Twin Cities, he should not have many points discovering the fairways. That permits him to flex his muscle mass elsewhere, particularly together with his strategy play.

Since the start of May, Keefer has gained strokes on strategy in seven of the 9 occasions he has performed. The two occasions the place he failed to realize strokes on strategy occurred to be two of the three majors he performed throughout that stretch.

Making the bounce from the Korn Ferry Tour straight to the PGA TOUR is just not at all times a straightforward transition. Keefer received a number of instances on the Korn Ferry Tour final season, proving he is aware of shut out golf tournaments.

He hasn’t actually been in competition but on the PGA TOUR, however there have been sufficient little indicators alongside the best way to indicate that he’s nearer than many individuals in all probability consider.

At +5900, there’s room for error. Keefer might be not a golfer I need to play in the position markets due to his volatility, however he has spike potential and has already confirmed insane that he can win.

If we are able to get him to spike in the opening spherical, we are able to money a first-round chief ticket or at the very least give ourselves a reputable probability. From there, we simply want him to place collectively three extra actually good rounds to choose up his first PGA TOUR victory.

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