Boxing experts make predictions, picks for Garcia vs. Benn

Ryan Garcia places his WBC welterweight title on the road towards Conor Benn at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday (Paramount+, 8 p.m. ET).

Garcia (25-2, 20 KOs) began his profession with 23 consecutive victories, however he’s 2-2 with one no-contest in his previous 5 fights. He defeated Devin Haney in April 2024, however the victory was later overturned after Garcia tested positive for the banned substance ostarine. He misplaced a call to Rolando “Rolly” Romero a yr later earlier than rebounding with a dominant efficiency towards Mario Barrios in February to win the title.

Benn (25-1, 14 KOs) is coming off a one-sided victory over former champion Regis Prograis in April. Benn moved right down to a 150-pound catchweight for that combat after competing principally at middleweight in recent times. He twice tested positive for the banned substance clomifene in 2022 and was suspended in 2023. After being cleared to combat within the U.S., Benn had two fights earlier than returning to the U.Okay. for two bouts towards longtime rival Chris Eubank Jr.

Benn has mentioned he plans to maneuver as much as 160 kilos or increased after this combat, making the 147-pound restrict towards Garcia an vital a part of the matchup.

Can Garcia use his pace and quickness to land his highly effective left hand? Or can Benn take away that weapon by getting inside, attacking from completely different angles and making use of stress from the opening bell?

Two former champions, a title contender and a star boxing fan weigh in on the matchup and make their picks.

Editor’s word: Content has been edited for brevity and readability.

Raul Marquez, boxing analyst, retired former junior middleweight champion and member of the Nevada Boxing Hall of Fame

The matchup

Ryan has fought approach higher opposition in comparison with Conor. Benn has fought Chris Eubank Jr., a Regis Prograis on the best way down and Chris Algieri. I imply, that is who Conor Benn’s beat. Ryan has been in there with approach higher fighters like Mario Barrios, Devin Haney, Oscar Duarte and Gervonta “Tank” Davis.

For Ryan to win the combat, he is bought to make use of his pace, his footwork and management the space, combat a really disciplined combat. By that, I imply not getting drawn into Conor’s combat. I feel Conor, he will need to work, man. He’s going to need to discover a solution to get inside. It’s going to be exhausting, however you have to give Ryan plenty of head motion, plenty of feints, tag him from completely different angles, however hold coming ahead. Conor will not be going to win the combat from the skin. He’s bought to get in there, however will he get in there? I do not know. He might get hit by the left hook-right hand by Ryan.

How does Garcia win the combat?

Ryan wins the combat by controlling the tempo and the space, mid-long vary together with his lengthy jab, touchdown a one-two (left jab, proper cross). And when Conor is coming in, go together with both the correct hand-left hook or the left hook-right hand, both one. If Ryan catches him coming in, I feel Round 6, Round 7, center rounds, Conor will get knocked out.

But Ryan needs to be disciplined, and that comes with the expertise that he has from combating guys like Duarte, Rolando Romero which might be stress fighters. Duarte is a stress fighter. So is Barrios. “Tank” Davis, too. Because of these fights, Ryan has the expertise to be affected person, draw the man in and catch him coming in together with his lengthy attain. Sooner or later, he’ll be capable to time Conor and catch him with a mix. He’s bought energy in each palms. In previous fights, we have seen that he is developed extra of a proper hand. So, it is not only a left hook; you have to look out for the correct hand, too. So so long as Ryan stays centered and disciplined, he’ll win the combat.

For Ryan, the bottom line is to not get right into a firefight early on. Conor goes to attempt to drag him into a complete toe-to-toe match. Ryan has bought to choose his spots when he desires to get right into a firefight and when he desires to combat from the skin. As lengthy as he does that, he will be fantastic. If Conor will get in there, simply maintain him. I imply, it’s a tactic and folks use it.

How does Benn win the combat?

I feel Conor will come out explosive. He fights together with his feelings and he talks so much, and I feel he will placed on a present early on. He’s going to come back out throwing. He’s going to attempt to determine a solution to get inside and pressure Ryan right into a toe-to-toe match. Bully him, seize him, headbutts, elbows, simply go for broke. He has to combat that form of combat; there isn’t any approach he wins from the skin. He’s bought to be in there and go to work each minute of each spherical. Can he do this? He would possibly be capable to do this for three, 4, 5 rounds, however due to the load chopping and the truth that he hasn’t been within the 147-pound weight class for so lengthy, clearly the longer the combat goes, the tougher it’s going to be for him.

Ryan also can combat inside, so if he does, Conor can go to the physique and assault at angles. Don’t sq. up. Make positive you do not stand proper in entrance of Ryan within the line of fireside. Don’t be so headfirst; assault to the correct and to the left. Try to push Ryan again. It’s exhausting to do, particularly with an skilled man like Ryan.

When the bell rings, Conor has bought to be on his toes quick. He cannot be flat-footed. He’s bought to be quick on his toes, facet to facet, plenty of head motion, plenty of feints, and go to work from completely different angles. But how lengthy can he do this? And Ryan might catch him on the within with uppercuts, as a result of Ryan throws some good uppercuts, after which the left hook. So, I simply do not see how Conor will get the job performed because the combat goes on. Can he shock Ryan early on? Yes.

Prediction: Ryan wins within the center rounds by knockout. I feel it’s going to go greater than 5 rounds. I feel it ends someday from the seventh by way of the ninth rounds.

Sergio Mora, broadcast analyst, retired former junior middleweight champion

The matchup

It form of irks me that these guys are getting this enormous, enormous, enormous alternative after they’re coming off of blemishes. Not solely blemishes, however Garcia has a failed PED take a look at, then he will get a shot at a title, wins it. Now he is the champion, he is the person. Benn, similar with him, coming off losses and a failed PED take a look at. And each of them get rewarded with an enormous alternative. So as a fighter, clearly I’m going to talk up for the those that deserve these massive alternatives that these guys are getting. Great for them, dangerous for the game.

I additionally do not assume that is going to be a good combat as a result of Benn will not be going to be robust after chopping all that weight. Garcia has proved that he can carry the load. He has the scale and he is transferring up and he is a champion now.

So yeah, that is going to be a well-liked combat so far as the 2 names go. That’s the explanation these two are combating, due to their names and recognition and what they will promote. But so far as the combat goes, I feel it may be one-sided. I feel Garcia is simply going to be too massive, too robust, too quick and too younger for Benn.

How does Garcia win the combat?

He wants to make use of the correct hand, similar to he did towards Mario Barrios. If Garcia was beatable, it was as a result of he was a one-trick pony for so lengthy, simply having a left hand. Once he began combating higher fighters, his staff realized that was not going to be sufficient. You’ve bought to be a two-fisted menace to beat champions. That’s why Garcia wasn’t in a position to beat Gervonta “Tank” Davis, as a result of how do you beat an explosive southpaw and not using a proper hand? And it value him. So, he developed the correct hand. I feel he seemed nice towards Barrios, as a result of he seemed like a whole fighter. His self-discipline is so much higher. I feel his father [who is training him for this fight] has actually made him a greater, extra accountable, disciplined fighter. He’s not on the market doing loopy s— anymore. It seems like he is skilled correctly. And I simply assume he will be an excessive amount of for Benn in each class.

There’s not one factor that Benn has over Garcia, not even expertise. Even in that space, Garcia has fought higher fighters. So, I feel it may be a one-sided combat.

Benn is an aggressive fighter. He squares up so much and he is been efficient doing that. But it will not work towards Garcia, who has a depraved proper uppercut and left hook. He caught Javier Fortuna with that left hook [in a 2022 knockout win]. You did not even see that punch coming. It was simply so fast, like he did towards Oscar Duarte [in a 2023 knockout]. Duarte squares up so much. I feel this combat might be just like Duarte’s. If you return and watch that combat, Duarte was having success together with his aggression, pinning Garcia towards the ropes, getting aggressive. But then what? I feel it was the eighth spherical, he caught him with that unbelievable hook after which increase. It was a punch that is going to land on Benn. I feel that is the identical approach he stops Benn and across the similar time.

How does Benn win the combat?

Benn’s going to need to not combat like Benn fights. He’s going to have to attend for Garcia to make the errors, possibly let Garcia come to him. Benn must possibly pressure Garcia to field and are available ahead. Benn has to make use of plenty of jabs, needs to be on the tip of his toes, he has to bounce, he has to maneuver backwards. That’s not who he’s. I’ve by no means seen him do this, not for an prolonged time. But I feel that is what he must do. Let Garcia come to you, let Garcia make the errors, let Garcia be weak in combos. When you assault Garcia, he is so fast with simply two punches, typically even one punch, the left hook, that he makes fighters pay. But for those who make him come ahead, he isn’t going to have the ability to counter with these photographs like he does when somebody’s on the entrance foot.

To keep away from the correct hand and in addition being defensively acutely aware of the left hand, Benn has to make use of foot feints. You’ve bought to do plenty of feints to get the opponent to react, as a result of whenever you’re coping with somebody so quick-triggered and he releases the punch that he is considering of throwing, foot feints are the important thing. If Benn does not come on the market and begin feinting together with his toes and transferring laterally and never counting on aggression, he will get knocked out. The approach I’d combat Garcia is, I’d put together for a fast-foot combat, plenty of feints, plenty of twitching, plenty of higher physique motion. I’m going to assault you, however I’m not going to assault you punching and dipping. Anytime you throw a proper hand at Garcia, be prepared for the left hook to come back again. And as soon as that left hook misses, then you may have an angle on him and might assault him aggressively. If Benn does that, he can have success.

X-factor: The weight

The distinction on this combat goes to be weight. Benn is making the sacrifice to get an enormous payday and an enormous combat by happening two divisions in weight. And fighters which have performed that appear like s— after which blame the load. They nonetheless receives a commission, although, they usually nonetheless get one other combat as a result of all they need to do is blame the load.

Prediction: KO. I feel the sixth-, seven-round knockout. I do not see it going into the later rounds. I positively do not see it going to a call.

Jamaine Ortiz, junior welterweight title contender

The matchup

I feel it may be an entertaining combat. They each come to combat, particularly Conor. They each look slightly bit weight drained this week, so we’ll see how that impacts them, however they’re each trying just about the identical. I feel each of them are going to be prone to getting damage. I positively assume we’ll see some wobbly legs and possibly a knockdown.

How does Garcia win the combat?

I feel he simply has to maintain his distance, hold his jab going. I do know he stiff-arms so much. He has to stiff-arm Conor. And Conor, when he rushes in — as a result of he tries to make the combat occur — he can go away himself open. So, if Ryan can catch him together with his signature left hook when Conor opens up, I feel that is going to be the bread and butter for Ryan.

Speed is energy, so I feel Conor cannot be overly centered on the left hook and never see the opposite punches coming in, like the correct hand. Any punch that is available in with lightning pace, it may well damage Conor. I feel he will need to watch out. If Ryan lets his palms go sufficient, I feel he’ll take the combat. If it is as much as work output, I feel Conor will do extra work. But I feel Ryan’s pace will give him higher accuracy and higher shot choice.

How does Benn win the combat?

Conor has to pretend throwing slightly bit. Fake some issues to make Ryan throw the left hand, so you may learn it slightly bit higher. And hold that proper hand up, hold that chin down. I feel one of the best factor is to typically possibly create no area. The most harmful place is in that mid-range whenever you’re making an attempt to shut that hole and enter in. So, when you may shut area, I feel there’s going to be much less energy behind Ryan’s photographs.

And when Conor will get inside, he has to tough him up. I’m undecided that Ryan can take stress nicely, so with sufficient stress and by bullying him on the within, I feel Conor can present that he is stronger. He ought to use that to his benefit. Fighting on the within, getting Garcia there and never giving him area, that will not permit Ryan to make use of his vary. Garcia makes use of his vary fairly nicely. If you are taking that distance away from him, it takes away considered one of his strengths — measuring distance together with his jab. And by taking that away, I feel you will take leverage away from Ryan’s photographs.

Prediction: I’m going to go for Garcia. I’m going to go for the American. I’m going to say resolution.

Said Taghmaoui, actor (“Wonder Woman,” “G.I. Joe,” “Three Kings”), boxing aficionado

The matchup

This is a severe, fascinating combat. If you’re a famous person, it is time to show it. I feel the load is a key issue. Garcia has fought approach increased opposition than Conor. Conor bought damage — we noticed it towards Chris Eubank Jr., and it was an outdated Chris Eubank Jr., you already know what I’m saying, with out disrespect. This is a severe take a look at for each fighters as a result of everyone knows the standard of Garcia.

Garcia is quick and he is proved himself. Even when he misplaced, he at all times did it with a form of class. I feel Garcia, when he is locked down, when he decides to combat, and in the case of expertise, I give it to Garcia. When it involves quantity and coronary heart, that is Conor.

For me, the one approach Conor can win the combat is by making use of stress, stress and extra stress. And even then, Garcia is a counter man and he is actually quick and he hits tremendous exhausting. Garcia is an actual fighter and he is a world champion proper now. And keep in mind one factor: Styles make fights. This is one definition of that.

How does Garcia win the combat?

Garcia wins by having the ability to keep away from stress, hold Benn at bay with the jab, utilizing his jab like a snap, discouraging Conor to come back in and punishing him when he will get inside. If I used to be Garcia’s coach, that might be my factor. Keep Conor away with the jab, use it as a bloody weapon, and then you definitely reduce him with that stunning left hook or proper hand and the uppercut.

Garcia goes to need to be in nice form as a result of he will have to make use of his legs and transfer so much till Conor will get drained slightly bit after the fifth, sixth spherical. So, yeah, motion, jab and wait for the correct second. Be affected person. Wait, and the correct second goes to come back to him.

How does Conor win the combat?

The solely approach for Benn to win is to shut the space as quickly as potential and make it soiled as potential. Conor wants to maneuver, combat soiled, shut the space, seize, make it a slugfest. That’s the one approach. If Conor will get to him, he will outpunch Garcia, after which you already know what is going on to occur.

Prediction: I’m going for Garcia on this one.