Premier League predictions & Jones Knows’ best bets: Tottenham vs Chelsea, Brighton vs Liverpool, Man Utd vs Bournemouth and much more! | Football News
Our prime tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, offers his evaluation and betting perception for a busy weekend of Premier League motion.
Aston Villa vs Man City, Saturday 12.30pm
I at all times need to be with Unai Emery’s groups when they’re massive underdogs at dwelling.
The numbers make a compelling case for doing so once more right here, with Aston Villa’s document towards the Premier League’s elite at Villa Park below Emery bordering on outstanding.
Since the beginning of the 2023/24 season, Villa have performed 13 dwelling video games towards groups that completed within the prime 4 that season, profitable eight, drawing two and shedding simply three. That is a median of two.00 factors per recreation – a return that will have generated a £16 revenue from £1 degree stakes backing Villa to win in every match.
All three of Villa’s dwelling wins over Manchester City in that pattern are included in that document.
City’s status and their good begin to this marketing campaign are understandably mirrored out there, however they need to not robotically make Villa a workforce to oppose.
Emery’s aspect have additionally discovered their rhythm after a troublesome begin to the season, profitable at Newcastle within the method of a well-oiled Emery machine. City arrive with seven league wins from seven however Villa have the tactical depth, dwelling assist and current head-to-head proof to make this a much harder project than City’s league document suggests.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Aston Villa double probability (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
David Moyes has made Everton a tricky workforce to beat however there’s a totally different problem when his aspect should go away to the Premier League’s massive boys. Since taking cost of West Ham for the primary time, Moyes has misplaced 21 of his 22 away matches at Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool. That is a depressing document towards the very best and it makes backing Arsenal to get the job executed an interesting start line.
The smarter play, although, is to mix the house win with below 3.5 targets at 10/11 with Sky Bet. Arsenal have developed a significantly dependable behavior of profitable with out video games turning into goal-fests. The guess has landed in 12 of their final 14 dwelling matches throughout the Premier League and Champions League, together with every of their final eight on dwelling soil.
That isn’t any coincidence. Mikel Arteta’s aspect are constructed to manage matches, suffocate opponents and handle the sport as soon as they get their noses in entrance.
Arsenal to win and below 3.5 targets at 10/11 with Sky Bet is the play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Coventry vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Fulham are creating the kind of attacking numbers that make them an incredible betting proposition. They are averaging a league-high 33.5 touches within the opposition field per recreation this season, a determine boosted by the 54 they recorded towards Hull at dwelling. But this isn’t merely a case of 1 massive efficiency skewing the numbers. There is loads of substance behind their attacking output.
Only Brighton and Manchester City have generated a better anticipated targets determine per 90 minutes from open play than Fulham’s 1.34. That is a major indicator of the standard of possibilities they’re creating, suggesting it is a aspect constantly discovering methods to threaten opponents fairly than counting on scraps or moments of particular person brilliance.
At Evens with Sky Bet, I just like the look of Fulham scoring at the least twice towards Coventry.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Fulham to attain over 1.5 targets (Evens with Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Feisty one you might be.
The final seven conferences between Chelsea and Tottenham have averaged six playing cards per recreation, whereas referee Chris Kavanagh has proven 4.2 playing cards per 90 minutes for the reason that begin of final season. That is the third-highest common of any Premier League referee over that interval.
The over 5.5 playing cards line is understandably brief at 20/23 with Sky Bet, however I’d fairly take a swing on the participant playing cards market, the place Levi Colwill is accessible at 4/1.
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A have a look at a few of the best targets Spurs have scored towards Chelsea through the years.
Why Colwill? James Maddison is without doubt one of the Premier League’s only card-drawers. Since 2018, he has been liable for 77 opposition gamers receiving yellow playing cards, understanding at one each 215 minutes. He has already helped get two opponents booked this season and seems to be to be rediscovering that mischievous edge to his recreation, utilizing his shut management and fast toes to tempt defenders into rash challenges. Colwill may be subsequent.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Levi Colwill to be carded (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports
Sometimes the best betting angles are those that make you are feeling uncomfortable. Backing a goalless first half when Crystal Palace’s defence has been leaking targets like a sieve definitely falls into that class, however there’s a compelling cause to assume the market may be trying within the unsuitable route.
Palace have conceded two or extra targets in 11 of their final 13 Premier League video games. The underlying numbers are simply as ugly.
But one thing has to present.
Pierre Sage admitted as much after the 5-0 humiliation towards Brighton, saying he wanted to alter one thing. Reading between the strains, that might imply a much extra conservative method towards Newcastle. Palace absolutely can not afford to maintain enjoying so overtly, leaving themselves uncovered time and once more. A no-risk, no-thrills first half may be precisely what the physician ordered.
That makes 0-0 at half-time an intriguing worth at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
And the broader numbers assist the thought. Twenty-one of the final 45 Premier League matches have been goalless on the break.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Hull vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports
Hull’s direct method, spearheaded by the all-action Oli McBurnie, is creating a very fascinating pattern with regards to opposition centre-backs.
Centre-backs are averaging 1.5 fouls drawn per 90 minutes towards Hull. That is smart when you think about the best way McBurnie competes bodily, assaults the ball and makes life uncomfortable for defenders. When a workforce performs with that degree of directness, there are many alternatives for centre-backs to be fouled.
Kristoffer Ajer at 10/11 with Sky Bet to be at the least as soon as seems to be an incredible candidate to maintain this pattern ticking over, having already drawn three fouls throughout his final two video games.
We’re backing a sample that has been established in Hull’s matches, with McBurnie’s type of play offering a logical rationalization for why it’s taking place.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Kristoffer Ajer to be fouled at the least as soon as (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Are Brighton real Premier League title contenders? It would possibly sound a little bit untimely, however Fabian Hurzeler’s document towards the division’s elite calls for severe consideration.
Since his appointment in 2024, Brighton have collected a league-high 19 factors from 13 video games towards Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.
Across these fixtures, they’ve scored 20 targets and conceded 17, profitable the mixture scoreline 20-17 towards three of probably the most highly effective groups in English soccer. Jaw-dropping.
Brighton are courageous with out the ball. They had been enjoying a special sport final weekend towards Crystal Palace.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Brighton and Crystal Palace.
Anfield is an intimidating place to go to, after all, and Liverpool’s high quality makes this a severe check. But Brighton’s document suggests they shouldn’t be priced as outsiders merely due to the badge on the opposite aspect.
At 11/8 with Sky Bet, the draw no guess offers us some safety if the groups share the factors, whereas nonetheless providing a lovely return if Brighton can pull off one other assertion end result.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Man Utd vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Sunday twenty fifth October 12:30pm
Kick off 2:00pm
Manchester United are sturdy favourites to win this recreation. Let that sink in for a second.
Seven factors from their opening seven Premier League video games represents their worst begin to a top-flight season in 37 years, whereas they’ve gone seven matches with out a win in all competitions, shedding 4 and drawing three. This is a workforce struggling to persuade anybody that they’ve the solutions, but the market nonetheless needs us to imagine they need to be trusted to get the job executed.
I’m not shopping for it.
There is a worrying lack of togetherness about United. Bruno Fernandes’ physique language has been telling and his post-match feedback following the Como recreation did little to counsel a bunch pulling in the identical route.
Bournemouth, in the meantime, have each cause to journey to Old Trafford believing they will get one thing. They are unbeaten of their final six conferences with United and have scored 15 targets throughout these video games.
The draw no guess market gives a helpful security web as our stake is returned if the sport finishes degree whereas a Bournemouth win lands at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Bournemouth draw no guess (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Sunderland vs Leeds, Sunday 4.30pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
There is a robust case for conserving issues easy and taking the largest worth of the three outcomes.
Backing Premier League attracts has been a worthwhile technique throughout the final two seasons, returning a really tidy +46 factors to £1 degree stakes. Of course, previous income don’t assure future returns however it’s a helpful reminder that the draw is usually neglected by punters that gravitate in direction of choosing a winner.
Leeds are an particularly fascinating workforce to deal with. They have drawn eight of their final 16 Premier League video games. That is a major sufficient sample to take significantly when assessing a worth of 21/10 with Sky Bet for the draw. Back the guess no-one needs to again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Jones Knows’ best bets…
- Liam Delap to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet)
- Aston Villa double probability (6/5 with Sky Bet)
- Fulham to attain over 1.5 targets (Evens with Sky Bet)
- Levi Colwill to be carded (4/1 with Sky Bet)
- Kristoffer Ajer to be fouled at the least as soon as (10/11 with Sky Bet)
- Bournemouth draw no guess (11/8 with Sky Bet)