A brief foray into the Mariners lineup construction against lefties
I can not emphasize sufficient the diploma to which I believe lineup construction is overrated in the discourse relative to the distinction it makes in observe. I nearly do not even wish to put up this. But even with that caveat, lineup construction would not not matter, and I believe we noticed a mistake final evening. So due to a dialog between customers GrasshoppingonNails, AJPDX, GrassRockFish, and rumdoodle on this morning’s Moose Tracks, I’m posting this regardless of my hesitance.
As famous on the broadcast, Rob Refsnyder has the third-highest OBP against LHP since 2023, behind solely Vladito and Aaron Judge. So I completely get why the Mariners would wish to have him in the leadoff spot to get on base forward of the crew’s large bats. And that is what the Mariners did:
This makes a specific amount of sense. With Refsnyder at leadoff, you are maximizing the odds that he will get three turns against a lefty, which is nice. The drawback is that the lineup is a circle. Having settled on a DH platoon of Refsnyder and Dominic Canzone, we all know the Mariners are (appropriately) anticipating pinch-hitting the lefty-swinging Canzone for Refsnyder as soon as a reliever is available in. But as soon as they do this, they’ve arrange a Young-Canzone back-to-back of lefties for the subsequent time by way of. That’s completely suited to a crew’s left-handed reliever. Then you are both getting Canzone versus a lefty or else utilizing Mitch Garver or (gulp) Ryan Bliss as yet one more pinch hitter. None of these conditions are supreme relative to Canzone versus a righty or Refsnyder versus a lefty.
That scenario is precisely what arose final evening, as Ryan Bliss pinch-hit against Erik Sabrowski after which needed to face Cade Smith with the recreation on the line in the ninth. You do not must be as down on Bliss as I’m to guess how that went.
My proposed answer is fairly easy. Against LHP, make the 1-2-3 Julio-Refsnyder-Cal. That approach, as soon as Canzone is in, there is not any lefty pocket. If an opponent desires to herald a left-handed highlighter to face Young and Canzone or power a substitution, they must make the sacrifice of letting Julio face a lefty. Maybe they’re going to nonetheless do it, however a minimum of they must make a tradeoff. Historically, Julio would not carry out that a lot better against southpaws than northpaws, however he is additionally nearly by no means confronted lefty relievers with large platoon splits. This construction would both give him that chance or else preserve a righty in against a minimum of one in every of Young or Canzone.
To ensure, this will get extra difficult as soon as JP Crawford returns. I’m anticipating that lineup to look a lot the similar however with a backside 4 of Donovan, JP, Robles, and Young in some order. Because Víctor Robles is platooning with Luke Raley, you find yourself with the same scenario of a lefty pocket. But as a result of it is at the backside of the order, that pocket is far much less prone to come to the plate twice after the starter comes out than the high of the order is. So as soon as Robles is out and Raley is in, it is much less possible that pocket will come up once more and be exploitable with a left-handed reliever.
And in any occasion, having these 4 at the backside of the order is occurring no matter how the high three are arrange. If something, it is but another excuse to maneuver Refsnyder from leadoff to second. That helps cut up up the two platoon spots as far aside as potential.
Of course, baseball is not simply names on a web page. These are human beings we’re speaking about, and there could also be one thing the crew sees in giving Julio and Cal the similar lineup spots day by day, regardless of who they’re going through. Baseball gamers are famously creatures of behavior, and people are the two most essential bats. In specific, Julio did not love hitting in the leadoff spot because it ensures he’ll have to guide off an inning a minimum of as soon as, and he would not like having to get into focus so shortly after the lengthy jog again from centerfield. If that is what’s motivating the crew, then do not let my machinations get in the approach. But if not, I like to recommend shuffling the high three against southpaws.
