Xavier v. Villanova: Regular season finale preview
Well, right here we’re. This season began again with a regarding win over Marist, hit excessive factors by sweeping Georgetown and profitable the Shootout, and hit its nadir with a weird house loss to Santa Clara, no, a 41 level drubbing by Creighton, no, wait, blowing a 16 level second half result in St. John’s. Anyway, it has been extra down than up. At the beginning of the season Xavier was picked eighth within the Big East preseason ballot. They presently sit tenth. They cannot end final, they can not end greater than eighth.
But there’s a world of distinction in these three spots. Right now, St. John’s is trending towards ending first (65% probability). That means ending eighth or ninth means lacking UConn till the ultimate if issues maintain. The finest manner to do this is to beat Villanova. The Wildcats had been picked to complete seventh within the Big East. Instead, Kevin Willard has them as a event lock. They have solely misplaced to BYU, Creighton, UConn, and St. John’s this 12 months. Two groups that had been picked proper subsequent to one another have taken vastly totally different routes to this place.
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Team Fingerprint
The offense is sluggish. Villanova is in no specific rush to shoot the ball. Under Jay Wright that was as a result of they had been going to take without end after which drain a 3 pointer from somebody so large open you assumed they had been taking part in with six. This Nova would not shoot like that, however they may hold the ball scorching and shoot lots from deep. They’re an honest taking pictures workforce that’s first rate on the glass and first rate at not turning the ball over. All that decency provides as much as the forty third best offense within the nation.
Defensively Villanova additionally retains issues sluggish. They do pressure turnovers at a fairly excessive price, they usually do not ship groups to the road a lot. While they do not have significantly low defensive taking pictures rankings, they excel at working groups off the three level line. The Wildcats are additionally very efficient at taking part in protection with out fouling. Their protection is not elite, however if you wish to rating in opposition to them you’re going to must earn it.
Players
Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
Acaden Lewis | Point Guard | All Wright |
Freshman | class | Sophomore |
6’2″, 180 | Measurements | 6’3″, 190 |
12.5/3.2/5.1 | recreation line | 7.7/1.7/2 |
46.5/26.4/57.6 | taking pictures line | 47.1/43.4/83.3 |
This man balled out in non-con. His effectivity has taken a step again in league play, however he has maintained a workforce excessive in utilization price. He’s an terrible shooter from deep and the road, however he distributes nicely with good ball safety and he’s a very good defender. If a freshman is being trusted with the ball this a lot and greater than retaining his head above water, he is one thing particular. | ||
Bryce Lindsay | Shooting Guard | Malik Messina-Moore |
Sophomore | class | Senior |
6’3″, 194 | Measurements | 6’5″, 200 |
12.3/2/2.1 | recreation line | 10.8/3/3.9 |
37.9/35/78.8 | taking pictures line | 38/32.9/79.8 |
Lindsay continues to chuck with reckless abandon, however he is barely making a 3rd of his photographs in league play, together with simply 28.8% of his 118 three-point makes an attempt. Unlike Lewis, he would not provide a lot when his shot is not falling. There simply aren’t many life like choices to switch him within the lineup for Nova proper now. | ||
Tyler Perkins | Small Forward | Tre Carroll |
Junior | class | Senior |
6’4″, 212 | Measurements | 6’8″, 235 |
13.5/5.5/1.6 | recreation line | 18/5.7/2.6 |
43.8/35.3/74.4 | taking pictures line | 50.8/35.4/70.9 |
Perkins leads the workforce in scoring and shot makes an attempt, however he is actually environment friendly for a quantity man. His unimpressive uncooked numbers are all the way down to Nova’s glacial tempo, however he is a enough menace in any respect three ranges and by no means turns the ball over. Outside of the middle place, he is the workforce’s finest rebounder by far. | ||
Malachi Palmer | Power Forward | Filip Borovicanin |
Sophomore | class | Senior |
6’6″, 212 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
4.3/1.7/0.6 | recreation line | 10.4/7.8/4.3 |
45.9/36.4/76.2 | taking pictures line | 42.6/33.3/86.3 |
Usual starter Matt Hodge was having a very good freshman marketing campaign because the beginning 4, however he tore his ACL and is out for the 12 months. Palmer stepped up in his place within the mid-week and appears set to take the identical function right this moment. He’s extraordinarily environment friendly in very low utilization thanks to creating his threes and never turning the ball over. He went for 10/5/1 with a 103 ORtg in his begin in opposition to St. John’s. | ||
Duke Brennan | Center | Jovan Milicevic |
Senior | class | Sophomore |
6’10”, 250 | Measurements | 6’10”, 241 |
12/10.4/2 | recreation line | 12/3.9/1.3 |
65.5/0/61.3 | taking pictures line | 44.9/43.4/71.2 |
This dude is an absolute ox within the paint. He leads the league in EFG% and FT price and is prime 5 in rebounding proportion on each ends. He’s not a brilliant good free throw shooter and his defensive stats are mainly non-existent other than killing possessions on the glass, however in case you discover me a coach who says he would not take 12 and 10 in a half hour of play from his heart each outing and I’ll discover you a multitude. |
The bench is functionally Devin Askew, who was a freshman at Kentucky the identical 12 months Colby Jones was a freshman at Xavier. Jones now has over 100 skilled video games below his belt whereas Askew continues to play for NIL cash. It has been nicely spent this 12 months, as he is averaging 9.9/2.4/1.9 on 40.9/42.3/87 taking pictures. He’s a wonderful shooter and perimeter defender.
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Braden Pierce is a 7′ freshman massive getting about 7 minutes a recreation, rebounding nicely at each ends, and fouling a ton. Chris Jeffrey is a freshman guard getting about 8 minutes per recreation and taking pictures very well, though on simply 40 makes an attempt all 12 months. If both of them decides the sport, it will likely be a primary.
Three Questions
– Will Tre Carroll play? Tre did not apply on Thursday as he obtained therapy on his proper hip. At this time limit he is a recreation time resolution for the sport on Saturday. As Xavier’s solely probability to make the event is profitable the BET it is secure to imagine that Carroll won’t go until he’s 100%. Xavier can have some thought what they want by typoff time on Saturday, so there are eventualities the place simply resting Carroll is the most suitable choice anyway.
– So who steps up? Against Seton Hall Filip Borovicanin actually tried to be the man, however struggles contained in the arc and Jovan Milicevic and Malik Messina-Moore each taking a half off did not assist him. Triple M appears the most definitely candidate to take over the scoring reins, however Milicevic and All Wright each have massive video games in them. Someone must step up and be assertive.
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– Could the backup bigs do a job? Against Nova the primary time Anthony Robinson was efficient in restricted time. Both he and Pape N’Diaye had been good in opposition to Seton Hall, with N’Diaye as soon as once more wanting like he was on the verge of breaking out. Duke Brennan’s six offensive rebounds modified the final assembly. Running some dimension and size at him might change that.
Three Keys
– Keep the ball shifting: We noticed on Tuesday what occurs when Xavier has to play one on one basketball. This workforce excels when the ball stays scorching and bogs down in a short time when it would not. Especially with Carroll prone to miss this recreation, Xavier has to get Nova in rotation and hold them there.
– Limit second probabilities: Xavier has not received a single recreation this season when the opponent collected greater than 32% of their very own misses. For some cause this workforce merely can’t overcome a nasty night time on the defensive glass. Villanova flirted with that quantity final time, however stayed under it. That is why Xavier was proper within the recreation till the very finish. In addition to the turnover everybody remembers, Tre Carroll additionally had seven defensive rebounds in that recreation.
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– Push the tempo: Once once more, this can be a recreation the place Xavier can have success on the open flooring however will wrestle within the half courtroom. Against Seton Hall the need to run led to a few hilarious moments the place X scored quick break factors after a Pirates made bucket. They want that sort of pace once more on Saturday.
