The Oilers must convince Connor McDavid to stay. That’s what these playoffs are all about

EDMONTON — Connor McDavid meant it as a praise.

The finest hockey participant on earth, talking the day earlier than his crew was scheduled to begin what it hopes to be a 3rd consecutive two-month odyssey to the bitter finish of the Stanley Cup playoffs, was requested how the 2025-26 iteration of the Edmonton Oilers compares with the previous few.

“I’ve felt good about each and every group we go in with, honestly,” McDavid mentioned, “and this group is no different.”

It was the savvy reply. It was the diplomatic reply. It might need even been the proper reply.

And that final bit is the one that ought to terrify Edmonton Oilers followers. All events concerned want to hope that one thing has modified, even after six months of largely uninspired hockey that screamed in any other case. The Oilers completed in second place within the drab Pacific Division, adequate for residence ice within the first spherical in opposition to the Anaheim Ducks. McDavid on Sunday referred to as his crew’s common season “monotonous,” and boy, was he proper.

Despite that, he’s, as ever, a singularly unparalleled drive in trendy hockey, one who completed the season on a post-Olympic, 1.8 point-per-game scoring bender that propelled his crew out of hazard, propelled him to one other Art Ross Trophy and will propel him to a fourth Hart Trophy.

He’s additionally the identical man who, in October, signed a two-year, $25 million, dual-purpose contract extension. Was it a ludicrously team-friendly transfer by the participant, designed to give basic supervisor Stan Bowman extra space to function? Yes. Was it McDavid telling Bowman, in impact, that he was on the clock? Also, sure.

That’s what the Oilers’ still-in-the-gates 2026 postseason is about, and why there is a sure sense of dread hanging over the proceedings. They can both shut the deal after two straight years of agonizing failure, or they will someway fall quick in a approach that does not counsel a crew caught on a treadmill because the stopwatch ticks. The diploma of issue on each is likely to be equally excessive.

It should not be. For greater than a decade, throughout a number of entrance workplaces, the Oilers have relied on a pair of all-time greats to an irresponsible, unfair, pointless diploma. McDavid and Leon Draisaitl dragged them to the doorstep of the Cup in 2024 in opposition to the Florida Panthers, then got here almost as shut in final spring’s rematch.

The summer time, in flip, introduced nothing of consequence, as Bowman leaned even additional right into a ahead group whose worth was dangerously concentrated on the prime. McDavid and Draisaitl are elite. Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are high quality help. Beyond them, finest case was a gaggle of query marks and lottery tickets. Even with Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton’s middle-six forwards entered 2025-26 with a mixed Net Rating of minus-12. The remainder of TheAthletic‘s prime 5 groups in projected factors all averaged a plus-5.

Wholly unaddressed had been the crew’s goaltending issues. Stuart Skinner had adopted a below-average common season by getting pulled in Game 5 of the Cup Final final yr, and Calvin Pickard was a profession backup.

By March 13, Andrew Mangiapane, Bowman’s finest try at including a depth ahead, had performed his approach onto the waiver wire, and Tristan Jarry — acquired from Pittsburgh in December for Skinner, a second-round choose and defenseman Brett Kulak — had taken the goaltending from unhealthy to terrifying.

“They’ve been to the Cup (Final) twice because of three or four guys. If you had given them any kind of depth on the forwards or if their goalie wasn’t Stuart Skinner, they’re probably two-time Stanley Cup champions. So what do they do? They go out and get a goalie who might not be as good as Skinner,” an executive told TheAthletic earlier than the playoffs, in a contender-ranking train that put Edmonton between the Buffalo Sabers and Montreal Canadiens. “It’s amazing to me that they haven’t fixed any of the holes.”

Edmonton had began to buckle beneath that weight, shedding 4 straight going into the Olympic break and 5 of 9 popping out of it. From there, issues appeared to return. Draisaitl’s common season ended on a March 15 win over the Nashville Predators. After a 5-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on March 22, McDavid appropriately famous that poor play throughout the Pacific Division was the principle factor holding the Oilers afloat.

“We’re fortunate to play in this division,” McDavid mentioned. “A lot of teams are fortunate to play in this division. It’s a bit of a pillow fight right now.”

Post-“pillow fight,” McDavid averaged two factors per sport (10 objectives, 12 assists), and the Oilers went 7-2-2. In 5 of these wins, he had objectives. In one other, he had 4 assists. Relatively improved goaltending and defensive play depend for one thing; McDavid counts for an entire lot extra.

“Five or six weeks ago, it was a little bit dire, obviously, with some health questions and fighting for a playoff spot,” McDavid mentioned on Sunday. “We’ve earned the opportunity to be in this position. Pacific Division or not, we’re here.”

Indeed they are — and their state of affairs, given how issues appeared a month in the past, could not realistically be significantly better.

Draisaitl’s return from a lower-body injury is imminentas is that of Jason Dickinson, a defensively impactful third-line middle added on the deadline by Bowman to play behind his two Hall of Famers. Matt Savoie, a skillsy winger drafted at No. 9 by Buffalo in 2022, has popped on McDavid’s line, and Hyman appears prepared to roll as nicely. The defensive group, led by 95-point stud Evan Bouchard, goes three pairs deep. Connor Ingram took management of the goaltending job by default and has acquired himself nicely, enjoying in 22 of Edmonton’s final 27 video games and, after the Olympic break, placing up a .901 save share.

If the Oilers discover themselves in a greater spot in June (and that, after all, would solely imply one factor), you’ll be able to think about the trail they’d take. There’s secondary scoring, when you squint onerous sufficient, and a ahead group that, total, appears higher than the one the Oilers took into the 2025 first spherical in opposition to the Los Angeles Kings.

“About five minutes before I got out here, we were actually looking at our Game 1 lineup (from 2025),” coach Kris Knoblauch mentioned on Sunday. “We were (saying), “Wow. What was going on? What were we thinking?’” He views the present group as one with extra confirmed commodities, and it is powerful to disagree. It’s additionally powerful not to grade on a curve.

Just as clear, too, is a second, uglier route, one which ends with a Cup-less McDavid getting into a de facto stroll yr on a roster weak in predictable spots and doomed for a similar, stale causes. On March 9, TheAthletic‘s Pierre LeBrun wrote that whereas “the feeling is (McDavid) will give the Oilers one more season next year in this contention window,” he additionally could not low cost how McDavid would really feel about a postseason flame-out.

Edmonton’s first step towards avoiding its nightmare situation can come on Monday in opposition to the Ducks. The street to actual change, and a contented ending, is an entire lot longer.