MLB 2026: Breaking down Cal Raleigh’s first 13 games
There are chilly begins to a season — after which there’s this begin from the Seattle Marinersdoing their perfect to indicate us what baseball in Yakutsk, Russia, may seem like.
In their first 13 games, the Mariners hit an abysmal .184, so regardless of a franchise-best 2.62 ERA over that span, they presently sit on the backside of the standings with a disappointing 4-9 file. They acquired swept this week in Texas, scoring three whole runs over three games and amassing simply 11 hits, culminating in a lackluster two-hit shutout on Wednesday.
Most irritating is their 2-3-4-5 hitters — Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena — are a mixed 26-for-195 (.133) with only one dwelling run. Rodriguez and Naylor are each with out an extra-base hit, whereas Arozarena has three doubles, at the least. Rodriguez has a complete of seven hits on the season, and Naylor has simply 5 to go together with a minus-49 WRC+.
It’s Raleigh, nevertheless, who faces the early intense scrutiny out of that group, coming off their record-setting 60-home run season however off to a troublesome first two weeks. He’s hitting .143 with one dwelling run on seven hits and a whopping 21 strikeouts, which is the second most in MLB.
With the Mariners internet hosting the division-rival Houston Astros in ESPN’s MLB Game of the Day at 9:40 pm ET on Saturday (obtainable on the ESPN App), let’s dig into Raleigh’s begin and see what is going on on with him — and his teammates.
Breaking down Raleigh’s at-bats
I watched all 55 of Raleigh’s plate appearances via Wednesday’s recreation — each single one of many 248 pitches he has seen. On the pleasure scale, this task rated someplace between “eating a hot dog at the Kingdome back in the day that had probably been cooked three days earlier” and “watching Bobby Ayala close out games in 1998.”
Here are takeaways from various notable at-bats:
Game 1/PA No. 2: Struck out swinging on an 0-2 changeup from Cleveland Guardians righty Tanner Bibee. An ideal pitch on the surface nook, diving away from Raleigh, no disgrace there. But the first pitch of the at-bat was a four-seam fastball proper down the center that Raleigh took for a strike.
Game 1/PA No. 4: Trailing 5-4 within the eighth inning, Raleigh acquired forward 2-0 however swung over a slider from Erik Sabrowskifinally hanging out trying on a 2-2 slider that was exterior (and which Raleigh ought to have challenged).
Game 2/PA No. 1: Raleigh struck out in an eight-pitch at-bat in opposition to Gavin Williamsfouling off a 3-2 cutter that was down the center with out a lot motion after which whiffing on a depraved 3-2 cutter that circled in off the plate.
Game 2/PA No. 4: Struck out trying in opposition to Peyton Pallette for his fourth strikeout of the sport and seventh in two games. It was a curveball, means exterior, a pitch that Raleigh, once more, ought to have challenged.
We’ll notice right here that Raleigh — like Rodriguez, Naylor and Arozarena — performed on this yr’s World Baseball Classic. Much was made, in fact, of Raleigh not shaking fingers with Arozarena (after which Naylor in one other recreation). However, after Arozarena’s apology for comments I made about the interaction In a postgame interview, everybody appeared to enter the common season on good phrases. With so lots of their key gamers scattered throughout WBC groups, the Mariners had a horrible spring coaching at 11-19. When Raleigh did play, he scuffled, going 8-for-32 with one dwelling run and 12 strikeouts after which went 0-for-9 within the WBC, getting benched for Will Smith for Team USA’s last two games. Yes, given all this, you may think about that native sports activities radio in Seattle spends about two hours a day speaking concerning the WBC.
Game 5/PA No. 1: Coming off the bench to pinch hit in a 1-1 recreation with two runners on in opposition to the New York YankeesRaleigh acquired forward 2-0 in opposition to lefty reliever (*13*) however then swung and missed at a slider means down out of the strike zone, finally hanging out on 2-2 splitter low and away.
Game 6/PA No. 4: After going 0-for-3 in opposition to lefty Max FriedRaleigh once more confronted Headrick. The first pitch is a 93-mph fastball center away that he swings via. He finally strikes out swinging on the very same pitch.
A key to Raleigh’s monster 2025 season was his enchancment in opposition to left-handed pitching. He hit .281/.351/.681 with 22 dwelling runs in 185 at-bats in opposition to lefties, after hitting simply .183 in opposition to them in 2024. Those two fastballs from Headrick had been the kind of middle-of-the-zone pitches that Raleigh demolished final yr — from each side of the plate.
Look at his numbers in opposition to pitches within the vertical center of the strike zone, that means round belt excessive:
2025: .290/.333/.695, 26 HRs in 210 at-bats
2026: .105/.261/263, 1 HR in 19 at-bats
It’s clearly a really small pattern dimension, however he wasn’t lacking these pitches in 2025. His contact charge on them was 80.7% final yr and is simply 67.6% to date in 2026. His contact in opposition to pitches wherever within the strike zone has declined from 78.4% to 65.8%. Even in 2024, that in-zone contact charge was 77.0%.
Raleigh is comparable in some vogue to Bryce Harper in his swing selections. Even although each drew loads of walks, each additionally swing-and-miss lots and chase out of the strike zone. Last yr, Raleigh drew 97 walks although his chase charge was beneath common, within the twenty fifth percentile. But when the pitcher made a mistake, Raleigh typically crushed it. That in-zone contact charge is the massive concern. Out of 187 certified hitters to date, solely Jose Caballero has a worse in-zone contact charge than Raleigh (and Rodriguez is 181st).
Game 8/PA No. 3: Raleigh flies out to left area in opposition to the Los Angeles Angels left-hander Reid Detmers on a 2-2 fastball up and in, a wonderfully positioned four-seamer. Here’s the superb factor: With an exit velocity of 100.7 mph, it was the first hard-hit ball (a ball of 95-plus mph) of the season for Raleigh… in his twenty eighth at-bat.
Game 9/PA No. 1: Facing Angels starter Jack KochanowiczRaleigh hit a fly ball to the wall in proper area at Angel Stadium… and Jo Adell robbed him of a house run (considered one of three he would steal within the recreation).
Last yr, possibly that ball travels an additional three toes. If this recreation is in June, it is most likely a house run. Indeed, it hasn’t helped that the Mariners performed their first seven games in Seattle — and Seattle in April is concerning the hardest place to hit within the majors. They performed two evening games in Anaheim, one other robust place to hit. They performed three games in Texas, the place Globe Life Field performed as the most effective pitcher’s park within the majors final yr.
Game 9/PA No. 3: Facing Kochanowicz for a 3rd time, Raleigh falls behind on a questionable checked-swing strike on the first pitch, after which fouls off 4 pitches, together with two four-seamers (one up, one low and in). He lastly strikes out on a 96-mph 3-2 four-seamer means up and out of the zone, a pitch with a 0% strike likelihood and the sort of pitch a batter in a deep stoop presents at.
Game 11/PA No. 1: Texas righty Jacob deGrom he tries to sneak a 3-2 fastball previous Raleigh within the first inning, however the pitch is lifeless heart within the strike zone and Raleigh crushes it to proper area for his first dwelling run. Raleigh has seven hits in 2026: This is the one one categorized as a hard-hit ball.
Game 12/PA No. 2: Raleigh swings at a first-pitch cutter from Nathan Eovaldia pitch disregarded over plate, however Raleigh is late and pops as much as shallow left area. He’ll swing at Eovaldi’s first pitch in his subsequent at-bat as nicely, hitting a foul ball earlier than finally hitting a bloop single.
Jumping on the first pitch was one thing that labored final yr for Raleigh. He hit .427 with 17 dwelling runs in 82 at-bats when placing the first pitch in play. He was additionally one of the vital aggressive swingers on the first pitch, with the Thirteenth-highest first-pitch swing proportion amongst certified hitters. (In one other similarity, Harper had the second-highest proportion.)
This yr? Raleigh is simply 1-for-7 when placing the first pitch in play.
Game 13/PA No. 4: Raleigh flies out on a 3-2 cutter from Cole Winncompletely positioned on the excessive exterior nook. The good signal for Raleigh: This ball was hit at 92 mph and he had two different outs earlier within the recreation that had been hard-hit outs. Maybe it is beginning to join.
What this season begin means for the Mariners
It’s exceptional to see a crew’s greatest hitters all struggling like this on the similar time. And to be clear: This will not be a case of unhealthy luck on balls in play or something like that. They’ve been unhealthy. Watching Raleigh’s 55 plate appearances was like watching an overmatched child simply known as up from Single-A. Raleigh’s swing-and-miss charge in opposition to four-seamers and two-seamers is up from 25.2% final season to 50%. If you may’t hit a fastball, you haven’t any likelihood on the plate. Rodriguez has equally been lacking fastballs, with a miss charge of 32.8% in comparison with 21.6% final yr.
And when have they made contact? It hasn’t been laborious contact. Check out these numbers on hard-hit charges via Seattle’s first 13 games in comparison with final season:
Mariners in 2025: 42.8% (4th in MLB)
Mariners in 2026: 34.2% (twenty ninth in MLB)
Raleigh in 2025: 49.6%
Raleigh in 2026: 21.4%
Rodriguez in 2025: 48.0%
Rodriguez in 2026: 36.4%
Naylor in 2025: 41.9%
Naylor in 2026: 35.0%
Arozarena in 2025: 50.6%
Arozarena in 2026: 44.1%
Even in hitting 60 dwelling runs final yr, Raleigh was a streaky hitter — and even began slowly, hitting .184 with two dwelling runs via his first 13 games. He had different stretches of 1 dwelling run in 11 games, one in 10 games and three totally different stretches of 1 in 9 games. When he hit dwelling runs, they got here in bunches, together with an unimaginable 11 two-homer games.
Rodriguez, in the meantime, has been a infamous sluggish starter all through his profession, with a profession first-half OPS of .726 and second-half OPS of .902. His profession OPS in August is 300 factors larger than it’s in April.
None of this alleviates the ugly begin however is probably proof that it is too early to panic. Then once more, for a franchise that missed the playoffs by one win in each 2023 and 2024, this sluggish begin may show pricey come September.
