Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Washington State Cougars prediction, pick for NCAAM on Wednesday 2/25/26

Washington State brings the louder offense into Los Angeles, however Loyola Marymount brings the half that often decides late-February coin flips: resistance. The Cougars are 12-17 and nonetheless harmful as a result of they will rating in waves. The Lions are 14-15 and far more snug making each journey really feel crowded. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s school basketball sport between the Loyola Marymount Lions and the Washington State Cougars.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for particular person video games all season, with loads of protection right here on DraftKings Network. Follow my deal with @dansby_edits for extra betting performs.

The Cougars sit at 116.4 AdjOE with a 55.5 eFG%, they hit 55.6% on twos, 36.9% from three, and a heavy 45.0% of their photographs come from deep. They additionally file a 29.4% offensive rebound charge, so misses can turn into second probabilities as a substitute of empty possessions. That is the clear case for the street facet. The downside is the defensive reply ready for it. Loyola Marymount owns a 105.7 AdjDE, a 48.6 eFGD%, and a stout 47.1 2PpercentD, which is one of the best single team-shape quantity on the ground tonight. The Lions additionally maintain opponents to 34.2% from three and a 35.6 opponent 3-point try charge, so they aren’t simply contesting photographs, they’re dragging groups off the simplest spacing rhythm.

Loyola Marymount permits solely 53.0% on shut twos and 38.5% on farther twos. Washington State permits 58.6% on shut twos and 43.8% on farther twos. That is a significant inside hole in a sport sitting on the identical 67.3 adjusted tempo on each side, as a result of related tempo pushes the end result towards shot high quality and half-court management. Loyola Marymount’s personal offense isn’t explosive total at 107.3 AdjOE, however it’s not helpless within the scoring zones that matter right here. The Lions completed 84.1% of their dunks, hit 61.7% on shut twos, and nonetheless get to a 31.4 FTR. Against a Washington State protection that enables 84.2% on dunks and doesn’t pressure many turnovers at a 14.7 TORD, the Lions don’t want an attractive offense. They want sufficient rim entry, sufficient free throws, and sufficient clear organizing possessions.

Loyola Marymount has, in my view, the strongest construction. Myron Amey Jr. carries a 22.7% utilization charge with solely a ten.5% turnover charge, and that’s the type of lead-guard steadiness that ages nicely in a one-possession sport. Jan Vide is looser at 19.2% turnover charge, however his 27.9% help charge offers the Lions an actual table-setter. Jalen Shelley brings 24.4% utilization, a 44.7 FTR, and a 19.5% defensive rebounding charge, so he can create offense whereas cleansing up misses. Then the scale turns from summary to concrete. Rick Issanza (7-1) carries at 10.0% block charge. Aaron McBride provides a 4.0% block charge and a 9.9% offensive rebounding charge. Joshua Dalton (6-10) and Rokas Jocius (6-10) hold the lane huge behind them. Washington State has weapons too. Ace Glass III drives the offense at 27.3% utilization, posts at 58.4 TS%, and has gone 79-for-90 on the line. Rihards Vavers has been hyper-efficient with a 127.2 ORTG, 63.8 eFG%, and 66.2 TS%. ND Okafor offers the Cougars actual inside counters with a ten.0% offensive rebounding charge, an 18.4% defensive rebounding charge, and a 7.2% block charge. But LMU has extra size to hassle the primary shot and extra our bodies to make the second tougher too.

Washington State vs. Loyola Marymount pick, greatest wager

Washington State owns the higher total Barthag at .6259 in opposition to .5425. The Cougars are one of the best uncooked capturing crew, one of the best offensive crew, and essentially the most keen volume-three facet. If Washington State wins the perimeter math, this may appear to be the street favourite the board first posted. That is the clearest hazard. But the Cougars additionally flip it over on 18.5% of possessions, which is worse than LMU’s 17.9%, and they don’t generate sufficient defensive chaos to erase these leaks. In a brief unfold, empty journeys matter greater than broad season résumé edges. The higher offense can nonetheless lose when it bleeds a couple of possessions and provides up cleaner inside appears.

The sport surroundings pushes the identical path. This is a same-tempo matchup within the high-60s, not a race. That means the sides are more likely to come from who controls the paint, who protects the ball, and who will get a cleaner whistle profile late. Loyola Marymount’s dimension ought to matter extra as the sport slows into late-clock possessions. Washington State’s street path is extra unstable as a result of it reads tougher on jump-shot quantity. In a sport this quick, residence flooring isn’t just environment. It is the additional physique on a rebound, the additional rim contest, and the little officiating tilt that may flip a tied sport into six free throws over the ultimate two minutes.

Best wager: Loyola Marymount moneyline +100, playable to -105. Prediction: Loyola Marymount 76, Washington State 73.

Best wager: Loyola Marymount (+100) vs. Washington State

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