Bracketology locks: Which teams are already in? Who have you worked to do this week?
Conference event week is unendingly anxious for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble, partially as a result of there are so many elements outdoors your management. what if bid thieves emerge and tighten the crunch? What if a number of others bubble teams get scorching and diminish the impression of your success?
By distinction, these within the “lock” class can breathe a bit simpler. Regardless of what occurs this week, they know they’ll hear their identify referred to as on Selection Sunday and are headed towards participation in March Madness. Seeding, momentum and the prospect to hoist a convention event trophy are nonetheless on the road, however there is no such thing as a bubble stress for the locks.
Deciding the place to draw the road on who’s a real lock is all the time going to be a subjective train requiring a cautious contact. Lock standing can’t be prematurely proclaimed, lest a staff stumble and lose their spot within the projected discipline amid a bubble emerges and the looks of these pesky bid burglars.
Conference event week will definitely impression the bubble image. In reality, it’s already after ACC teams Stanford and Virginia Tech suffered potential bubble-busting losses on Tuesday. Against that backdrop, right here are the teams we are comfy calling locks to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Other classes embody the “almost there,” “on the bubble” and “longshot” tiers.
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology mannequin’s newest bracket on the Bracketology hub
Remember, this train pertains to potential at-large teams. Check out who you have clinched an automatic bid here.
ACC
Locks: duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson
Almost there: NC State
Bubble: SMU, Cal
Longshot: Virginia Tech, Stanford
NC State has dropped six of its previous seven video games and could be suggested to beat No. 15 seed Pitt on Wednesday except it needs to be subjected to intense scrutiny from the choice committee. The Wolfpack’s greatest highway wins over Clemson and SMU have depreciated in worth, and a 24-point beatdown of North Carolina comes with a big asterisk since UNC was lacking stars Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. Thus, it feels untimely to name NC State a lock simply but. Virginia Tech and Stanford are all however achieved after shedding their first-round video games on the ACC Tournament on Tuesday.
Atlantic 10
Almost there: Saint Louis
Bubble: VCU
Saint Louis is simply 3-3 over its final six video games and has plummeted in each results-based and predictive metrics following a 24-1 begin. The Billikens are nonetheless most likely protected, however they are not a lock. A one-and-done displaying within the A10 Tournament, mixed with the fallacious cocktail of outcomes from across the nation, may very well be disastrous.
Big 12
Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU
Almost there: UCF
Longshots: West Virginia, Cincinnati
UCF was as soon as 17-4 (6-3 Big 12) and seemed like a lock. But after shedding six of 9 video games down the stretch, the Knights are limping into the Big 12 Tournament. With resume metrics nonetheless hovering within the 30s, this staff might be high-quality. But with out good predictive metrics to fall again upon, a one-and-done stint within the Big 12 Tournament must be averted simply in case.
Big East
Locks: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Longshot: Seton Hall
Beating St. John’s in a possible Big East Tournament semifinal sport is probably going a minimal for Seton Hall. Reaching that threshold would give the Pirates 22 victories, however they cannot cover from the truth that they did not play a very good nonconference schedule. That reality reveals up in a lagging WAB rating and in a abstract that at the moment options only one victory over a projected at-large staff (NC State).
Big Ten
Locks: MichiganMichigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State, UCLA
Almost there: Iowa
Bubble: Indiana
Iowa is on the listing of teams that have wilted down the stretch however have not paid the worth since so many others are additionally struggling. The Hawkeyes have dropped six of their final eight, together with three straight. Playing No. 17 seed Maryland within the second spherical of the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday brings nothing besides threat.
MAC
Lock: Miami (Ohio)
The massive query within the MAC is whether or not it is going to change into a two-bid league. If Akron or one other non-Miami winner emerges, it is going to mark the league’s first time sending two teams to the Big Dance since 1999. The Zips are clearly the staff to watch. But bubble teams shall be rooting for the RedHawks so there is no such thing as a bid thief.
Mountain West
Lock: Utah State
Bubble: New Mexico
Longshot: San Diego State
New Mexico and San Diego State will have at the least some likelihood of at-large consideration in the event that they attain the Mountain West Tournament title sport. But there is no such thing as a situation the place both turns into a “lock” outdoors of successful the event. Utah State is 11-5 throughout Quad 1 and Quad 2, which is nice sufficient to be a lock even after three losses in 5 video games to shut the common season.
SEC
Locks: Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky
Almost there: Missouri, Texas A&M
Bubble: Texas, Auburn
Longshot: Oklahoma
Missouri and Texas A&M each have 5 Quad 1 wins and no losses outdoors the highest two quadrants. Both could be within the discipline as of Wednesday morning. They would each have good probabilities even when they misplaced their first SEC Tournament video games. But that does not imply they will safely be referred to as 100% locks simply but.
W.C.C.
Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Pretty shut: Saint Clare
We are utilizing “pretty close” as a substitute of “almost there” for Santa Clara because the Broncos have formally rested their case following Tuesday evening’s loss to Gonzaga within the WCC Tournament title sport. The Broncos added some fortification by beating Saint Mary’s within the semifinals to guarantee they’ll arrive at Selection above .500 throughout Quads 1 and a pair of.
