3 things to watch in Thunder-Suns Game 4

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The Oklahoma City Thunder are lapping the sector.

They’re the one group with a double-digit common scoring margin in the primary spherical, and so they’ve gained their three video games by an average of 20 points. Through Saturday, they’ve each the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense in the playoffs and, though the Phoenix Suns are the No. 8 seed, they’re actually not the weakest group in the sector.

But the Suns are dealing with an early elimination in their first-round series with the champs, having struggled on each ends of the ground.

Here are three things to watch because the Thunder go for the sweep in Monday’s Game 4 (9:30 ET, Peacock/NBC Sports):

1. To double or not

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander torched the Suns in Game 3, scoring a career-playoff-high 42 factors on 15-for-18 taking pictures from the sector and 11-for-12 on the free throw line.

He put a number of defenders via the wringer, whether or not they have been the participant initially guarding him on a possession or the participant who switched after a display screen.

We cannot anticipate comparable effectivity on Monday, however the Suns’ defensive recreation plan has to begin with slowing down the reigning MVP. They’ve struggled to defend Gilgeous-Alexander 1-on-1, and so they have not had a lot success when sending a double-team, both.

Through the primary three video games, Gilgeous-Alexander has been double-teamed on 28% of his touches, the best price amongst 123 gamers with at the least 50 complete touches via Saturday. The Suns have more and more doubled Gilgeous-Alexander in this collection, and the Thunder did their finest in opposition to the doubles in Game 3, scoring 30 factors on 21 probabilities when he drew a number of defenders to the ball.

Sometimes, Gilgeous-Alexander dealt with the double-teams himself, slicing past defenders that did not do a adequate job of chopping off his path to the basket. But when he was pressured to do away with the ball, his teammates made some performs:

The Suns will be higher by being much more aggressive with their double-teams. The major goal of the double is to get the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander’s arms.

But secondarily, it is vital to make the move out of the double as troublesome as attainable. When the double-teamer brings extra strain, he is extra doubtless to deflect the move or, at the least, make it go backwards and provides the protection a while to scramble again right into a no-advantage state of affairs.

Midway via the second quarter on Saturday, Oso Ighodaro got here with a robust double in opposition to Gilgeous-Alexander in the put up. It helped that the baseline acted as a 3rd defender, however the strain saved the MVP from getting off a robust move. He virtually turned it over and the Thunder misplaced their benefit:

There’s no proper reply for the Suns right here, and so they’ll doubtless combine things up in opposition to Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 4.

2. Who’s the second scorer?

The Suns’ degree of success when double-teaming Gilgeous-Alexander relies upon in half on the power of his teammates to make performs. And there’s clearly extra doubt in that regard with Jalen Williams on the shelf, nursing the hamstring harm he suffered in Game 2.

The Thunder began Ajay Mitchell in place of Williams in Game 3, and Mitchell had his least-efficient scoring recreation of the season among the many 56 in which he is tried at the least 5 pictures. His 15 factors got here on 5-for-20 taking pictures from the sector and 4-for-4 on the line, and his means to act as a secondary playmaker shall be below the highlight going ahead.

There’s a possibility for Chet Holmgren to play a much bigger function offensively, and whereas he scored simply 10 factors in Game 3, he was environment friendly and created three of his 5 buckets out of no-advantage conditions.

Most spectacular was his drive in opposition to Royce O’Neale and end over Ighodaro early in the fourth quarter, when Gilgeous-Alexander was off the ground:

Both Mitchell and Holmgren have been on the ground for the whole thing of Gilgeous-Alexander’s 10 minutes on the bench on Saturday, and we will anticipate that to be the case for so long as Williams is out. The Thunder scored simply 20 factors on 19 offensive possessions (105 per 100) in these minutes and might have to be higher in opposition to higher competitors in future rounds.

3. Can the Suns generate extra 3s?

It’s not good for the Suns that they’ve tried nine more mid-range shots than the Thunder in this collection. They’ve shot comparatively effectively (21-for-43, 48.8%) on these pictures, however until you are taking pictures from mid-range at Gilgeous-Alexander’s degree (55% this season), the maths is not going to work out effectively for you.

And as a heavy underdog, the Suns in all probability want to be taking pictures as many 3s as attainable to improve the variance in these video games.

Royce O’Neale shot 54% on corner 3s in the common season and is 3-for-3 from the corners in this collection, however three makes an attempt in three video games is not sufficient.

In a collection the place they need to be producing and taking pictures as many 3s as attainable, the Suns have taken a decrease proportion of their pictures from past the arc (43.5%) than they did in the common season (45.3%).

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John Schuhmann has coated the NBA for greater than 20 years. You can e mail him herediscover his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.