Orioles-Rays series preview: This is gonna be a tough one

Back in March, if somebody had mentioned that the primary Orioles-Rays series of 2026 would pit a 30-15 workforce in opposition to a 21-26 one, would you may have appropriately matched every workforce to their file?

In most preseason predictions of the AL East, pundits projected a tough, four-team race for the division title — and the Rays because the near-consensus last-place membership. Tampa Bay simply wasn’t anticipated to have the firepower to maintain up with the massive boys of the division. Most picked even the Orioles to complete forward of them, a prediction that appears laughable now.

The Rays have blown away all projections with a .667 profitable share and the American League’s finest file. It’s a scrappy, selfless squad that has gutted out a 9-1 file in one-run video games. And their return to Tropicana Field has been an unlimited success. After Hurricane Milton destroyed the dome’s roof in 2024, forcing the Rays to play all their 2025 dwelling video games on the Steinbrenner Field spring coaching ballpark, they’ve had a very joyful homecoming in 2026. The Rays are a league-best 16-5 at dwelling, and just lately received 11 consecutive video games at Tropicana.

As common, the important thing to the Rays’ success has been a stellar pitching workers. Their beginning rotation’s 2.93 ERA is one of the best in baseball, and in typical Rays trend, they’ve achieved it due to some unlikely sources. They signed 35-year-old journeyman Nick Martinez — profession ERA of 4.16 — and one way or the other remodeled him into one of one of the best pitchers within the recreation. Through 9 begins, Martinez has a stupendous 1.51 ERA and 274 ERA+ regardless of simply a 5.9 Okay/9 charge. Oh, positive, however when the Orioles signal some previous journeyman pitcher, he instantly falls aside. It’s simply the most recent instance of the Rays’ pitching coaches being very, excellent at what they do. Or possibly it is some sort of satan magic. But yearly, the Rays churn out nice pitchers, whether or not by growing them in their very own farm system or by discovering free-agent bargains.

The Rays’ bullpen is led by a acquainted face, former Oriole Bryan Baker, who has stepped up because the workforce’s nearer after Pete Fairbanks left in free company. Baker’s 11 saves are the second-most within the American League. I supported the Orioles’ commerce of Baker to the Rays final July, garnering the Birds a excessive draft decide that they used on Slater de Brun, however I need to admit that the O’s bullpen may use a man like Baker proper now. (And they ended up buying and selling Brun again to the Rays anyway.) Look for the all the time demonstrative Baker to preen and yell and fist-pump if he will get a save on this series, which was endearing when he did it for the Orioles however much less so when he does it in opposition to them.

On offense, the Rays may hardly be extra totally different from the Orioles. They barely hit homers — simply 36 this yr — however they lead the AL in batting common (.258) and are second in OBP (.330). Most notably, they’ve greater than 100 fewer strikeouts than the Birds (317 to 426). The Rays are a workforce that places the ball in play, and it has been working for them. They wreak havoc as soon as they’re on the bases as properly, with 50 steals, greater than twice as many because the Orioles (21). Even with out a lineup filled with fearsome sluggers, the Rays have a lot of how to place runs on the board.

That’s to not say they do not have any highly effective bats. The Rays’ lineup options a productive trio of Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and Yandy Díaz, who’ve mixed for 25 dingers, greater than two-thirds of the workforce’s whole. Aranda leads the AL with 34 RBIs, whereas Caminero, coming off a 45-homer, 110-RBI season, already has 11 dingers this yr. Oh, and he is simply 22 years previous. The Rays acquired Caminero as a prospect from Cleveland for Tobias Myers, whom the Orioles had traded to them for Tim Beckham. Pretty good sequence of trades from the Rays proper there.

Not every part is clicking for the Rays’ offense, although, and sadly the most important albatross has been Cedric Mullins. The longtime Orioles fan favourite, who signed a one-year, $7 million cope with Tampa Bay in December, has the second-worst OPS (.524) of any certified AL hitter. He has performed a strong heart discipline, which has saved him within the lineup most of the time, however the Rays may want to maneuver on if he would not begin hitting. I’ll by no means root in opposition to Cedric, so I hope he will get 12 hits on this series so long as the O’s win all three video games. Somehow I do not assume both of these issues will occur.

Game 1: Monday, 6:40 PM, MASN

LHP Trevor Rogers (2-4, 5.77) vs. LHP Shane McClanahan (4-2, 2.27)

There was a time when seeing Trevor Rogers on the mound would convey a smile to Orioles followers’ faces. That time, alas, seems to have handed. The southpaw, who entered the season because the Orioles’ ace, has regressed terribly in 2026, and he coughed up six runs in 4 innings to the Yankees after coming off the injured listing final week. After beginning the season with three straight high quality begins, Rogers has given up 17 earned runs in his final 4 outings (10.57 ERA). Rogers’ four-seamer, which final yr held batters to a .158 common and .252 SLG, has been rocked for a .296/.537 mark this season. If he would not get his go-to pitch found out quickly, it may be a lengthy yr for the lefty.

The battle of southpaws is severely tilted within the Rays’ favor with McClanahan, the Baltimore-born 29-year-old who’s the early favourite for Comeback Player of the Year. McClanahan was a two-time All-Star by simply his third main league season, however then missed two complete campaigns after present process Tommy John surgical procedure in 2023 and one other surgical procedure to deal with a nerve situation in his left tricep in 2025.

McClanahan lastly returned to the mound this yr and appears like he by no means left. He’s again to his classic, ace-like self, at the moment carrying a 21.2-inning scoreless streak that spans his final 4 outings. The Orioles cannot even hit in opposition to dangerous left-handed starters. What probability have they got in opposition to McClanahan? But I suppose we’ll watch anyway, as a result of we’re gluttons for punishment.

Game 2: Tuesday, 6:40 PM, MASN

RHP Kyle Bradish (2-5, 4.29) vs. RHP Griffin Jax (1-2, 3.91)

Is Kyle Bradish so again? Perhaps it is too quickly to say. But his final two outings have been one of the best he is appeared all yr, paying homage to his dominant 2023 efficiency. Against the Athletics he racked up 10 strikeouts in seven sturdy innings, and he adopted it up with six scoreless versus the Yankees final week. With Rogers having gone bust, it is extra vital than ever for Bradish to hold the O’s rotation. However, he has a nemesis on the Rays in Yandy Díaz, whose eight profession hits are tied for essentially the most that Bradish has allowed to any hitter. Taylor Walls, however, is 0-for-10 lifetime in opposition to the righty.

Jax had been solely a reliever for almost 4 full seasons earlier than the Rays started changing him to the rotation a few weeks in the past. They acquired the 31-year-old from Minnesota for Taj Bradley eventually yr’s commerce deadline. He has steadily stretched out in his final 4 begins, first working 2.1 innings, then 2.2, then 4.0, then 5.0. Three of these outings have been scoreless. His peripheral stats, although, point out hassle. Jax is permitting almost 1.5 baserunners per inning, thanks largely to a 5.5 BB/9 charge, so the O’s offense must be affected person and drive him to seek out the strike zone.

Game 3: Wednesday, 1:10 PM, MASN

RHP Shane Baz (1-5, 5.26) vs. TBD

Shane Baz Revenge Game incoming! For the primary time, Baz will pitch in opposition to the one workforce he’d ever performed for till this season. The righty went 17-17 with a 4.25 ERA in components of 4 seasons for Tampa Bay. The O’s gave up a hefty haul to amass Baz in December, together with three prospects who now rank among the many Rays’ prime 12 prospects on MLB Pipeline: Michael Forret (#8), Slater de Brun (#10), and Caden Bodine (#12).

Mike Elias and the Orioles appeared satisfied they may unlock one thing in Baz that the Rays could not, which in itself looks like a misguided proposition (see above concerning the Rays’ satan magic with pitchers). The O’s had been banking on the truth that Baz’s 4.87 ERA final yr was artificially inflated by his struggles at Steinbrenner Field (5.90 ERA in 16 begins). But to this point with the Orioles, Baz is having his worst season but, with a career-worst 1,519 WHIP and 9.8 H/9. On the plus aspect, he is coming off his finest outing as an Oriole (seven innings, three runs in opposition to a good Nationals offense), and he is pitching in his most acquainted ballpark, Tropicana Field, the place he has a 2.72 ERA in 10 profession begins.

How many video games do you assume the Orioles will win on this series? I’d accept the O’s stealing one recreation to maintain them afloat heading into their 10-game homestand. Let us know your predictions within the feedback.