Thunder vs. Spurs: Five big questions that will decide the Western Conference finals

The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are about to sq. off for the 2026 Western Conference crown, and with that, the NBA’s subsequent nice rivalry has formally arrived. We’ve recognized it was coming. We know it is not going anyplace for possibly the subsequent decade as arrange as these groups are for the future. This will be absolute theatre. Let’s get into 5 big questions heading into the sequence we have all been ready for.

1. Can SGA’s scoring degree again up?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is probably going about to win his second straight MVP. He has averaged effectively north of 30 PPG the final two common seasons, and he averaged 29.9 in final yr’s playoffs. He’s at 29.1 PPG to date in these playoffs, however the bulk of that quantity comes from his first-round explosion vs. the Suns. He “only” averaged 24.5 in opposition to the Lakers and even that quantity was juiced by a big 35-point efficiency in the clincher.

I do not suppose that’s going to be sufficient in opposition to the Spurs, even with Jalen Williams set to return. It’s a good guess that quite a lot of OKC’s peripheral manufacturing, or a minimum of effectivity, may take successful as Victor Wembanyama forces a bigger chunk of their offense outdoors of the paint (Chet Holmgrenas an example, solely averaged 10.5 factors on 38.7% capturing in opposition to the Spurs in the common season), and SGA goes to have to select up the slack.

I believe the Thunder wants one thing very near 30 PPG on this sequence from SGA, and even that could be conservative. Can he do that on a heavy food regimen of pull-up jumpers and 3-pointers? Of course. Will he? We’re about to seek out out.

2. Which staff is definitely deeper?

The depth on this sequence is off the charts. Both groups can simply go 10 deep. The Thunder are so loaded that Aaron Wigginswho would begin for lots of NBA teamswasn’t even in the rotation in opposition to the Lakers. Isaiah Joe solely performed seven minutes in the clincher, but when this factor turns right into a 3-point contest as OKC struggles to attain in the paint in opposition to Wemby, he could be a greater swing participant.

Look at it by means of the lens of non-star minutes. Through eight playoff video games, the Thunder have received SGA’s 105 bench minutes by 59 factors with a higher offensive ranking. Thank you, Ajay Mitchell. The Spurs, in the meantime, destroyed the Blazers and Wolves in Wemby’s minutes and stayed at +3 per recreation of their absences.

There’s a case to be made that Dylan Harper and the aforementioned Mitchell ought to each be beginning on this sequence. I doubt the Spurs go to that, a minimum of not straight away, however will the Thunder transfer Mitchell again to the bench with Jalen Williams set to return? Either manner, that’s a stud sixth man, and the balanced manufacturing continues from there.

So far in these playoffs, the Spurs have six gamers averaging double-digits whereas the Thunder principally have 5 (Isaiah Hartenstein is at 9.9, whereas Williams has solely performed two video games however we will definitely depend him as a high-end scorer).

I’ve extra questions about OKC’s prime 4 scorers than I do San Antonio’s; Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, Stephen Castle and Harper are rock strong, however Holmgren, as talked about above, has fought in opposition to Wemby this season, and Williams is coming again after a protracted damage absence.

Plus, the Thunder could be slightly too depending on Mitchell as a star-level scorer at this level. The hope is that Holmgren and Williams can lighten that load, but when not, the Spurs needn’t take away that a lot from Harper, who can dominate extra in stretches and as a non-scoring contributor (offensive rebounds and difficult protection, notably). I believe Harper is a bit higher than Mitchell at this level, all issues thought-about, and I give San Antonio’s depth, significantly on the perimeter (which is essential, as a result of Wembanyama alone accounts for Holmgren and Hartenstein), a slight nod as effectively.

3. Who wins a 3-point contest?

On paper, it seems like this may very well be extra of a 3-point sequence than both of those groups (who common north of 100 mixed paint factors per recreation in the playoffs) could be taking part in. The components could be the Thunder not with the ability to end in the paint on account of Wembanyama’s presence, and the Spurs not with the ability to get there, a minimum of not persistently, in the first place in opposition to OKC’s steady of perimeter defensive horses (after which, even when they do, Holmgren would arguably be the world’s greatest rim protector if Wemby did not exist).

That stated, Castle, specifically, had quite a lot of success bullying his method to inside buckets in opposition to the Thunder this season (he is a younger Jimmy Butler is so some ways). He’s in all probability San Antonio’s No. 2 man at this level, and even when he is compelled extra outdoors he is making 44% of his nearly 5 3-pointers per recreation to date in these playoffs.

He’s key on the different finish as effectively, and he’ll draw the foremost SGA project. Having to undergo Castle simply to get to Wembanyama, with San Antonio’s wings sucking down to chop off penetration much more, is a recipe for many kick-out 3s. Can Lu Dort make sufficient of them? Alex Caruso? These will be the guys San Antonio will be trying to go away.

Let’s say each groups must take and make extra 3s than they’re accustomed to. They’re each capturing an actual 38.4% clip in the playoffs to date. It’s yet one more a part of this extremely even matchup that feels nearly too near name.

4. Can the Spurs survive OKC’s physicality?

This is maybe the issue on this sequence. San Antonio is tremendous bodily, too, however OKC mauls you, and they will get away with quite a lot of it; the Spurs have to just accept this and discover methods to provide by means of it. Wemby can’t get into foul bother as the Thunder are going to check his persistence.

There are two methods to have a look at OKC’s physicality. It may very well be a shock to the Spurs initially, however as the sequence goes alongside they will adapt, or they will be prepared for it, however over time it will put on them down. Either manner, this can be a large problem for a younger staff that, outdoors of Harrison Barnes (who is not even a big a part of the rotation), is about to expertise a degree of deep-playoff drive that they’ve by no means felt earlier than.

This is OKC’s largest edge. Across all 48 minutes they’ll put 5 guys on the courtroom who can beat you up and switch you over with no single weak hyperlink to assault. OKC leads the playoffs with 22.9 PPG off turnovers, and the Spurs are going to must discover a method to be safe with the ball by means of all that strain.

5. Which Chet Holmgren will present up?

I touched on this earlier, however Holmgren fought mightily in opposition to Wembanyama and the Spurs this season. It was a big cause why San Antonio took 4 of the 5 matchups, which I do not put an excessive amount of weight on, however it will probably’t be discounted coming into this sequence. The Spurs know they’ll beat the Thunder. That’s half the battle.

OKC’s equation modifications fairly a bit if Holmgren emerges as a legit No. 2 scorer to take some weight off of Mitchell and Williams having to do that. He’s averaging 18.6 PPG on 60/39/88 capturing splits to date, but it surely’s not the Lakers, in opposition to whom he averaged 20 with a big 24 and 12 exhibiting in the clincher, on the different facet.

Holmgren takes this Wemby matchup private. Everyone is aware of that. He tried to do an excessive amount of of their regular-season matchups, searching his personal buckets outdoors the offense. It’s a high-quality line. He must be aggressive, however it will probably’t be at the value of his effectivity or OKC’s total half-court rhythm. If he will get badly outplayed by Wemby, it is bother for OKC.