Why Caitlin Clark’s poor ball security means you should fade the Indiana Fever against the Phoenix Mercury
After shedding each in a back-to-back against the Atlanta Dream, the Indiana Fever (9-7) start one other two-game sequence at dwelling vs. the Phoenix Mercury (5-12) Monday. At FanDuel, Indiana’s moneyline is -290 and is a -7.5 favourite on a 177.5 whole as of 1:30 pm ET.
Before shedding their earlier two video games to Atlanta, Indy had a four-game successful streak. Phoenix crushed the Seattle Storm 93-73 in its final recreation, snapping a four-game shedding skid.
This is the first Mercury-Fever recreation of the season. Phoenix beat Indiana in two of their three conferences final 12 months. However, Indy lined the unfold twice, and Caitlin Clark did not play in any of these video games.
ANGEL REESE AND CAITLIN CLARK EXCHANGE WORDS IN SECOND DREAM-FEVER MEETING IN THREE DAYS
Caitlin Clark of the Indiana Fever drives to the basket against Angel Reese of the Atlanta Dream throughout the second quarter at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 20, 2026. (Colin Hubbard/Getty Images)
Over his final 5 video games, Clark is scoring 26.0 factors on 49.4% capturing and averaging 8.6 assists. But she continues to be careless with the ball; Clark averages a WNBA-worst 4.8 turnovers per recreation. This is my favourite motive for taking the factors with the Mercury Monday.
Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury +7.5, right down to +6.5
Clark’s mediocre protection and poor decision-making are why she has a -4.3 on/off web ranking this 12 months. she has 48 turnovers from “bad passes,” which is greater than 3 times as many as his next-closest teammate.
As I’ve written 1,000,000 occasions when handicapping hoops, the “battle for possessions” is the most necessary factor in basketball. This is the place the matchup favors the Mercury, who’ve higher turnover charges on each ends of the flooring.
Caitlin Clark debuts new Nike signature shoe in loss to Atlanta Dream. (Photo by AJ Mast/NBAE by way of Getty Images) ((Photo by AJ Mast/NBAE by way of Getty Images))
Furthermore, Phoenix is the oldest workforce in the Association, that includes six-time All-Stars, ahead Alyssa Thomas and wing DeWanna Bonner. The Mercury’s veterans can benefit from an Indiana workforce that makes too many errors.
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Also, I’m simply going off the stats as a result of I do not watch a lot WNBA, however I’m fascinated by Thomas’ recreation. She has made seven WNBA All-Defensive Teams, ranks second on Phoenix in PER and leads the Mercury in assists per recreation regardless of not capturing a single 3-pointer this 12 months.
I like that Phoenix runs its offense via a 6-foot-2 ahead (Thomas) who would not take dangerous pictures against an Indiana workforce that does not have a robust perimeter protection. Plus, the Fever are lethal in transition, however the Mercury can management the move since they’re going to doubtless win the “battle for possessions”.
Caitlin Clark and the Fever put up a robust efficiency however lose to Atlanta Dream. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) ((Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images))
Meanwhile, Phoenix figures to have a “strength-on-weakness” edge on the foul line. The Mercury enable the fewest free-throw makes an attempt per recreation from their opponents, and the Fever allows the most.
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Lastly, Phoenix has a relaxation edge over Indiana on this recreation. This is the Mercury’s third recreation in the final week, whereas the Fever is enjoying its fourth recreation over that span. For the report, I’m anticipating Indy to win Monday, however Phoenix +7.5 is a “plus-EV” wager given its matchup edges.
Prediction: Fever 79, Mercury 76
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