Why Baker Mayfield’s contract means the QB market could burst

Fifty-five million {dollars} per yr for Baker Mayfield? Seriously?!

Well, sure and no. Mayfield received his new deal from the Buccaneers on Tuesday, and it was a doozy. But it was additionally a kind of win-win NFL contract outcomes the place the participant and agent get to brag about one quantity whereas the group will get to say, “Yeah, but …”

Mayfield was already making $27 million in 2026. He now makes $37 million in 2026, $50 million in 2027, $50 million in 2028 and $55 million in 2029. That’s 4 years and $192 million, which works out to $48 million per yr over 4 years. But the “new money” in the deal — cash he did not have already got coming to him — totals $165 million, and the Bucs added three years to his present deal. Over three years, the common of $165 million is $55 million per yr.

That’s why each side can declare victory and name it a win-win.

But you recognize who else comes out of this wanting like winners? Every different quarterback who’s or could be arising for a contract extension inside the subsequent yr.

Mayfield is a very good participant. His profession appeared destined for an early finish just some years after he was the No. 1 decide in the 2018 draft, however he has discovered a house in Tampa, and it agrees with him. He has averaged 32 landing passes and 4,079 yards per season, and he gained two NFC South division titles in three years with the Bucs. He has been good for them — and so they’ve been good for him.

But $55 million per yr places him in a tie with 5 different guys for third-highest common wage in the league. Dak Prescott makes $60 million per yr. Patrick Mahomes‘ new-money common in his most recent deal was $64 million. Mahomes is the solely quarterback who has even threatened — not to mention handed — Prescott’s wage in the two years since his deal was accomplished. Mahomes can be the just one with two MVP trophies, three Super Bowl titles and a 17-4 profession playoff report. Mahomes is his personal class.

The 5 who’re tied with Mayfield at $55 million? Matthew Stafford (has gained a Super Bowl and an MVP award), Joe Burrow (has been to a Super Bowl), Josh Allen (has gained MVP), Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence (uhh … have wonderful timing).

In eight NFL seasons, Mayfield has made two Pro Bowls, and his highest end in MVP voting is eleventh. His place is amongst the final two names in that earlier paragraph, not the first three. But his presence there may be what ought to lastly make it a crossable threshold for the subsequent group. Unlike Love and Lawrence, Mayfield wasn’t benefiting from a red-hot extension market at the time he signed. This was a quiet yr for top-of-the-market quarterback offers.

Mayfield had some leverage — his contract was set to void three days after the Super Bowl and set off an immovable $30 million dead-money cap cost for 2027 — however the Bucs could have let him stroll and trusted of their capacity to discover a good, reasonably priced resolution. You know, the manner they did when Tom Brady retired and so they signed Mayfield in the first place. The Buccaneers seem to have executed this deal as a result of Mayfield has been a very good quarterback for them, and that is what actually good quarterbacks’ contracts price now.

This is unbelievable information for anybody who considers himself a very good NFL quarterback and is (or will likely be) searching for a contract extension between now and subsequent summer season. And there are lots of people on this class. The 2027 quarterback extension market could be the busiest we have seen shortly. And that’s the reason 2027 needs to be the yr when one or (possible) extra quarterbacks attempt to be a part of Prescott and Mahomes in the $60 million membership. Many of them ought to, no less than, get previous the $55 million that we’ll now, for the function of this train, name the “Baker Line.”

Here’s a take a look at the quarterbacks in these conversations.

Jackson enters this season with two years left on his contract. He is making $52 million this yr and is scheduled to make $52 million subsequent yr. The group approached him about an extension this previous offseason, however nothing got done.

Jackson has large leverage as a result of his deal features a clause that prohibits the Ravens from utilizing the franchise or transition tags on him when he (hypothetically) turns into a free agent in 2028; it additionally has a no-trade clause. So, even when the Ravens could not get an extension executed by subsequent offseason and determined to commerce Jackson reasonably than let him play out his contract yr, he could decide his vacation spot and veto any commerce he did not like.

Is he over the Baker Line? He is, by two MVP awards if nothing else. Jackson is the one man on this group who already has a robust case to surpass Prescott’s common annual wage of $60 million. It could be surprising and silly at this level for him to conform to something much less. Imagine if Jackson have been to remain wholesome for 2 extra years, play lights-out in each of them and grow to be an unrestricted free agent in spring 2028 with no franchise tag to restrict his earnings potential? What would he get … $70 million per yr? $80 million?

Entering his third yr in the NFL, Maye will likely be eligible for a contract extension each time the Patriots’ season ends. Having completed second in MVP voting and led the group to the Super Bowl in his second season, Maye would have had a case to be over the Baker Line if he had been allowed to barter an extension this offseason. (CBA guidelines say you need to wait till after the participant’s third yr.) The Patriots have a fifth-year choice for 2028, which might purchase them time subsequent spring to work on this.

Is he over the Baker Line? Right now, in all probability. Mayfield has by no means been to the Super Bowl or positioned second in MVP voting. If Maye have been to undergo a big damage or expertise dramatic regression from his 2025 efficiency, he is likely to be in a state of affairs just like the one C.J. Stroud is in proper now, with the group selecting up the choice and ready to see extra earlier than committing. But (Wednesday night‘s fourth-quarter meltdown apart) that feels unlikely.

I’m grouping these three collectively as a result of they’re in very related conditions. Maye’s 2024 first-round classmates have but to achieve the Super Bowl (which is why he received his personal entry right here), however every has proven loads of the promise that led their groups to draft them the place they did.

Daniels gained Offensive Rookie of the Year and took the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game in his rookie season, then accidents derailed his second yr. Nix helped the Broncos attain the AFC Championship Game final season, although he could not play in it as a result of he broke his ankle throughout one among the ultimate performs of Denver’s time beyond regulation playoff victory over the Bills the week earlier than. Williams struggled in his first yr however actually took off final season as soon as the Bears employed Ben Johnson as their head coach. Williams did not get to the NFC Championship Game, however the Bears took the Rams to overtime the week earlier than in the divisional spherical.

All three of those guys can possible depend on their groups selecting up their fifth-year choices subsequent spring for 2028 if they cannot get offers executed earlier than then. The different 2024 first-rounders have been Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. and Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy, who do not but benefit a lot point out in a dialog like this.

Are they over the Baker Line? It relies upon. But given their credentials and accomplishments to date, every ought to get there so long as they present enchancment reasonably than regression in Year 3.

The second decide in the 2023 draft had his fifth-year choice for 2027 picked up in May, however he nonetheless hasn’t secured an extension from the Texans, a group that’s as proactive and beneficiant as any in the league in terms of veteran contract extensions. He was Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 and has reached the second spherical of the playoffs each season he has been in the league. But his efficiency in final season’s playoffs price Houston an opportunity at the Super Bowl, and Stroud properly seems to have determined he’d be higher off negotiating subsequent spring after a robust 2026 than doing it now.

Is he over the Baker Line? No, however he is betting on his personal capacity to get there. The Texans have Super Bowl hopes, with a championship-caliber protection that wants Stroud to play the manner he did as a rookie. If he does — and particularly in the event that they make a deep playoff run — he’ll have the ability to high not solely Mayfield but additionally Prescott.

Young was picked one spot forward of Stroud at the high of the 2024 draft, however he has not loved the similar stage of success. He had a tough rookie season, then received benched for Andy Dalton early in his second season. Young recovered from that benching to complete 2024 robust, and he confirmed continued growth in 2025, main the Panthers to an NFC South title (albeit with an 8-9 report) and a playoff look wherein Carolina gave the favored Rams a tough time earlier than bowing out.

Similar to Stroud, Young was eligible for an extension this offseason however did not get one. The Panthers clearly need to see extra earlier than committing long run.

Is he over the Baker Line? No, and this season must go extremely properly for each Young and the Panthers to get him there. Carolina picked up his fifth-year choice for 2027, so there isn’t any rush on this example, which feels as if it could nonetheless go a number of methods.

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Does Sam Darnold get the credit score he deserves?

Hurts signed his extension the similar yr Jackson signed his (2023). Hurts had simply been to the Super Bowl and lost to the Chiefs. Two years later, he turned a Super Bowl MVP and champion. Hurts has three years left on his contract, together with 2026, at $51.5 million per yr. This yr’s cash is all assured, as is $22 million of subsequent yr’s wage.

The Eagles are coming off a disappointing season, particularly offensively, and an offseason that noticed them completely revamp their offense and trade away high broad receiver A.J. Brown. All eyes in Philadelphia are on whether or not Hurts can grasp new coordinator Sean Mannion’s system and thrive in it.

Is he over the Baker Line? For certain. Hurts has been to 2 Super Bowls and gained one. He has a 3.67 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his 10 profession playoff video games, of which he has gained six. You can level out all of the flaws you need, however there’s simply no manner a company has the stage of success the Eagles have had the previous 5 years if the quarterback is not good.

If Hurts have been in a renegotiation now and demanded to make greater than Mayfield, it could be arduous to inform him he is fallacious. But this train assumes he’ll be in a renegotiation subsequent spring, and there isn’t any approach to understand how that can go till we all know how this season goes. If Hurts prospers in the new offense and the Eagles win a ton of video games, he is prone to be in line for one thing in the $60-plus million vary. If he flops and so they miss the playoffs, it is not out of the query to suppose the Eagles would look to make a change. (Remember how Hurts received the job in the first place, so quickly after they’d prolonged Carson Wentz.)

If it is one thing in the center — offense begins sluggish, picks it up late and reveals promise, and so forth. — then Hurts and the Eagles in all probability determine some sort of Band-Aid resolution that places off the massive determination till after 2027. Fair or not, it feels as if there’s quite a lot of stress on Hurts this season to indicate as soon as once more that he belongs at the high of this market.

Darnold signed a three-year, $100.5 million contract with the Seahawks as a free agent in spring 2025. He had simply helped lead the Vikings to a 14-3 report and a playoff look in 2024. And in his first yr in Seattle, the Seahawks went 14-3 and gained the Super Bowl.

No extension was supplied to Darnold, who had already earned one other $4 million in incentives final season based mostly on efficiency and group success. He has $27.5 million in assured cash this yr, and he is scheduled to earn one other $35.5 million in 2027. The 2027 cash will not be assured, although $10 million of it can grow to be assured if he is nonetheless on the Seahawks’ roster March 15.

Is he over the Baker Line? Yeah, at this level, if you happen to have been his agent, you’d should say he’s, proper? He has a 3-1 playoff report and a Super Bowl title. Mayfield is 2-3 in playoff video games and has by no means superior previous the second spherical. You may suppose Mayfield is best, however these guys are likely to receives a commission on what they’ve completed. And Darnold could make the case that he has completed greater than Mayfield.

If the Seahawks have one other good season, Darnold — who left the season opener due to a hip injury, although it does not sound as if he’ll miss an excessive amount of time — could be in line for an extension. He’d be fairly the take a look at case. The Seahawks have been fairly adamant about not overpaying quarterbacks, and their lack of motion on a possible Darnold extension this offseason tells us they consider he is appropriately compensated.

But Darnold’s take care of Seattle got here one yr after Mayfield’s first extension with the Bucs, and the offers have been nearly similar. This time, Darnold and his agent ought to have the ability to level to Mayfield’s contract once more and say Darnold deserves no less than as a lot. If that is the case, would the Seahawks do it? Or would they do what they did with Russell Wilson and Geno Smith when these guys requested for greater than the group thought they have been price — commerce him?

Goff received his extension in the offseason of 2024, when quarterbacks reminiscent of Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa have been getting contracts. Goff’s got here in at $53 million per yr in new cash — just below what’s now the Baker line. Goff has been to the Super Bowl with the Rams and received shut with the Lions, who’ve a report of 50-35-1 in video games he has began for them. Signed via 2028, he is set to earn $55 million this yr, $40 million subsequent yr and $47 million in 2028. At this time, $18 million of his 2027 compensation is assured.

Is he over the Baker line? Probably proper on it, if not somewhat bit over. But that is one other state of affairs that possible relies on what occurs this season. How the Lions really feel about Goff and the state of their championship window basically subsequent February will go a great distance in figuring out how motivated they’re to increase his contract, which has two years left, regardless of how he performs at age 32.

Talk a couple of make-or-break yr. Murray was owed about $37 million assured from the Cardinals for this season. They launched him, and that allowed the Vikings to signal him for a veteran-minimum $1.3 million and depart the Cardinals to pay the remaining $35.7 million. The Vikings have named Murray their starter forward of 2024 first-round decide J.J. McCarthy. Murray’s contract features a clause that prohibits them from utilizing the franchise or transition tags on him subsequent spring. So, if he has an enormous yr, they don’t have any manner of conserving him off the unfettered free agent market.

Is he over the Baker Line? No manner, however that no-franchise clause is a whopper when it comes to leverage. If Murray performs nice and hits free company subsequent yr at 29 years previous, he’ll sail previous Mayfield — and Prescott.