United States Looks to Iran’s North for Allies
As Iran convulses from domestic upheaval and the Trump administration contemplate army strikes, the United States has additionally been quietly but meaningfully ramping up its engagement with two international locations north of Iran: Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Trump administration has been deeply concerned in diplomatic meditation between the 2 long-term enemies, constructing on US efforts to improve financial hyperlinks within the strategically necessary Caucasus area by means of worldwide commerce and infrastructure growth. US efforts there could level to it dealing with different crises world wide, in addition to managing strategic competitors with each Russia and China.
While overshadowed by bigger and extra high-profile wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the Caucasus area isn’t any stranger to army battle. From the late Nineteen Eighties till just lately, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in a protracted state of struggle over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
As Iran convulses from domestic upheaval and the Trump administration contemplate army strikes, the United States has additionally been quietly but meaningfully ramping up its engagement with two international locations north of Iran: Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Trump administration has been deeply concerned in diplomatic meditation between the 2 long-term enemies, constructing on US efforts to improve financial hyperlinks within the strategically necessary Caucasus area by means of worldwide commerce and infrastructure growth. US efforts there could level to it dealing with different crises world wide, in addition to managing strategic competitors with each Russia and China.
While overshadowed by bigger and extra high-profile wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the Caucasus area isn’t any stranger to army battle. From the late Nineteen Eighties till just lately, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in a protracted state of struggle over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Following inconclusive efforts at meditation by the now-dissolved Minsk Group, which was co-chaired by Russia, the United States, and France, Azerbaijan launched army operations in 2020 after which once more in 2023 to reclaim misplaced territory in Nagorno-Karabakh and the encompassing areas from Armenian management. Russia, which has lengthy served as Armenia’s safety guarantor and had troops stationed within the area, didn’t intervene due to the dearth of treaty commitments to territories exterior Armenia’s internationally acknowledged borders and, later, its struggle in Ukraine.
Azerbaijan’s army operations in Nagorno-Karabakh served to obtain one in all Baku’s long-standing objectives: not simply regaining misplaced territory however utilizing these good points to reestablish and improve connections to areas that had been minimize off due to the extended battle. This included its exclave of Nakhchivan and western territory nearer to Turkeywith which Azerbaijan has shut diplomatic and safety ties.
That need for connectivity was why Azerbaijan rapidly pivoted its focus after the army battle ended to a peace deal and normalizing diplomatic relations with Armenia as a way to facilitate such regional connectivity efforts. Armenian Prime Minster Nikol Pashinyan, who got here to energy through a preferred revolution in 2018 and sensed a post-conflict alternative to escape of Armenia’s landlocked place and the vulnerabilities of overreliance on Russia, agreed to have interaction with Azerbaijan in diplomatic normalization regardless of robust opposition from some teams at house.
Talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan made sluggish and regular progress, together with addressing points akin to border delimitation and easing hurdles to commerce. It was the return of the Trump administration in late 2024 that accelerated the peace course of. As a part of US President Donald Trump’s efforts to burnish his diplomatic and peacemaking credentials, each international locations sought to receive US backing and assist for their efforts. Last August, each Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Pashinyan joined Trump on the White House, the place they held a high-profile ceremony to signal a peace deal, together with a mutual declaration that the 2 have been headed for the ultimate ratification of a deal that might finish the long-standing battle.
A vital element of the 2025 settlement was the creation of a significant transit corridorwhich will probably be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The US-backed infrastructure venture will hyperlink Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan by means of Armenian territory through street, rail, and pipeline. According to the announcement, the United States may have unique growth rights within the space for 99 years, and the newest discussions have targeted on the United States proudly owning a 74 p.c share within the TRIPP Development Company, with Armenia retaining the remaining stake.
Although the territory in query is comparatively small (spanning simply 26 miles), the regional connectivity implications are doubtlessly huge. Not solely is the Caucasus area wealthy in vitality sources like oil and pure gasoline (as is Central Asia simply across the Caspian Sea), but it surely additionally sits on a significant transit level. Azerbaijan already exports its oil and gasoline to Turkey and additional on to Europe, serving as an necessary supply of diversification for Europe’s vitality reliance on Russia. The hall may additionally present a shorter passage for transportation critical natural resources from Central Asia, together with rare-earth minerals, to Western markets.
China has additionally been searching for to improve its engagement within the area, with the Caucasus and Central Asia serving as key nodes within the so-called “Middle Corridor” route, which links China to Europe.
However, there are a number of challenges that might complicate US engagement within the Caucasus, notably within the type of increasing infrastructure connectivity through the TRIPP and different initiatives. The first is that the diplomatic normalization course of between Armenia and Azerbaijan has but to be formally concluded. A key occasion to watch will probably be Armenia’s parliamentary elections in June. While poll numbers present that Pashinyan’s ruling celebration is at the moment within the lead, there are nonetheless opposition groups inside Armenia and overseas that may make the election an important take a look at for Pashinyan and the peace agenda.
Another problem comes from exterior actors. Russia has made no secret of its opposition to East-West connectivity initiatives within the Caucasus, particularly those who serve to supplant its position as a significant vitality supplier and transit nation and those who contain Western nations just like the United States. And whereas Moscow has actually seen its affect in Armenia and the Caucasus diminish, Russia stays lively within the area and has come from many theaters, from Ukraine to Africa, that it may play a spoiler position the place it feels its pursuits are threatened. The protracted Ukraine battle actually limits the Kremlin’s bandwidth to accomplish that, but it surely doesn’t eradicate it totally.
Iran shares Russia’s opposition to such East-West connectivity initiatives for lots of the identical causes (in addition to Azerbaijan’s financial and safety ties with Israel), and its escalating tensions with the United States are seemingly to create larger uncertainty in that regard. If the Iranian authorities can survive its personal home turbulence, this might drive Tehran and Moscow even additional collectively in opposing such US exercise within the area. But if vital political modifications in Iran come because of unrest and stress from the United States, then this might create additional momentum for initiatives just like the TRIPP.
Many gamers have their very own pursuits in shaping the area. US efforts to assist normalize ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan and advance the TRIPP will function an important hinge for Eurasian geopolitics—and a possible mannequin for efforts elsewhere.
