The stock market is expected to move big on Friday’s CPI. Here are the possible scenarios
The results of Friday’s consumer price index reading could set the tone for how the major stock averages end a rocky week, according to JPMorgan’s trading desk. Markets have been turbulent this week, as investors continue to shift away from technology names in favor of cyclical sectors. The S&P 500, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all on pace for losses on the week. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect January’s core consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to gain 0.3% month over month. They also forecast a 2.5% year-over-year rise for core CPI. In a Thursday note to clients, the JPMorgan trading desk outlined several scenarios for Friday’s CPI report and analyzed how each might move stocks. JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli expects core CPI to rise 0.39% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, he sees core CPI jumping 2.6%. With December’s retail sales coming in flat and recent labor data in focus, this CPI print has become especially important, the bank’s trading desk wrote. “While this week’s data releases may still show a Goldilocks environment, there is the risk of a stagflationary reading,” JPMorgan’s trading desk said. “We agree that a hawkish print is more likely than a dovish print, but we do not see the market reacting strongly to a stagflationary print, eg, Cyclicals sold, Staples sold, strong rebalance into things like Secular Growth / MegaCap Tech / Healthcare.” The trading desk’s scenarios for Friday’s CPI reading are listed below, alongside the probability of each happening: Core CPI MoM prints above 0.45%, 5% chance: The S&P 500 could lose 1.25% to 2.5%. Core CPI MoM comes in between 0.4% and 0.45%, 25% chance: The S&P 500 could fluctuate anywhere between losing 0.75% and gaining 0.25%. Core CPI MoM lands between 0.35% and 0.4%, 42.5% chance: The S&P 500 could advance 0.25% to 0.75%. Core CPI MoM is between 0.3% and 0.35%, 22.5% chance: The S&P 500 could gain 1% to 1.5%. Core CPI MoM prints below 0.3%, 5% chance: The S&P 500 could gain 1.25% to 1.75%. The options market is pricing in its own odds of a roughly 1.1% move on Feb. 13, as of Tuesday’s close.
