Tennis Best Bets Today: Mutua Madrid Open picks for Thursday, April 23
The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open is underway on the Caja Magica in Madrid, Spain, and the clay-court season solely heats up from right here. We’ve damaged down the day’s greatest tennis betting picks for Madrid, digging into matchup techniques, floor tendencies, and present type to seek out the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you are betting the moneyline, sport unfold, set unfold, or complete, our 2026 Mutua Madrd Open greatest bets are constructed that can assist you revenue. I’m dropping a few of my favourite performs for Thursday, April 23 beneath, however be sure to additionally monitor the picks page all through the day. I usually have a couple of extra picks over there, plus I often add performs based mostly on how strains are transferring. That’s additionally the place Gill Alexander posts his greatest bets.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
This has been a brutal season for Dimitrov, as he is 2-8 because the begin of the yr. Dimitrov additionally comes into this match having misplaced three straight — and 7 of his final eight. The Bulgarian has now fallen all the way in which to No. 137 within the ATP rankings, which is wild for a former world No. 3. The 34-year-old additionally has a difficult opening matchup, as Daniel Vallejo may be very comfy on clay. In reality, Daniel Vallejo has already gained two matches this match, getting by way of qualifying to guide his spot in the primary draw.
Despite all of that, I’m treating this as a reduction on a top-15 participant within the sport. Dimitrov did not out of the blue neglect tips on how to play tennis. He’s simply looking for some consolation on courtroom after having handled severe accidents lately. But you recognize what? The indisputable fact that Dimitrov hasn’t needed to take care of any important ache not too long ago is a win. As lengthy as he is in a position to keep on the courtroom, he ought to break by way of and discover his sport once more. Why cannot he do it right here?
Dimitrov is a significantly better server than Daniel Vallejo, and that needs to be large on these courts. Dimitrov’s backhand slice can be a serious weapon on lower-bouncing surfaces, and that ought to give him a pleasant go-to shot in rallies right here. I additionally imagine that an in-form Dimitrov would dominate a match like this along with his forehand. That stated, if the Bulgarian reveals up in first rate form, I see him discovering a approach by way of.
Bet: Dimitrov ML (-106 – 1.5 models)
Alycia Parks vs. Ann Li
Parks is among the most up-and-down gamers on the WTA Tour proper now, but it surely’s onerous to put off her at plus-money odds right here. Parks is coming off a stable run in Stuttgart, the place she went to the Round of 16 and put up a superb combat towards Mirra Andreeva. The American has additionally gained three matches in Madrid already, profitable in straight units towards Elina Avanesyan and Ksenia Efremova in qualifying. She then earned one other straight-set win over Elisabetta Cocciaretto within the opening spherical.
The win over Cocciaretto is a tough one to disregard as Parks will get able to face Li. Cocciaretto is a participant who has some severe rally tolerance, so Parks discovering a approach by way of him ought to imply good issues when taking a look at this match within the Round of 64. Parks has a booming serve and plenty of energy from the baseline. However, staying stable and avoiding expensive errors will be a difficulty for her. Well, with Parks managing the whole lot effectively proper now, I do not see any purpose she will’t beat Li in server-friendly circumstances. This is a coin-flip match, which is not mirrored within the odds.
Bet: Parks ML (+119)
Camila Osorio vs. Naomi Osaka
Osaka beat Osorio in a three-set match at Indian Wells, incomes a 6-1, 3-6, 6-1 victory within the desert. However, whereas these aren’t essentially the most easy hard-court circumstances on this planet, they’re nonetheless onerous courts. Well, Osaka is 182-89 on onerous courts in her profession. Meanwhile, she’s simply 29-29 on clay. That stated, we’re about to see Osaka on its very worst floor, whereas we’re about to see Osorio on its greatest floor.
Osorio is a ridiculous 54-24 on clay in her profession, so she’s really elite when competing on the filth. And whereas it is a extra server-friendly clay-court match than most, Osorio ought to have a bonus in a lot of the longer rallies right here. Also, the truth that these circumstances are variety to servers might assist her maintain somewhat simpler than she did when these two met within the BNP Paribas Open.
Osorio additionally did beat Osaka at Indian Wells final yr, profitable 6-4, 6-4 within the first spherical. I say that to say that this has been a aggressive head-to-head lately, and I can see issues tilting the Colombian’s approach on crimson clay.
Bet: Osorio ML (+100 – 1.5 models)
NOTE: While solely three picks are written up right here, I often have extra on the Pro Picks web page. I attempt to choose the performs I write up based mostly on participant recognition. Some of the picks on the Pro Picks web page are higher-confidence picks.
