Pep Guardiola tore up his own playbook against Real Madrid – it could be his biggest mistake

When it was put to Pep Guardiola on Tuesday evening that Alvaro Arbeloa had predicted the Manchester City supervisor to spring a shock or two, he grinned, nodded his head and mentioned, sarcastically — or so it appeared — “a lot of surprises.”

Well, he was not being sarcastic, was he? Twenty-four hours later, a considerably unfancied Real Madrid beat Manchester City 3-0 after Guardiola ripped up his plans from latest weeks, and arguably a basis of his whole strategy as supervisor.

Defensive errors have been an enormous a part of the story, the type that can’t actually be legislated for regardless of the line-up, however Guardiola’s attack-minded staff misplaced their early power after Madrid’s first aim. They weren’t constructed to shuffle the ball round solemnly, which occurred as a result of Madrid tore by them, sapping their enthusiasm.

The beginning line-up, owing to Guardiola’s longstanding status for ‘overthinking’, had develop into the biggest story.

“I would be very surprised if he doesn’t change any structure on how the team plays or attacks,” Arbeloa had mentioned of Guardiola at his pre-match press convention. “He thinks a lot.”

Some eyebrows have been raised earlier than kick-off when Guardiola duly named a significantly totally different staff from latest weeks, though it didn’t, on the time, really feel like a significant misstep. It did by the tip.

That mentioned, Guardiola disputes the concept he really made that many modifications in any respect.

“There were not many changes,” he mentioned at first of his reply. “Rotation we have done in Newcastle, I played nine different players,” he mentioned on the finish of it.

In latest weeks, City have typically performed with a 4-2-2-2 — a ‘field’ in midfield, with two on the base and two on the tip. Sometimes it can look extra like a diamond, however it is slim in nature, with the width offered by the full-backs.

Nico O’Reilly has been a key a part of the midfield set-up, Rayan Ait-Nouri has changed him at left again and Matheus Nunes has performed the identical width-providing job on the opposite aspect, as he has all season.

O’Reilly’s presence in midfield has complemented Bernardo Silva and Rodri, and between them, they’ve shaped a powerful unit. The fourth midfielder has modified a bit, however Jeremy Doku and Rayan Cherki have performed properly within the center, behind Erling Haaland and Antoine Semenyo up entrance, often.

On Wednesday evening, there was little of that. Nunes was out solely, as was Ait-Nouri. O’Reilly was again at left-back and Guardiola introduced again his wingers, but additionally caught with Semenyo and Haaland up entrance. Bernardo and Rodri regarded uncovered.

“How many times has Nico O’Reilly played left-back this season, how many times?” Guardiola requested again, referring to his determination to maneuver the 20-year-old again to a task he has performed many instances over the previous yr. “The solely factor we adjusted was (Abdukodir) Khusanov in that space as a result of with Vinicius Junior in that space, we would like a man who can management that.

“Savinho performed extremely properly against Newcastle, Jeremy (Doku) is at all times an unimaginable risk, individuals arrived, expertise from Bernardo and Rodri, now we have runners with Nico and Antoine within the heart of the aim, the set items, that was the concept.

“Rotation we have done in Newcastle, I played nine different players. Understand what I’m saying, but the target is wingers to try to drop them, people in the middle, in the pockets to arrive close to the box, control to the second striker with experienced players, fast players behind, that was the idea.”

When Guardiola speaks like that, itemizing his logic, it is difficult to sit down there and disagree, however whereas the victory at Newcastle within the FA Cup on Saturday predicted properly, it appeared to influence him to go for one thing formidable on the Bernabeu.

The efficiency at St James’ Park was good; the wingers have been vibrant, having returned from harm lately, and City did properly with a again three in possession, somewhat than sending their full-backs vast. When Guardiola was requested to outline what his staff is all about, he referenced the best way they’d performed at Newcastle.

Whatever individuals considered the line-up earlier than kick-off, in favor or not, it felt like City have been going for an enormous win. This was a Madrid staff that has misplaced a couple of video games lately and are with out star names, together with Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo.

Marc Guehi reacts on the finish of City’s heavy defeat in Spain (Oscar Del Pozo/Getty Images)

It is tempting to consider that Guardiola smelled blood and needed to place his previous rivals to the sword of their own yard, however that’s not particularly Guardiola-like. For him to make shocking modifications in huge video games, often Champions League video games, can in all probability be anticipated. For him to attempt to blow a staff out of the water within the first leg, on the threat of being undone on the counter-attack and leaving the second leg near a misplaced trigger, it shouldn’t be like him in any respect.

There is an extended record of Guardiola brainwaves through the years, and an excellent longer one of many instances he has thrown in a curveball however no person remembers it as a result of they gained. One of their best nights, the 2-1 victory over Liverpool in 2019, felt a bit bizarre, with Danilo at right-back and Aymeric Laporte at left-back. There was uproar in 2023 when he picked what appeared to be a possession-focused aspect against RB Leipzig.

“Like the Twitter guys or like all the people, I have more info,” Guardiola mentioned after that one. “I am sorry. I’m right, today I’m right.” City had gained 7-0.

Those have been the times when Guardiola would face a Champions League recreation trying to preserve issues tight and below management, one thing he would basically at all times do in huge matches away from dwelling.

He really did that within the first leg against Leipzig, a boring 1-1 draw that paved the best way for the second leg annihilation. They did that against Madrid two rounds later, securing a 1-1 draw earlier than a historic 4-0 trouncing. They drew 5 of their away video games within the season they gained it, and they didn’t make many modifications to their line-up all through the knockout levels both.

Nor did they on the best way to the 2021 ultimate, which was the primary season he had performed that. And then within the ultimate he didn’t decide both Rodri or Fernandinho, the one determination that may typically be introduced up in late-night conversations amongst City followers endlessly extra (that mentioned, neither of these gamers have been of their prime, and the biggest mistake, one which many say Guardiola and his employees regretted most, was bringing in Raheem Sterling, who had been out of the line-up for weeks).

No matter the identification of the gamers, the aim has often been the identical. Control. Keep issues tight. Don’t do something silly.

That is what makes Wednesday evening’s defeat, and the backstory to it, so shocking. Keeping issues tight away from house is a basic a part of the Guardiola playbook. During his time at Bayern Munich, he mentioned his determination to take heed to his gamers and go all-out assault against Real Madrid, somewhat than do issues his possession-focused method, was “the biggest f***-up of my career”.

Maybe Wednesday evening’s defeat is simply too recent within the reminiscence however he appeared to make the same determination for the sport on the Bernabeu and the mistake could be thought of equally sized.

We might solely get the total context in time. On Tuesday evening, he was speaking concerning the want for City to consider in themselves. “We have to visualize, ‘Oh, we are able to do good things, we can arrive in good stages’ and be aware that we can do it. Otherwise, it will be a next step and next season we will be back and we will do it again.”

If he’s at City subsequent season and he has — a minimum of — yet one more try and win the Champions League, there’s at all times the possibility for redemption, but when he left this summer season, and presumably stepped away from membership administration for good, this could be his final recreation on the Bernabeu and his final try and win the European Cup. It could additionally be the third yr in a row that City have been knocked out by Madrid since they gained it in 2023.

Whenever Guardiola leaves City, he’ll be feted, rightly, as one of many best coaches in soccer historical past, and nights like these will be a footnote, however the newest defeat in Madrid feels so careless.