Penn State basketball vs. Minnesota on Peacock & NBC Sports Network

Daniel Gallen and I do predictions for Penn State’s Big Ten games.

MARK BRENNAN

COMMENT: The Golden Gophers are 1-8 away from Williams Arena, which may explain why a team checking in at No. 82 in the NCAA NET Rankings opened as just a 1-point favorite against a No. 135 Penn State team that remains the only Big Ten squad that’s winless in conference play. Minnesota’s six-game losing streak may have something to do with that, too.

But a closer inspection of the Gophers’ schedule indicates they’ve been significantly more competitive against the league. Of the six defeats, one was by more than 10 points, and that was against a really good Nebraska outfit. Two came in overtime. One more was by three points and another by four — without leading scorer Cade Tyson at Wisconsin after blowing a 20-point lead. That’s the same Badgers’ squad that crushed PSU by 27 Jan. 22.

I summarized the Nittany Lions’ horrific defensive numbers above, and that has to eat at a coach like Mike Rhoades, who has hung his hat on getting strong defensive efforts out of his team — no matter how otherwise talented — throughout his nine Division I seasons before arriving in Happy Valley.

But this group? It currently sports the lowest effective field defense percentage (57.9) and lowest 2-point field goal percentage defense (58.1) of Rhoades’ entire DI career. And with only Big Ten opponents remaining, those figures are likely to get worse.

PREDICTION: Minnesota 78, Penn State 71 (MINN -7, 149 overall)

SEASON RECORD: 9-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U

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DANIEL GALLEN

COMMENT: The advanced models from KenPom and Torvik project a close contest. The former has it as a one-point game. The latter has it as about a three-point game. But given how Penn State has played up and down to its opponents, do we really have a read on how things will go with Minnesota visiting the Bryce Jordan Center?

Right now, it appears the best indicator in helping predict a game is whichever team has a player that can take it over. Penn State has a pair of guards who can get hot and score consistently in Kayden Mingo and Freddie Dilione, but both have experienced some quiet stretches recently, and neither feels like the type of scorer who can go off like the opposing players who have gone off against the Nittany Lions this season.

Minnesota, though, has one of those players. Golden Gophers guard/forward Cade Tyson, who spent last season at North Carolina after two seasons at Belmont to begin his career, is averaging 20.1 points per game. He missed Minnesota’s most recent game with a sprained ankle and his status is uncertain for Sunday. He has nine games with at least 20 points, and he’s gone over 30 points on two occasions. He’s the type of player who can get hot and change a game, and he profiles as the type of talent that the Nittany Lions have struggled to limit this season.

If Minnesota doesn’t have Tyson, then the Golden Gophers might be in a certain level of trouble. But with where things are right now, it’s tough to give Penn State the benefit of the doubt.

PREDICTION: Minnesota 85, Penn State 75 (MINN -10, 160 total)

SEASON RECORD: 10-0 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U

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