Our favorite picks for Tuesday, February 24
The ATP and WTA Tours are at present in full swing. We’re only a week away from the beginning of the 2026 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, which is taken into account the “fifth Slam.” However, there’s nonetheless some high-leverage tennis to be performed earlier than that, as the lads are taking part in 500-level occasions in Dubai and Acapulco — whereas others are taking part in in Santiago (250). Meanwhile, the ladies are in both Merida (500) or Austin (250). With that in thoughts, now we have loads to cowl over the subsequent couple of days. I’ll be writing up my tennis finest bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll put up my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks web page for Sunday. That mentioned, preserve studying for my tennis finest bets for Tuesday, February 24.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis performs to the VSiN picks web page. He does an excellent job handicapping tennis. That web page can also be the place I put up all of my Challenger-level picks + performs for all the tournaments I’m not writing up every day.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Denis Shapovalov – Dubai
Shapovalov is coming off one other prolonged run in Dallas. After having received the occasion final yr, Shapovalov went all the way in which to the semifinals this yr. That mentioned, it is arduous to poke holes within the Canadian’s type proper now. However, Carreno Busta has received 4 of his final 5 matches. All of the victories did are available in qualifying, so that you would possibly need to take that with a grain of salt. But he did earn wins over Botic van de Zandschulp and Luca Nardi to get into the principle draw right here, and people are two gamers who’ve performed some good issues recently.
I simply assume that Carreno Busta generally is a troublesome matchup for Shapovalov, as he is an excellent counter-puncher and a high-IQ participant. I do know he is not pretty much as good as he was once, however he nonetheless has slightly left within the tank. I feel there is a good probability he’ll deal with himself properly in among the longer rallies on this match, as his backhand is sweet sufficient to carry up in opposition to the Shapovalov forehand. I additionally love his forehand to interrupt down the Shapovalov one-handed backhand.
Carreno Busta has additionally been fairly good in opposition to lefties in his profession. According to Tennis Abstract, he is 51-38 in opposition to southpaws on the tour stage, and eight of these losses got here in opposition to Rafael Nadal. Carreno Busta can also be 5-2 on this very matchup, and he is 5-1 in opposition to Shapovalov on arduous courts.
Bet: Carreno Busta +1.5 Sets (-161 – 1.5 models) & Carreno Busta ML (+200 – 0.5 models)
Jenson Brooksby vs. Zizou Bergs – Dubai
Bergs is simply 4-5 because the begin of the 2026 season, however the eye check says that he has put his second-half struggles from 2025 behind him. Still, Bergs will be fairly erratic, as he performs an aggressive model of tennis. He needs to finish rallies in a rush, which is why he’s such an up-and-down performer. Well, Brooksby is the precise reverse of that. The American is a counter-puncher and a grinder, trying to outlast his opponents. He’s going to get a number of pictures again in play, which may frustrate Bergs. Brooksby additionally performs with some selection, making it arduous for opponents to search out their rhythm. That’s one other factor working in opposition to Bergs right here. He would possibly by no means get snug on this match.
Brooksby will simply must discover a solution to get the serve going. He’s holding at a 74.1% clip this season, and his ace fee is down at 2.4%. Those numbers are unacceptable for a participant making an attempt to play his manner again into the top-50. But I do assume he is slightly higher with the ball on his racquet than he has proven recently, so there could possibly be some constructive regression coming quickly.
Bet: Brooksby ML (-114)
Otto Virtanen vs. Tallon Griekspoor – Dubai
This is trying like a season from hell for Griekspoor up to now, as he is 3-7 and has been slightly banged up. Griekspoor’s serve is often an enormous weapon, but it surely hasn’t been there to begin this yr. He’s additionally not taking part in as properly when trying to swing out of his footwear from the again of the court docket. Well, Griekspoor’s early-season struggles make this appear like a main upset spot. Not solely is the Dutchman struggling however Virtanen is significantly better than his rating suggests. The 24-year-old is a harmful all-courter, he has a stable serve, and he is beginning to actually discover himself once more.
Virtanen ended the 2025 season with some profitable Challenger runs, and he comes into this one on a four-match successful streak. He additionally occurred to beat each Aleksandar Vukic and Jan Lennard Struff in qualifying right here, which ought to set him up properly to play this match. Both of these guys are serve-heavy gamers, very similar to Griekspoor. That mentioned, Virtanen needs to be prepared for what’s coming. He simply has to remain dialed in and hope his physique would not let him down.
Bet: Virtanen ML (+115)
Added Plays
I normally have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those performs rely in direction of my report and have been a giant a part of my success this season. Make certain you examine them out. I’ll most likely add a number of extra over there, so refresh that web page all through the day when you’re trying for motion.
