NBA Playoffs: What to expect in Thunder-Spurs series
Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren completed first and second, respectively, in Kia Defensive Player of the Year voting this season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder misplaced 18 video games on their manner to an NBA-best 64 victories through the 2025-26 common season. Four of the losses had been in opposition to the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs’ lopsided success in opposition to the Thunder provides one other coat of intrigue to an already fascinating matchup between the Thunder and Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.
The defending champion Thunder are a possible dynasty in an period when no group has repeated because the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018, and the Spurs are on a mission to dethrone the Thunder and begin talks of their very own rule.
But beating a group in the common season is one factor. Winning 4 of seven in opposition to Oklahoma City is altogether completely different – and far more troublesome. The playoffs are a unique beast with the ups and downs of a possession, 1 / 4, a half, a sport, a series.
Stars are blazing, too.
Kia MVP winner (OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 2024-25). MVP candidates (Gilgeous-Alexander and San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama in 2025-26). All-NBA performers (Gilgeous-Alexander in previous seasons and sure Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren this season). Kia Defensive Player of the Year (Wembanyama) and All-Defensive candidates in 2025-26 (Wembanyama and teammate Stephon Castle, and Oklahoma City’s Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Lu Dort). Kia Sixth Man of the Year (Spurs’ Keldon Johnson this season). A one-time Coach of the Year (Oklahoma City’s Mark Daigneault in 2023-24). A Coach of the Year finalist in 2025-26 (San Antonio’s Mitch Johnson).
Game 1 Monday in Oklahoma City (8:30 ET, NBC/Peacock) cannot get right here quick sufficient.
Series schedule
Here’s how to watch the Thunder vs. Spurs series:
All occasions Eastern Standard Time
* = If obligatory
Regular-season outcomes
Top storyline
Oklahoma City’s depth. The Thunder’s 10-deep rotation, which incorporates Wallace off the bench, overwhelmed the Phoenix Suns in the first round and the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals.
The Thunder’s starters have a plus-11.3 factors per 100 possessions web score, and their reserves’ web score is plus-7.8 factors per 100 possessions in the playoffs.
Not together with Jalen Williams, a starter who has missed the previous six video games with a hamstring damage, the Thunder have performed 10 guys at least 10 minutes per gameand 9 common not less than 6.5 factors in the playoffs, together with Gilgeous-Alexander (29.1 factors, 7.1 assists per sport), Holmgren (18.6 factors, 9.1 rebounds) and breakout star Ajay Mitchell (18.8 factors, 4.9 assists, 4.0 rebounds per sport).
Jared McCain and Wallace are taking pictures higher than 46% on 3-pointers, and Mitchell, Holmgren, Dort, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams are not less than 36% from that vary. Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 9.9 factors and eight.8 rebounds and is taking pictures 75.6%.
The roster is full of ballhawks who produce steals, deflections and blocked photographs. It’s as shut to plug-and-play all through the rotation as a group can get with no drop-off in manufacturing. Getting Williams again for this series is a robust risk, too.
Keep your eyes on
Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama has proven all of the indicators of dwelling up to the second because the stakes enhance with every sport. But that is additionally his first playoffs and all of the bodily, emotional and psychological experiences that include it. How does he carry out with a spot in the NBA Finals on the road? It’s a riveting subplot for the 7-foot-4, 22-year-old forward-center.
He had one second when he misplaced his composure, elbowing Naz Reid and getting ejected for a flagrant foul two. Playoff lesson realized. He is aware of he wants to be on the courtroom for the Spurs to achieve success. This postseason, the Spurs rating 118.3 factors and permit 96.4 factors per 100 possessions with Wembanyama on the court and 112.2/105.1 with him on the bench. It’s nonetheless a constructive web score when he isn’t in the sport however it’s a 14.8 distinction when he is in the sport.
He is a singular difference-maker.
In 10 playoff video games – actually lower than that contemplating the flagrant two – Wembanyama averages 20.3 factors, 10.7 rebounds, 4.1 blocks and a couple of.4 assists and shoots 53.8% from the sector, 34.1% on 3s and 84.5% on free throws.
It’s not solely how Wembanyama performs however how the Thunder decides to guard him on one finish of the courtroom and reduces his effectiveness as a rim protector on the opposite. Oklahoma City has measurement with the 7-foot-1 Holmgren and 7-foot Hartenstein, in order that dueling technique will probably be price watching.
One other thing to look ahead to every group
For Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Lakers’ plan targeted on getting the basketball out of Gilgeous-Alexander’s palms and making different gamers beat them.
What will the Spurs do in opposition to Gilgeous-Alexander? They have higher perimeter defenders and extra depth than the Lakers, giving them extra choices in opposition to him. But at this stage of his sport, Gilgeous-Alexander, additionally the 2025 Finals MVPunderstands how he can affect the sport with out scoring as a lot as his season common. Can the Spurs disrupt their sport sufficient to make a distinction?
For San Antonio: The magnitude of the second.
Many Spurs gamers, together with Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Carter Bryant and coach Mitch Johnson, are taking part in their first playoff run. While De’Aaron Fox is a veteran, he had only one playoff series prior to April.
This is unfamiliar territory for a younger Spurs squad, and to date, they’ve handed the checks. The Minnesota Timberwolves took a 1-0 series lead in the conference semi-finalsand the matchup was tied at 2-2. The Spurs then gained at residence in Game 5 and dominated the Timberwolves in Game 6 on the highway.
But taking part in the Thunder in a best-of-7 presents a brand new and tougher problem. This rivalry is rising in depth, and the Spurs are coming for the Thunder, and the Thunder try to maintain off that cost.
One key quantity to know
12.0 — Over their eight playoff video games, the Thunder have scored a median of 12.0 extra factors per 100 possessions than their opponents allowed in the common season. Oklahoma City had the league’s No. 1 protection for the second straight season, but it surely’s been the offense that has fueled its 8-0 begin. The Thunder protection has been about half nearly as good because the offense, permitting 6.5 fewer factors per 100 possessions than their opponents scored in the common season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has led the best way with 29.1 points per game on a real taking pictures share of 63.1%, what could be his best mark in his 5 postseasons. But the Thunder have additionally been slightly more efficient with him on the bench (126.2 scored per 100) than they have been with him on the ground (124.6 scored per 100), though Jalen Williams has missed the final six video games. That’s an enormous change from the common season, when the offense was sub-par when Gilgeous-Alexander was off the ground.
The Spurs have had the No. 1 defense in the playoffs, and so they had the second best regular- defenseseason in opposition to the Thunder, permitting simply 109.2 per 100 over the 5 conferences. That contains simply 99.6 allowed per 100 in Victor Wembanyama’s 126 minutes on the ground in opposition to the defending champs.
—John Schuhmann
The choose
Thunder in six. The Spurs are actually good, little question about that. It’s simply not their time. Not but.
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Jeff Zillgitt has coated the NBA since 2008. You can e mail him at jzillgitt@nba.comdiscover his archive here and follow him on.
