Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani: Picks, predictions, more
One of boxing’s elite returns to the ring Saturday for what could possibly be his hardest check but. Naoya Inoue defends his undisputed junior featherweight championship in opposition to Junto Nakatani (DAZN, 3 am ET) at Tokyo Dome.
Nakatani might be making his second look at junior featherweight in an all-Japanese showdown between two of the game’s most harmful punchers. Both are multidivision champions and ranked amongst ESPN’s pound-for-pound bestInoue at No. 2 and Nakatani at No. 6. Inoue is one in all solely three males to change into undisputed in two divisions — alongside Oleksandr Usyk and Terence Crawford — While Nakatani has additionally held titles at junior bantamweight, bantamweight and flyweight.
Inoue (32-0, 27 KOs) is coming off a dominant decision win over David Picasso in December, with scores of 119-109, 120-108 and 117-111 — his fourth victory of 2025, and enters the battle in opposition to Nakatani as a -400 favourite to win, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. On that very same card, Nakatani (32-0, 24 KOs) edged Sebastian Hernandez by scores of 115-113, 115-113 and 118-110 to safe the Inoue matchup.
Can Inoue’s motion and physique work neutralize Nakatani’s southpaw energy and disrupt his jab?
ESPN requested two former champions and a boxing insider to interrupt down the battle and make their picks.
Editor’s be aware: Content has been edited for brevity and readability.
Jorge Linares, former three-division champion
The matchup
I’ve all the time been a giant fan of Inoue, however I feel that is Nakatani’s second. This is the hardest battle he will face in his profession to this point, and I feel it is a battle he can deal with. I feel it’s going to go the gap, however something can occur, like a knockdown. Most possible Inoue’s taking place.
How does Nakatani win?
What he must do, above all, is field him. Take a threat by throwing a number of punches, however not too many, as a result of Inoue’s reactions are sometimes a lot sooner than his. But he has to field him and be very good about all these highly effective punches Inoue throws.
Something particular for Nakatani to do needs to be utilizing his lead jab and left-handed counterpunches loads more. Nakatani is a southpaw, and Inoue does not actually like combating left-handers.
How does Inoue win?
Inoue ought to focus primarily on combating at shut vary as a result of that is his energy. Inoue is admittedly good on the quick and mid ranges. And deal with physique punches, like he is been doing recently. Those are brutal.
Inoue does not throw that many punches, however the ones he does throw are very highly effective. And his timing is impeccable, too. It’s spectacular, exact, particularly the counterattack.
Who wins?
This is a troublesome battle to foretell — truthfully, it is 50-50 — and the primary time I’ve severely questioned whether or not Inoue might lose. I feel it may be very shut, very shut. I’ll go along with Nakatani.
Alexandro Santiago, former bantamweight champion, fought Nakatani in 2024
The matchup
This goes to be a very good battle. Each fighter has his personal model. Nakatani is aware of how you can use his attain very well; he is an extended southpaw. And the instances Inoue has been knocked down, it has been by fighters in a southpaw stance. Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas caught him when he switched southpaw, and Inoue simply crashed into them. And Nakatani is a robust southpaw.
How does Inoue win?
I feel Inoue should not wait round however go on the offensive — and do it rigorously, very rigorously, as a result of Nakatani is admittedly good at managing the gap and counterattacking. But we noticed with Sebastian Hernandez, for instance, within the later rounds, that the hot button is to shut that hole on Nakatani and begin touchdown punches. Francisco Rodriguez Jr. did the identical factor once they fought in 2022. Basically, maintain Nakatani below strain. I feel Nakatani is more weak below strain, and that is what Inoue has to do — go in and assault. Inoue has nice timing — you possibly can inform he hits actually exhausting. And we all know that Inoue may be very good, so he can do a greater job than previous Nakatani opponents and win the battle.
When I fought Nakatani, the plan was touchdown blow after blow, nevertheless it’s about holding the strain on, staying on prime of him and hitting him from prime to backside.
How does Nakatani win?
I feel his recreation plan goes to be to maintain his distance and land his lengthy energy punches, making an attempt to maintain Inoue at a distance and hit him from there. He’ll need to not let Inoue get in shut, as a result of we all know Inoue is admittedly harmful, and as soon as he will get in shut, he can end the battle.
Nakatani goes to make use of his attain to his benefit — he is aware of how you can use it very well. The factor is, Inoue goes to have the ability to counterpunch effectively. Inoue has been knocked down, however, as they are saying, he is “The Monster,” and he will attempt to shut that distance and make it his battle.
Who wins?
The battle might go both approach, as a result of Nakatani hits exhausting too. He may land a shot on Inoue, however Inoue can also be very, very good and will finish the battle as effectively. I’m going with Inoue.
Al Bernstein, Hall of Fame boxing commentator
The matchup
Even although Nakatani wasn’t as spectacular the final trip as he usually is, I feel we are able to take a look at that as an aberration and never learn an excessive amount of into it. So he will be as ready and as prepared as he could be for this battle. And it doesn’t matter what end result, it could appear virtually unattainable — barring a reduce or another unusual damage in the course of the battle — for this to not be a really, excellent match. Both males are wonderful. Probably the sting in energy goes to Inoue; he is been at greater weights more typically, he has already been at greater weights than Nakatani. That could possibly be the wild card on this factor, however Nakatani can also be a very good puncher and naturally is a really expert fighter. So to me, it simply looks like it’s virtually destined to be a terrific battle.
How does Inoue win?
I feel he will need to land early. I’ve referenced the ability half as a result of usually he is been on the greater weights. A whole lot of instances, once we consider that, it will probably take away from the truth that Inoue is without doubt one of the greatest ring technicians, definitely in boxing at present and among the best we have seen in an extended, very long time. He’s a incredible ring technician. He could be a true boxer-puncher on this battle. And I feel that is type of what he desires to be. He desires to attempt to dictate the tempo of the battle, however not in a purely offensive approach. In latest fights, we have seen him be tactical in his motion in opposition to fighters that he did not knock out, that weren’t going away. And so I do not suppose we’ll see an Inoue who’s saying, “Well, I’m going to go in there and I’m just going to shoot for the knockout and really try and impose my will completely on him because I think he’s coming up in weight and I’m probably the bigger, stronger guy.” I feel we’ll see a boxer-puncher method from Inoue, which I feel might be a sensible concept.
And the appropriate hand, in fact, goes to be a giant weapon for him in opposition to Nakatani. We’ll see if that’s what makes the distinction. But on the finish of the day, I feel simply his energy and the truth that he is a barely larger, possibly stronger man could possibly be the distinction.
How does Nakatani win?
Nakatani has some issues coming into this battle that definitely make him more than a reside underdog. Even although Inoue has finished very effectively in opposition to different lefties, they’ve had a few good moments in opposition to him. Nakatani brings that southpaw stance to the dance. He is a very good quantity puncher, which I feel is an actual plus in opposition to Inoue, as a result of if you can begin off throwing numerous punches, you stand the prospect of stifling a few of Inoue’s offense and never permitting him to reset as properly as he desires to. And that I feel could possibly be a key for Nakatani.
There’s going to need to be numerous quantity by Nakatani, however good quantity, clearly. I truthfully suppose we’ll know by concerning the third or fourth spherical whether or not the ability of Inoue is the distinction. If he lands one thing of be aware and hurts Nakatani, that is one factor. But past that, even when the ability of Inoue makes Nakatani much less aggressive and a more cautious boxer, we’ll know that by, I feel, Round 4 or so. And if that is not the case, effectively, buckle up your seatbelts as a result of it may be an important journey nonetheless lengthy it lasts.
For Nakatani, it is type of vital for him to make some type of offensive assertion within the first three or 4 rounds, whether or not it is quantity that stops a few of Inoue’s assault or an influence punch that tells Inoue he is obtained some pop. So yeah, the start of the battle is vital for each males. I do not know if both man goes to throw warning to the wind, however I do suppose it is more vital for Nakatani.
Who wins?
I’d keep on with Inoue. But, in fact, there’s an excellent probability Nakatani can win this battle. I’m going with Inoue as a result of he is the larger, most likely stronger man, and in addition he has more methods to win this battle than Nakatani does. But I totally anticipate it may be a aggressive and nice battle.
