Men’s NCAA Tournament: 7 Teams That Could Earn No. 1 Seeds

What an incredible few weeks this has been in men’s college basketball, where one of the most fascinating seasons in recent memory continues building toward what could be an unforgettable NCAA Tournament. 

Earlier this month, teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4 and 5 in the AP poll all lost in the span of four days, with top-ranked Arizona falling twice in the same week after beginning the season unbeaten through its first 23 games. And then No. 2 Houston, which received a first-place vote in this week’s poll, was upended by No. 6 Iowa State after squandering a second-half lead on the road. Chaos reigned atop the sport.

All of which set the stage for an unbelievable pair of games on Saturday when No. 1 Michigan faces No. 3 Duke on a neutral floor in Washington, D.C. and No. 2 Houston hosts No. 4 Arizona — both matchups worthy of the Final Four. By the end of the weekend, there should finally be some clarity surrounding which teams could earn a 1-seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. So here’s a breakdown of the likeliest candidates: 

• Record: 25-1 (15-1 Big Ten)
• Rankings: No. 1 AP, No. 1 NET, No. 1 KenPom, No. 1 Torvik, No. 1 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Gonzaga, Villanova, Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue
• Bad losses: None

Michigan’s Elliot Cadeau drives previous Purdue’s Fletcher Loyer (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Images)

By opening a 20-point lead on the highway at No. 7 Purdue on Tuesday evening after which holding on for a comparatively comfy double-digit victory, Michigan possible moved itself inside a whisker of clinching a 1-seed within the NCAA Tournament barring an surprising dropping streak down the stretch. Even if the Wolverines fall towards No. 3 Duke this weekend in a mouthwatering non-conference tilt, and even when they discover the highway at No. 10 Illinois later this month, the dominance they’ve proven to this point amid the most effective begin in program historical past might nonetheless be sufficient for the choice committee to put head coach Dusty May’s group on the highest line.

Michigan is the one workforce within the nation that ranks among the many prime 5 nationally in each offensive and defensive effectivity, and 21 of the Wolverines’ 25 complete victories this season have come by a minimum of 10 factors. This is an elite workforce at each ends of the ground due to May’s shrewd roster building and the college’s aggressive NIL efforts that, sources say, are at — or very shut — the highest of faculty basketball. At this level, the Wolverines have the within observe towards the No. 1 total seed.

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• Record: 24-2 (13-1 ACC)
• Rankings: No. 3 AP, No. 2 NET, No. 2 KenPom, No. 5 Torvik, No. 2 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Kansas, Arkansas, Florida, Michigan State, Louisville (x2)
• Bad losses: None

Duke’s Dame Sarr (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)

Barring some sort of surprising, late-season collapse, Duke can all however guarantee itself of a prime seed within the NCAA Tournament by beating No. 1 Michigan in a marquee non-conference sport to be performed this weekend on a impartial ground. Even if Saturday’s showdown with the Wolverines goes awry, there is a sturdy likelihood Duke has already completed sufficient to land someplace on the bracket’s prime line.

The Blue Devils are one in every of solely three groups to rank among the many prime 10 nationally in each offensive and defensive effectivity this season, in line with KenPom, with such a balanced strategy producing the fifth-best scoring margin within the nation at plus-19.8 factors per sport. A trio of early season, non-conference victories over Kansas, Arkansas and Florida added some mandatory oomph to Duke’s résumé in a yr when the ACC solely produced three groups within the newest AP ballot, one in every of which Duke nonetheless hasn’t confronted (Virginia). Adding one other such win over Michigan may very well be pivotal now that the regular-season finale towards rival North Carolina, which defeated Duke earlier this month, could be performed with out injured Tar Heels star Caleb Wilson.

• Record: 23-2 (10-2 Big 12)
• Rankings: No. 4 AP, No. 3 NET, No. 3 KenPom, No. 3 Torvik, No. 3 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Florida, UConn, Alabama, BYU, San Diego State
• Bad losses: None

Arizona’s Jaden Bradley dribbles the ball towards Texas Tech’s Donovan Atwell (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

It took till the second week of February earlier than somebody lastly cracked what appeared like an impregnable Arizona squad beneath fifth-year head coach Tommy Lloyd. By the time the Wildcats lastly suffered their first loss on the highway at then-No. 9 Kansas earlier this month, they’d already compiled a ledger that included six wins over ranked opponents and the sixth-best scoring margin within the nation at plus-19.6 factors per sport.

But now Arizona has dropped the primary two video games in a brutal ending stretch that features upcoming dates with No. 23 BYU (house), No. 2 Houston (away), No. 8 Kansas (house) and No. 6 Iowa State (house). And whereas that assortment of opponents represents greater than sufficient expertise for the Wildcats to cement themselves as a No. 1 seed within the NCAA Tournament with just a few extra high-level wins, it is also a mandatory proving floor for a workforce that has — a minimum of that far — performed the Big 12’s best convention slate, in line with KenPom. There could be extra potential seeding variance for the Wildcats than any workforce on this listing relying on how they reply within the coming weeks.

• Record: 24-2 (14-1 Big East)
• Rankings: No. 5 AP, No. 10 NET, No. 9 KenPom, No. 9 Torvik, No. 7 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida, Villanova
• Bad losses: None

UConn Huskies huddle throughout the sport towards the Butler Bulldogs (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

An attention-grabbing marketing campaign for the Huskies and head coach Dan Hurley appears to be unfolding in two distinct elements because the common season nears its conclusion. First got here an extremely troublesome non-conference slate through which UConn established itself among the many greatest groups within the nation by scoring neutral-site wins over BYU, Illinois and Florida, plus a real highway win over Kansas. That the Huskies solely misplaced to Arizona by 4 factors at house on an evening when starters Tarris Reed Jr. and Braylon Mullins had been unavailable resulting from harm highlighted the workforce’s Final Four potential.

Next got here a plunge into Big East play that started with 12 consecutive victories and 14 wins out of 15 total getting into Wednesday’s matchup with Creighton. But seven of these wins have come by 10 factors or fewer, together with two in time beyond regulation, and that has invited questions on UConn’s ceiling provided that that is unquestionably a down yr for the convention. Getting out-muscled and outworked by then-No. 22 St. John’s on Feb. 6 uncovered among the Huskies’ flaws. They’ll want a greater exhibiting within the rematch towards St. John’s at house on Feb. 25.

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• Record: 23-3 (10-3 Big 12)
• Rankings: No. 6 AP, No. 5 NET, No. 7 KenPom, No. 7 Torvik, No. 9 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: St. John’s, Purdue, Kansas, Houston
• Bad losses: Cincinnati, TCU

Iowa State’s Nate Heise takes a shot as Houston’s Kingston Flemings defends (Photo by David Ok ​​Purdy/Getty Images)

The Cyclones are an enchanting case research whose candidacy for a possible top-line seed rocketed to a different degree with their come-from-behind house victory over No. 2 Houston earlier this week. Few groups across the nation, if any, can match the top-end wins Iowa State has compiled over then-No. 14 St. John’s, then-No. 1 Purdue, then-No. 9 Kansas and the Cougars. At its greatest, head coach TJ Otzelberger’s workforce can unleash a hailstorm from past the arc (fourth nationally in 3-point share) and pair it with a protection that ranks eighth within the nation for effectivity.

But of all of the applications in consideration for No. 1 seeds, the Cyclones are saddled with arguably the worst loss to Cincinnati, a workforce that’s 14-12 total and sits beneath .500 in convention play. Remaining video games towards No. 23 BYU and No. 4 Arizona — to not point out one other ranked opponent or two within the Big 12 Tournament — imply there are nonetheless loads of probabilities for Iowa State to distance itself from that ugly consequence and safe a prime seed.

• Record: 21-5 (12-3 Big Ten)
• Rankings: No. 10 AP, No. 4 NET, No. 5 KenPom, No. 6 Torvik, No. 6 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Purdue, Nebraska
• Bad losses: None

Illinois’ Jake Davis (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

There’s no query that the largest hurdle standing between Illinois and a possible top-line seed within the NCAA Tournament is an enormous house sport towards No. 1 Michigan on Feb. 27, the results of which might even have a major impression on the Big Ten title race. A modest assortment of opponents on both facet of that matchup — USC, UCLA, Oregon and Maryland — make it unlikely the Illini will stumble earlier than the convention event, other than a possible defeat to the Wolverines.

Head coach Brad Underwood and his workforce have compiled an attention-grabbing résumé that’s void of damaging losses however solely contains one non-conference victory over an opponent ranked within the newest AP ballot (No. 13 Texas Tech). They fell quick in different high-profile, neutral-site matchups towards Alabama and UConn. Yet, in terms of among the superior metrics, Illinois is as spectacular as any workforce within the nation — particularly contemplating the long-term harm to level guard Kylan Boswell, who just lately returned to the lineup. The Illini lead the nation in offensive effectivity by almost three full factors per 100 possessions, in line with KenPom.

• Record: 23-3 (11-2 Big 12)
• Rankings: No. 2 AP, No. 6 NET, No. 4 KenPom, No. 2 Torvik, No. 4 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Arkansas, Texas Tech, BYU
• Bad losses: None

Houston’s Kalifa Sakho dunks towards the Iowa State Cyclones (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)

Houston is one other workforce for which the attention take a look at and superior metrics inform a greater story than the résumé itself. Aside from a powerful victory over then-No. 14 Arkansas on Dec. 20, not one of the Cougars’ notable non-conference matchups aged significantly properly, with groups like Auburn, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Florida State all crumbling to various levels. All advised, Houston’s non-conference slate ranked 157th nationally, which is the second-lowest of any workforce on this listing behind solely Iowa State (270th).

Still, head coach Kelvin Sampson presides over a bunch that now ranks ninth nationally in offensive effectivity and seventh nationally in defensive effectivity, inserting Houston among the many prime 25 in each classes for an unbelievable eighth consecutive season. This yr’s squad boasts extra scoring punch from freshman phenom Kingston Flemings (16.6 factors, 5.3 assists per sport), whereas sustaining Sampson’s trademark tenacity on the defensive finish. A loss to Iowa State earlier this week heaps extra stress on the Cougars to carry out properly in subsequent video games towards Arizona (Feb. 21) and Kansas (Feb. 23) that might be carefully watched by bracketologists.